Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251845 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 245 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARMTH AND HUMIDITY HAVE RETURNED TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMTH AND MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANGES TO AN ALREADY WARM TEMP FORECAST WERE NOT APPRECIABLE. ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS INCLUDED AN UPWARD BUMP FOR SCT...I.E. CHANCE NUMBERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE PBZ COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY AS NAM AND GFS PERSIST IN PROGRESSING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...THESE HAVE BEEN WEATHER LABELED AS SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY ON VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID LEVEL WARMTH. AN EXCEPTION WAS MADE FOR THE ZANESVILLE AND NEW PHILADELPHIA CORRIDOR WHERE WARMTH AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS MAY JUST SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGTH THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EARLY THIS EVE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE FUNNEL OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION...AT LEAST UNTIL THE ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSION SHUNTS THE PLUME EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS PER THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. CHANCE...TO LIKELY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED FOR THE PERIOD. THE BEST OVERALL POPS AT MOMENT ARE STILL PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TODAYS MODEL RUNS ARE FASTER IN PUSHING THE PARENT MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE TAP EASTWARD...SO THOSE LIKELY NUMBERS WERE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS WELL. THE SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE COMPROMISED BY WARM MID LEVELS AND A MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...BUT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND TRAINING MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WANES LATER ON WEDNESDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMP PROGNOSIS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONVERGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION. THE SURFACE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD UNTIL REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO GREAT PLAINS TROUGHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN MODEL MAGNITUDE...POSITIONING...AND TIMING DISPUTES...PERSISTENCE WILL RULE THE LONG TERM FORECAST STRATEGY. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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GENLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ERODING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED...TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LOCAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY SPAWN A STRATUS/STRATOCU LAYER EARLY ON TUESDAY. TAFS THUS INCLUDE A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AND A LATE PERIOD...LOW END VFR CLOUD BASE FORECAST AS A LOW CONFIDENCE HEDGE. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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