Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 152207
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
507 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017
Dry weather and seasonal temperatures this evening before light
precipitation chances return with a Monday warm front. More
widespread rain is expected on Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Very minor changes to grids. Pushed off slight chance PoPs a bit
based on latest HRRR/RAP runs showing little chance of
precipitation before midnight, and may push off further with the
next update if the dry trend continues. The meager isentropic lift
on the 285K/290K surfaces does appear to hold off until after 12Z
for the most part, further supporting a drier forecast. This
would further reduce the already small chances of freezing rain.
Small tweaks to sky and T/Td curves otherwise, with stratus
lingering a little longer near the Mason-Dixon Line.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low precipitation chances will return overnight across southern
zones and spread north into and Monday but expect the majority of
the day to be dry. In general, precipitation still looks to be
primarily rain but there still is a chance some areas may see
freezing rain initially, especially in the higher terrain of WV
and MD. Low confidence in occurrence precludes an HWO mention at
There will be a much better chance of rain Monday night and
Tuesday with increasing shortwave support and the surface low
tracks northeast over the Great Lakes. Rain chances will continue
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough crosses the area.
Warm advection will result in temperatures climbing to average 10
to 20 degrees above seasonal levels.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Eastern CONUS ridging is progged to develop through the weekend as
a deep trough moves across the Plains and Midwest, resulting in
mainly dry and warm weather for the local area through the
period. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 degrees
above seasonal levels using tweaked Superblend guidance numbers.
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prevailing VFR is expected as high clouds begin to spread
northward in advance of a deepening low pressure over the central
Plains. Removed mention of vcsh on Monday, as latest model data
is showing a drier atmosphere, although do expect mvfr cigs to
develop at ZZV and MGW during the afternoon.
Wind will remain light with surface high shifting eastward.
Restrictions can be expected with a warm front late Monday and a Tue/Wed