Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241204 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 804 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A period of above-normal temperature and increasing chances for rain is expected through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Morning update to speed up the exodus of moderate rain. Stratiform rain has really sped through the area this morning, leaving only unorganized scattered light showers in its wake. Rising upper level heights will follow the exiting wave pushing a warm front further north. By late morning, the area will be well into the ever expanding warm sector, stabilizing the atmosphere, and keeping the rest of the day dry. Southwest wind and strong warm advection will support temperatures above average, despite mostly cloudy skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A series of compact shortwave troughs will develop in the swrn CONUS and eject northeastward beginning Saturday. As the first wave acquires a negative tilt, shortwave ridging will amplify over the Great Lakes region, leading to a likely-nwd displacement of precipitation on Saturday and Saturday night. Steady height falls will begin to spread across the region Sunday morning as the ejecting wave nears. By afternoon, the associated H5 jet maximum will cross the forecast area, likely invigorating deeper convection with its passage amid modest instability.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... In the wake of the Sunday wave, a brief respite can be expected on Monday amid shortwave ridging before a second trough ejects from the Plains. This second wave will be favorable for widespread rain showers as it crosses on Tuesday as warm, moist air is drawn poleward ahead of the system. Behind the wave, seasonable air is expected to arrive mid-week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Any brief restrictions seen with the passing wave and associated light rain will return to VFR by mid-morning. Scattered light rain showers will linger through late morning, before a return to mainly dry weather in the warm sector of a broad low pressure system. Additional moisture will pool along a warm front located just north of the area tonight. This could bring restrictions with ceilings descending to low MVFR or IFR for northern ports of FKL/DUJ. Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions is not expected until the approach of low pressure early on Sunday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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