Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221240 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 840 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MID WEEK COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FOG LOOKS TO MIX OUT/BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT HOUR GIVEN THE TREND IN RECENT ASOS OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IT SEEMS TO ONLY REALLY RESIDE IN THE DEEPER/WIDER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL YIELD TO CLEAR SKIES FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS START TO FORM. WARM ADVECTION LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...POOR MIXING BELOW 850 MB SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RUN AWAY WARMING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING EVEN WITH THE WARM/HUMID/RATHER UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. EVEN WITH POOR MIXING...HIGHS SHOULD MAKE RUNS AT 90F IN MANY LOCATIONS SIMPLY DUE TO THE WARM START AND ABUNDANT JULY SUN. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE RIDGE WL WKN TNGT AHD OF AN ADVNG SHRTWV. THE SHRTWV AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL CROSS THE AREA WED BRINGING LIKELY POPS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. PROGGED INSTBY AND SHEAR DO NOT SPPRT AN ORGANIZED SVR WEA THREAT ATTM. AFT FROPA...SHWR CHCS WL LINGER INTO WED NGT AS A MID LVL TROF CROSSES. SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN THU AND FRI WITH COOLER THAN AVG TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG WITH ISOLATED IFR BURING OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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