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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241637
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1237 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE AFTN UPDATE AS BLDG SFC HIGH
UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE REGION...AND
PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD.

TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN THE ONGOING
COLD...DRY ADVCTN. TWEAKS WERE COMPLETED USING NAM AND BIAS
CORRECTED GFS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES
DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP
LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD
TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT
RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT
CPL OF DAYS AS CURRENT MDLS SUGGEST MRNG PASSAGE OF THE NECESSARY
SHRTWV SPPRT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED
TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR
CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE
TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DVLPMNT THIS AFTN...VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNCE UNDR
BLDG HIGH PRES.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

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