Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190515 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1215 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain and much warmer air will overspread the region today. Drier weather is expected tonight and through much of Wednesday, as is very warm temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Only minor changes to the overnight period. Have increased cloud cover and slowed the onset of PoPs by a couple of hours. Temperatures have been updated with a blend of hires guidance. Light rain will slowly overspread the region this morning as a warm front swings northward through the area. Better upper support from low-level convergence and right entrance region jet dynamics will reside across the northern counties today, and this portion of the CWA will be the focus of higher PoPs. The advancing warm sector will allow rain to taper off from south to north this afternoon, with chance PoPs remaining across the far north by evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The remainder of the forecast remains mostly dry along the western edge of a ridge centered around a 500mb high off the southeast U.S. coast. Have some minimal PoPs across the north from time to time as the boundary wavers, but most, if not all, of the area should get a period of dry weather tonight, through a portion of Wednesday. Another big story will be the warming temperatures, which will push much above normal values underneath the ridge. Values above 70 degrees are likely for many on Tuesday and for a large portion of the area on Wednesday as well.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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There are still some timing differences regarding the timing of the next cold front, but a passage in the late Wednesday/early Thursday period still is expected. This will bring the next chance of rain as well as cooler temperatures, but above-normal warmth will remain. The end of the forecast remains problematic, as several shortwaves may track across the area from Friday into the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions are forecast until well into the early morning hours. A warm front will spread showers south to north, dropping ceilings to low MVFR or IFR for a period this morning and into the early afternoon. Improvement to VFR is then expected through the remainder of the day, save for FKL/DUJ where low moisture looks to hold. Despite strong southerly flow, LLWS is expected through the entire forecast period. OUTLOOK... The risk for widespread restrictions returns late Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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