Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 302012 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 412 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will continue to produce bands of showers across the region into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Quick update at 4:15pm for timing and amount of precipitation with the band stretching from Cleveland to Pittsburgh and southeast towards Morgantown. Closed low will continue to spin across the lower Ohio Valley through the period with a slow wobble toward the north. This will keep bands of showers working north and west across the region, with more significant showers or isolated thunderstorms into this evening as a shortwave moves up the front of the upper level low. Drier air will wrap into the upper Ohio Valley Saturday, but still expect shower bands to redevelop especially north and west of Pittsburgh closer to colder air aloft. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Very slow movement to closed low as it shifts toward New England by Sunday night, followed by rising heights Monday as a ridge begins to build across the region. Scattered showers will remain across much of the region through Sunday, then mainly toward I-80 Monday as low exits. Temperatures will average above normal through the period, as overnight lows will be well above the seasonal average. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A ridge of high pressure will be over the region through Thursday with dry conditions and mild temperatures. A weak frontal boundary will approach Friday, and chance POPs were introduced. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A medium confidence forecast with the biggest question where/if stratus will develop during the predawn hours tonight. Showers will continue to stream from the south through the region with a jog toward the east around the upper level low pressure. With the showers, flight categories should stay at or above MVFR however can not rule out in a heavier shower that a brief drop to IFR vis happens. Several of the near term models indicate a batch of showers with embedded thunder moving through northern WV, western PA, and eastern OH tonight after 2z. Confidence at this juncture is not high enough for prevailing showers instead opted for VCSH across all terminals. Given the recent rainfall and build up of low level moisture almost all of the statistical guidance is taking airports to 600-800ft cigs after 7Z. Elected to roll with IFR cigs for most terminals save for the non favored climo ones of PIT and LBE. Increased drying of the atmosphere will allow clouds to break up Saturday morning, but given lower sun angle, burn off time is typically late morning /15-17Z/. Do not foresee nearly as much shower activity Saturday since we will reside underneath the dry slot. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Brief IFR/MVFR restrictions will linger into Monday when the upper level low finally departs. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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