Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231837 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 237 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HARD TO FIND ANY CLOUDS OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS PRIMED TO DEVELOP...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT. GENERALLY WENT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOULD CONTAIN READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF BUTLER AND INDIANA...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PA/WV/MD RIDGES. HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FROST AROUND FOREST AND JEFFERSON PA COUNTIES...BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCATIONS APPROACHING FREEZING...DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS ON SUNDAY INCREASING ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM SATURDAYS READINGS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE NORTH A BIT WEST OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE REFRAIN THROUGH SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST..AND HAVE THEREFORE PULLED CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST. 12KM NAM SHOWS RAIN MOVING IN MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT CONSIDERING THE 4KM NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE...HAVE DECIDED TO BACK OFF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION AND STICK CLOSER TO THE DIURNAL TREND TO PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY THE SREF/ECMWF. AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY MIGHT FINALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A MID SUMMER PATTERN...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR AND LIGHT WIND THROUGH TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE RESTRICTIONS CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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