Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260233 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1033 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and a periodic shower chance for the first half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The late eve update included some adjustments to POPs as a weak lead shortwave is spawning some showers in lee of Lake Erie. Slight/isolated numbers should suffice for areas north of I 80 overnight. Another, albeit deeper shortwave is projected across the Great Lakes this afternoon. Improved lapse rates and falling convective thresholds under cooling mid levels all support escalating precip probability with the surface reinforcing front, but with inhibitions by moisture paucity. No major changes were needed to the ongoing forecast of eventual scattered showers, a slight thunderstorm chance with more numerous convection over the I 80 corridor. Cold advection will hold temperatures about 10 degrees under the averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Mean troughing will remain across the area through the short term period. This combined with the passage of a more vigorous mid-level system will allow for rather unsettled conditions with scattered showers throughout the period. With reinforced cooling, temperatures will remain well below average.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The pattern rapidly evolves to favor flat ridging moving toward the Appalachians by the latter half of the work week. However, the lack of deepening of the system that shifts toward the upper Mississippi Valley combined with a fairly weak subtropical ridge off the southeastern U.S. coast will mean moisture advection should occur fairly readily over the flat ridge. As such, while a short period mid-week looks dry, humidity and thunderstorm chances should return with warmer air later in the week.
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&& .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Skies should be mostly clear overnight with light westerly winds. A cold front approaching the region on Monday should set off scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially north of Pittsburgh. Prevailing precipitation is expected at FKL/DUJ, but only had enough confidence to mention vicinity showers at BVI. At this time, not enough confidence in precipitation occurring at the rest of the terminals to mention in the TAFs. West winds should gust to around 20 kt during the afternoon hours. .OUTLOOK... Brief restrictions are possible with showers and scattered storms Tuesday with the passage of the upper trough axis. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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