Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191327 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 827 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain and much warmer air will overspread the region today. Drier weather is expected tonight and through much of Wednesday, as is very warm temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Current radar imagery shows rain showers congealing over northern Ohio as the warm front approaches from the south. As this activity streams across, it will be bolstered by strong 850mb moisture transport and mid-level instability. This, combined with PWAT values well above the norm, will result in efficient rain production. Hi-res models differ on the latitudinal evolution of this line of showers and thunderstorms, so PoPs were kept a little generous on the southern flank, south of the PA Turnpike, but categorical were maintained across northern zones. We`ll need to monitor this activity closely given the recent saturation of the soils south of I-80. Warm morning temperatures will shoot upwards today, topping out in the upper 50s north to mid 60s south. The warm front will finish is transition through the area this afternoon and temporary drying should commence. Strong southerly flow in the warm sector will keep temperatures elevated through the night. Lows will largely remain in the 50s, some 25-30 degrees warmer than average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The remainder of the forecast remains mostly dry along the western edge of a ridge centered around a 500mb high off the southeast U.S. coast. Have some minimal PoPs across the north from time to time as the boundary wavers, but most, if not all, of the area should get a period of dry weather tonight, through a portion of Wednesday. Another big story will be the warming temperatures, which will push much above normal values underneath the ridge. Values above 70 degrees are likely for many on Tuesday and for a large portion of the area on Wednesday as well. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... There are still some timing differences regarding the timing of the next cold front, but a passage in the late Wednesday/early Thursday period still is expected. This will bring the next chance of rain as well as cooler temperatures, but above-normal warmth will remain. The end of the forecast remains problematic, as several shortwaves may track across the area from Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A warm front will spread showers south to north, dropping ceilings to low MVFR or IFR for a period this morning and into the early afternoon. Improvement to VFR is then expected through the remainder of the day, save for FKL/DUJ where low moisture looks to hold. Despite strong southerly flow, LLWS is expected through the entire forecast period. OUTLOOK... The risk for widespread restrictions returns late Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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