Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 242127 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 427 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Periodic rain chances will continue through Sunday. Conditions should be dry for the beginning of the work week, with rain returning to the forecast by Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... After a brief lull in the rainfall is coming over most of the area as of 430 PM, however activity is already increasing over southwest Ohio. This is poised to allow rainfall to pick up again later this evening as a low pressure system over the midwest deepens and a stalled boundary just to our south lifts north over the forecast area as a warm front. Given the surge of PWATs above 1", a strengthening low-level jet, and deep warm cloud layer, rain production should be efficient. With an already saturated ground and streams/creeks already near bankful will need to monitor closely for localized flooding problems tonight. The areal flood watch remains in effect. There may even be a few rumbles of thunder overnight depending on the strength of elevated convection on the nose of the low level jet. Temperatures will vary little over the course of the day, but increase overnight behind the warm front. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure is in control for this time frame. This will welcome news of the area, which is much need of dry weather. If it does not rain until Thursday, it will be the longest run of dry weather since late January. We get an uptick in temperatures through the week. Behind the cold front, Monday will be coolest day with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Once the surface anticyclone slides off to our east, warm advection will again return as we make another run into the 60s across the lower elevations. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highlights: - Above normal temperatures continue - No big storms - Trend toward cooler weather next weekend The run of above normal temperatures persists with high pressure off the Carolina coast. H5 heights remain in the 560s and with H8 temps in the 4-6C range and a little sunshine max_T should be in the 50s. Wednesday will be the warmest day given the relatively lack of clouds. With a split flow aloft, low pressure ejecting from the southern stream moves northeast into the Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday. As the two branches phase, low pressure off the east coast develops while cooler air from Canada spills southward Friday night into Saturday. Boundary layer cools enough for potential snow to mix in Thursday night into Friday morning north of I-80. However this event will be dependent on what surface temperatures are. At this juncture, no accumulation is forecast given coolest readings will be in the mid and upper 30s. By Saturday at daybreak, the column continues to still cool so a rain / snow mix will increase in aerial coverage. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IFR/low MVFR ceilings will be the rule with scattered showers through the TAF period. Low level wind shear will become a more of a concern overnight as the low level jet strengthens. OUTLOOK... Restrictions are expected to continue into Sunday as a cold front passes. && .HYDROLOGY... The trend of lower total rainfall has resulted in a lowering of many forecast points with the latest forecast. This will keep all forecast points in the minor flood stage spectrum. Rainfall tonight will begin in eastern Ohio around 8-9pm and persist most of the night. PWATS peak out around 1.25" and a low level jet of 60 kts will allow good precipitation efficiency to lead to potential high water. Streams and creeks are running near bankful so amounts above 0.75" could lead to flooding and total amounts over an inch may close roads. With the recent wet spell, landslides continue to be a concern. The river flood warning remains in effect at Coshocton, however given the trend, elected to hold off on river flood warnings at all other locations. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MDZ001. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069. PA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>514. && $$

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