Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 311835 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 235 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS MICHIGAN TO ILLINOIS WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MORNING SOUNDING FROM PITTSBURGH SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON THE FRONT HAS ONLY PRODUCED A COUPLE OF SHOWERS UPSTREAM. CONSIDERING THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE...PLUS ARRIVAL TIME AFTER SUNSET...HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF PITTSBURGH TONIGHT. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A WET OUTLIER COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF/SREF. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD COME TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AGAIN TO THE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH..
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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EXPECT DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY. CONSIDERING YESTERDAYS 12Z MODELS SPED UP FRONTAL TIMING WHILE LAST NIGHTS 00Z MODELS DELAYED THE FRONTAL TIMING...WILL NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO PRECIP TIMING EVEN THOUGH TODAYS 12Z MODELS SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY WITH 00Z MODELS. AT THIS POINT...SREF CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER COMPARED TO DETERMINISTIC MODELS. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE FRONT PASSES ON MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE WITH SEASONAL VALUES FOR EARLY AUGUST.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT DIURNAL CU DURING THE DAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF DUJ/FKL. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING DISTURBANCES.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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