Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231716 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 116 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. A crossing cold front will return shower chances to the area tonight, especially north of Interstate 80, before mainly dry and cool weather returns for the first half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The stratocu should continue to decrease through the afternoon under ridging. Warm advection ahead of an approaching shortwave/cold front should drive temperatures back to near or a few degrees above seasonal levels. The cold front is progged for an overnight passage. The best moisture and upper support is progged north of I 80, where likely POPs were maintained, with lesser chances south. A crossing low level jet should also result in some gusty winds overnight in the ridges. Lows should stay above seasonal levels tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cool northwest flow will re-establish in the wake of the clipper and associated cold front. Can`t completely rule out lake-enhanced showers across the north Monday, as the cooler air moves over the relatively warm Lake Erie waters. Any lingering showers that do exist Monday afternoon should diminish quickly Monday night as drier air filters in with the surface high encroaching from the northwest. High pressure at the surface will then keep the forecast area dry through at least early Wednesday. Persistent northwest flow aloft will bring 850mb temperatures back below 0C through the short terms, which will aid in keeping surface temperatures below average through the middle of the week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A shortwave trough digging into the western Great Lakes will bring the next organized chance of precipitation back to the area by late Wednesday. Model guidance fairly consistent with this feature, so likely PoPs were maintained for Thursday. This late week system, along with another cold front Saturday will re- establish deep northwest flow, which will keep temperatures relegated to near or just below the seasonal averages through the period. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Patchy MVFR around KDUJ will depart early afternoon, otherwise general VFR through late evening. Southwest winds 10 to 15 KT and gusty this afternoon as pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold. A low level jet near 50 Kts will bring a period of LLWS to most ports before daybreak. With and just behind front around sunrise MVFR CIGs expected, with brief showers possible at northern ports. Improvement to VFR by midday Monday. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance for significant restrictions will be with low pressure approaching Thursday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.