Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 272218 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 618 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain is expected tonight and Tuesday with crossing low pressure. Dry weather is expected with mid week high pressure before low pressure returns rain to the forecast by late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Low pressure is progged to track from the MS Valley to the OH valley by Tuesday morning. Increasing moisture and shortwave support should result in showers increasing tonight and Tuesday. Maintained a slight chance of thunder generally S of I 70 where a brief period of limited instability is possible this evening, though meso analysis show some near term model progs are a little overdone with CAPE and showalter indicies. Showers should taper off from W-E Tuesday as the low tracks E and the axis of the supporting shortwave trough crosses. Lows are expected to be around 20 deg above average tonight, with highs Tue around 10 deg above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As high pressure moves over the Great Lakes, cooler and drier air will enter the region. Even this cooler air will still be slightly above normal. The high will be shunted to the east by Thursday afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west. Showers will become a threat by late Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure will bring rain into the region Thursday night, Friday, and Friday night before leaving just a slight chance of a shower by Saturday. High pressure settling back in should allow for dry conditions into Sunday. Have stuck close to SuperBlend forecast by Monday with diverging model solutions. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Intermittent high MVFR cloud coverage will continue before conditions deteriorate overnight into Tuesday as low pressure brings another period of rain to the region. Outlook... Restrictions are likely again by late week as another broad low affects the Upper Ohio Valley. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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