Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300352 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1152 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ARE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY LATE THIS EVENING...WITH NOTABLE CLEARING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE WARM FRONT THAT LIFTED NORTHWARD EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON NOW HAVING PASSED ALL THE WAY TO THE SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUBSIDENCE TO REESTABLISH ITSELF AND WORK TO ERADICATE CLOUD COVER RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. THAT SAID...RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER HAS ALLOWED FOR ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE STRONG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALLS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND THE FRONT BOUNDARY AHEAD OF IT FOCUSING ALL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...IT WOULD SEEM CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON A FAIRLY LIMITED SCALE DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR SIMPLY DUE TO THE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO AMPLE EARLY DAY INSOLATION. SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED GREATLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND LIMITED TO PARTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR WARM AIR ALOFT. ALSO...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE LIKEWISE BEEN LIMITED MOST TO THE AFTERNOON OWING TO A LACK OF LIFTING MECHANISM THROUGH THE DAY. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF FOR POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP TIMING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...PRECLUDING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE PA/WV BORDER LATER SUNDAY...WITH A SURFACE WAVE PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG IT SUNDAY EVENING. THE WAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OUT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A DECREASE TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE NUMBERS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY USING THE LATEST GRIDDED MOS AND SREF DATA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HAVE SLOWED THE ENDING OF SHOWERS A BIT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH TRYING TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT EAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF REGION. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE FROM WPC PROGS AS DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. BY LATE WEEK HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER FROPA SUNDAY EVENING. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING MORE LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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