Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241241 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 841 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...BUT SO WILL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DRAWS TO A CLOSE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH. THE INTENSIFYING WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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RECURRING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL THUS BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING ALONG A ZANESVILLE TO FRANKLIN LINE LATE ON MONDAY. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...NAM AND GFS DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH INITIALLY LIMITING EXPLOSIVE INSTABILITY. THAT SAME WARMTH WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL VIA WARM CLOUD PROCESSES...AND PRECIPITAL WATER VALUES WILL BE APPRECIABLY HIGHER UNDER THIS TRAIN SUPPORT PATTERN...BUT CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DEPENDANT AND SUSTAINED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ABSENT UNTIL A COLD FRONT SLIDES OUT OF THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH PRECURSOR RAINFALL AND TIMING OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALTER THAT DIAGNOSIS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE ON SCENARIO OF EASTERN CONUS RIDGE EROSION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE UPPER OHIO REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH THAT TIMING...BUT ELIMINATED FOR FRIDAY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING. A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ARE PROJECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND THE NORMALS FOR THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND INTO MONDAY. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE LIKELY TO SPAWN PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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