Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191845 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 245 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly south and west of Pittsburgh through Wednesday. Otherwise, the warm and humid pattern will continue into early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Precipitation associated with a frontal boundary and mid-level wave to our northwest continues to struggle as it bumps into high pressure over our region. Any eastward motion of the high continues to be blocked by Hurricane Jose in the Atlantic. Only some minor eastward progress of scattered showers and storms is anticipated through the rest of the afternoon/early evening as mid-level capping will hold on from Pittsburgh on eastward. Kept chance PoPs going to the west, with a bit more of a gradient than earlier. Little to no lightning observed thus far, but equilibrium levels of 30k feet suggest some is possible. This initial activity should mostly die off this evening with boundary layer stabilization. Overnight, the front continues to struggle to move southeast, while the mid-level shortwave and upper cold pool begin to slip to our southwest into the middle Ohio Valley. This may allow for a few isolated showers overnight in southeast Ohio/parts of northern West Virginia, where slight chance PoPs were placed. To the northeast, clouds may be thin enough to allow for patchy valley fog formation. Crossover temps not yet established, but think air temperatures will stay above these for the most part, ruling out more widespread issues. Above-normal temperatures were maintained overnight, a pattern which will continue through the balance of the forecast period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The upper wave continues its trek to our south on Wednesday, and with another modestly unstable afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will again be possible, mainly south of Pittsburgh. Warm mid levels should keep activity suppressed to the north. After the wave exits, ridging will become even more firmly entrenched over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes as a deep trough develops over the northwest U.S. This will lead to dry weather and further warming through Thursday. Highs in the mid 80s will become more common.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Little change in the large-scale circulation pattern is expected during the extended period, with the western trough/eastern ridge setup maintaining, if not strengthening, through early next week. As a result, a dry and quite warm forecast continues. With 850mb temps soaring to the 17-19C range, most locations outside of the ridges will soar well into the 80s. Cannot rule out eventually needing a 90 degree reading or two in the warmer locations. Continued to run with warmer temperatures than suggested by SuperBlend/MEX.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions with diurnal CU and increasing mid/high clouds are expected into the overnight hours as a weak upper trough approaches. Clouds should limit fog potential again tonight/Wed morning., but will go with some restrictions at AGC/FKL/DUJ where less cloud cover could allow for some fog development. .Outlook... Other than local morning fog, no widespread restrictions expected through Sun with building ridging. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.