Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 031216 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 816 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MORNING UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST NEAR MERCER AND GROVE CITY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A K INDEX IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND MU CAPES PUSHING OVER 1500J/KG. WITH LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN THE CURRENT REGIME...SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS THUS LEADING TO A SHORT LIFE SPAN. THE WEAK FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. PWATS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO A HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES ON FRIDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR FOG IS BECOMING MORE COMMON EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD AGAIN QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT AS STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK. ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND TIMING FAR FROM CERTAIN...SO INCLUSION IN THE CODED FORECASTS IS PRECLUDED. FRIES OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERI-DAWN FOG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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