Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 200145
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
945 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
Advancing low pressure will spread more widespread rain over the
Upper Ohio Valley Region tonight and Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure developing along the front stretched over the Ohio
Valley will dig northeastward as mid level troughing amplifies
over the Plains tonight. Current convection over southern Ohio is
slowly eroding, while rain showers north of the convection congeal
further. Expecting this batch of moderate rain showers to follow
the warm front lifting northeastward across eastern Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania. This is serves as the location for
categorical PoPs tonight, along with the passage of the cold front
Leaned closer to OHRFC guidance for the QPF of this system which
projects a general one to just-over-two inches over the next 48
The Storm Prediction Center has included the immediate area in a
"marginal/5 % severe risk on Thursday due to the shear levels on
the flank of the negatively tilting upper trough. Limitations will
be imposed by instability levels, which do not look healthy for
the situation depending on model; hence, no hazardous mention will
be included for now.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Precip is expected to fade eastward through Friday with progress
of the front and supporting mid level trough/wind field. Much
cooler weather will follow for the weekend as the upper trough
develops over the Eastern CONUS. Scattered showers will remain in
the forecast through Sunday, mainly for northern and ridge zones,
as cold advection continues and shortwaves in northwest flow
traverse the area.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry, but seasonably cool conditions are anticipated as high
pressure builds for the start of the new work week. Slightly
modified Superblend guidance was used for the extended period.
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue at all sites for the next few hours.
After that time, upstream convection may clip the NW portions of
the area as it rides NEward toward Lake Erie as a warm front
rides northward. Much of the SE portion of the area enters the
warm sector, thus likely remaining VFR throughout the period.
Farther to the NW, convection will start to settle SE toward the
area with falling CIG and VIS eventually by late on Thursday.
.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periodic restrictions are expected through Saturday as low
pressure and subsequent upper troughing cross the area.