Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 291702
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
102 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Unsettled but warm weather is expected through Sunday, with a
cold front expected for Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shortwave and area of showers and storms moving quickly
northeast and weakening this afternoon as system heads into the
building east coast ridge. have lowered POPs far south and
southeast ridges where boundary has already shifted north and
bulk of precip will not reach as far south. Categorical POPs
basically north of I-70 early afternoon will tails off quickly
by evening as ridge dampens out the shortwave.
Tonight developing mid level ridge should be able to shunt
front farther north, bringing warmer and more humid conditions,
and a lessening chance for showers.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm front will remain near the New York border through Sunday
night as heights rise aloft. This looks to keep a cap on
widespread activity Sunday. With a mid level ridge on Sunday
much warmer and more humid conditions will develop. Ridge begins
to break down Monday as an occluded storm system in the western
Great Lakes pushes a cold front across the region, with showers
and thunderstorms with FROPA.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A closed low will eventually move across Southern Canada
Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface reflection will move directly
under the 500 low, keeping the chance for showers in the
forecast. A cooler and unsettled pattern will continue into
late week as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TAMDAR soundings between 13Z and 15Z showed that low level wind
shear has dropped, and LLWS has been removed from all TAF sites.
As of noon, thunderstorms are mostly contained to a single line
of heavier precipitation approaching the northern West Virginia
panhandle. As this line goes through, MVFR/IFR restrictions are
expected for a brief period. Showers will continue through the
afternoon as a warm front moves slowly to the north. Once the
warm front lifts north of the area this evening, most sites
will scatter out, however some stratus may linger around
Restrictions are possible through Sun in vicinity of a surface
front. Restriction are likely with a strong cold front Sunday
night and Monday.