Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281413 AAB AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 913 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A RETURN TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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CHGS WERE MADE TO INCL RA/SN MIX GIVEN CURRENT OBS REFLECTING THIS MIX AS COLD AIR INVADES. RDG ZONES WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM SHRA TO SHSN THRU THE DAY WITH ONSET OF COLDER AMS. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND SHOWERS WILL END ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SLOWING BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. CAA WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS. THE COLDER AIR WILL REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO TONIGHT AND HOLD STEADY THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR. MODEST WIND FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY THE CAA...HOWEVER...STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW INVERSIONS...WELL BELOW SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SHOULD PREVENT ANY LAKE/OROGRAPHIC SNOW. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TUESDAY...CONCERNING IMPACTS OF COASTAL LOW. NAM/SREF REMAIN MOST AGGRESSIVE...SHOWING A MUCH MORE ENERGETIC NORTHERN WAVE...SPREADING PRECIP FURTHER NORTH THEN LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS. LATEST RUN OF THE NAM HAS MOVED TOWARD THE DRIER MODEL RUNS...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT A DRIER FORECAST IS THE WAY TO GO. WILL LEAVE IN SCHC/CHC POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL COMMENCE LATE TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE EXTENDED WILL LARGELY BE DRY WITH A DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. POTENT SHRTWV TROF XPCD TO IMPACT FCST AREA FRI NGT AND SAT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TEMPORAL CONSISTENCY...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM DIFFERS. REGARDLESS...THE SFC FEATURE PASSES TO THE NW OF THE FCST AREA...LEADING TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVCTN THAT SHOULD KEEP PCPN LIQUID. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AT ONSET...WHICH COULD SPELL A FRZG RAIN SCENARIO FOR AREAS THAT TYPICALLY RETAIN COLD AIR...SPCLY SHELTERED VLLYS IN RDG CNTYS AND NRN ZONES. POPS WERE INCRD DAY 7 GIVEN XPCD MEASURABLE PCPN...BUT UNCERTAINTY RMNS IN PCPN TYPE. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RAIN AND IFR CIGS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR STRATOCU TDA...WITH EVENTUAL VFR DVLP FM THE W WITH SBSDNC AND DRY ADVCTN. THE EXCEPTION WL BE NRN TERMINALS WHERE COLD FLOW OVR THE LAKES IS EXPECTED TO CONT FUELING MVFR STRATOCU INTO THE EVE. OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH COLD ADVCTN AND CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KRAMAR

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