Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290104 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 904 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL RETURN SHOWERS FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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LOW LVL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT...WITH THE 00Z PIT SOUNDING SHOWING THE MOISTURE BELOW A TEMP INVERSION. LOW PRESSURE ACRS SRN OH AND KY COULD ALSO RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OVERGNIGHT. THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE E AND DISSIPATE FRI AS AN UPR TROF CROSSES THE LWR GREAT LAKES RGN. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHCS THRU THE DAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/LIFT EXIT. HUNG ON TO AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH...AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE...AND FOR MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO START INCREASING AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING. THE FASTER TREND IN BRINGING BACK PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY CONTINUES AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY. CONTINUED THE POP INCREASE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND HAVE LIKELY VALUES CLOSE TO PITTSBURGH BY 00Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CWA BY SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK. HOWEVER...IN ANY CASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECENT MOISTURE FEED AND PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR LIFT...AND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL POPS. THERE COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE INFLUENCE...BUT TIMING THAT REMAINS TRICKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME SLOW WARMING INTO SUNDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY MONDAY AS H500 SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION. A DRY PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/DEPTH OF A DEVELOPING EASTERN TROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY ON...AS A DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE ELICITS A RESPONSE DOWNSTREAM. CHANCE POPS APPEAR WISE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY-DRIVEN SHOWERS INCREASES...AND TOUGH-TO-TIME WAVES DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. USED SUPERBLEND SUGGESTIONS AS A STARTING POINT AND TWEAKED FROM THERE. DID REDUCE SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN SOME CASES GIVEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH PATTERN. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR S OF PIT SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRI MRNG AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY CROSSES THE RGN...AND LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME MIXING BY AFTN SHOULD RETURN MOST PORTS TO MVFR CIGS...WITH A CROSSING UPR TROF SHOULD MAINTAINING THE CLOUD COVER. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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