-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
642 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE FOR THE ERLY MRNG UPDT.
PREVIOUS DISC...A SHRTWV WL CONT TO ADVANCE ACRS THE RGN THIS
MRNG...EXITING BY THIS AFTN. SFC PRES FALLS CONT TO INCR OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS THE INLAND SFC LOW WKNS AND COASTAL LOW
PRES DVLPS. THIS WL CONT THE DCRG TREND IN SNW COVG AND INTENSITY
ACRS THE RGN.

SNW TOTALS GENLY RANGED FM 2-3 INCHES THRU MOST OF THE ADVY
AND WRNG AREAS. WITH LTL ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS DECIDED TO JUST GO
WITH ADVYS AND DOWNGRADE ANY WRNGS THRU ERLY THIS MRNG ACRS THE
RIDGES E-SE OF PIT. MAINLY DRY WEA IS EXPD DURG THE AFTN. NR
SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW IS EXPD TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH
CHCS FOR SNW SHWRS. UPSLOPE SNWS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LYR AND LOW TEMP INVERSIONS.

THE MAIN FEATURE IS PROGGED FOR A SUN/MON PASSAGE AS A DEEPENING
SHRTWV TROF MOVES FM THE PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY RGN. MDLS HAVE
CONTD THEIR SWD TREND OF THE SFC AND MID LVL LOW TRACKS...AND
CONTINUED TO PREFER A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE VARIOUS
SPECIFICS. AS THE SHRTWV TRACKS INTO OH...THE MID LVL WAVE OPENS
AS A TRANSITION TO A DVLPG COASTAL LOW BEGINS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
DCRS THE SNWFALL INTENSITY AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH MOISTURE AND
OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNW FM SUN AFTN INTO MON
ESP FM PIT SWD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ADVY LVL SNW IS LIKELY...
THOUGH THIS WL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HIGHER AMTS.
WL CONT THE MENTION IN THE HWO AFT COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

AFT THE COASTAL LOW DVLPS BY MON...BROAD E COAST UPR TROFG IS EXPD
TO REMAIN ACRS THE RGN THRU TUE WITH OCNL SNW SHWR CHCS.

BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST USING THE LATEST SREF NMBRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON NEW
00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CIGS THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS WHILE WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME SUBSIDENCE ON BACK
SIDE OF LOW HAS ALLOWED A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR KHLG-KPIT BUT IFR
CIGS ACROSS OHIO WILL FILL BACK IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING. IFR WILL
REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED. BY AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE WILL RACE SOUTHEAST WITH MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS AND CONTINUED MAINLY IFR CIGS.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO BRING IFR TO PORTS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ023-041.

&&

$$