Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 242308 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 608 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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6PM UPDATE... REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY BEGINNING TO SHOW SPATIAL GROWTH IN RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROF APPROACHES TONIGHT. MIXED BAG OF REPORTS UPSTREAM WITH SOME DOMINANCE BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SHOWING EITHER FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING FOG...JUST OUTSIDE OF NW CWA PERIPHERY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME FAVORABILITY FOR THIS AS TOP OF THE MOISTURE COLUMN DRIES OUT NEAR -10C. HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 1AM. TAX PREVIOUS BELOW... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE. ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A LULL FROM SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK SYSTEM. HAVE DROPPED ALL SITES TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE IN THE FORECAST...EXPECT THAT SNOW BANDS OCCASIONALLY WILL DROP VISIBILITY INTO IFR RANGE AS WELL. COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041- 049-050. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>022-029. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002.
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