Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 151427 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1027 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A crossing cold front is expected to bring showers and gusty wind this afternoon. After cool temperatures early in the week, high pressure should result in dry and gradually warming weather through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Only minor adjustments made at this hour as the forecast generally remains on track. Convective line well ahead of the front is still progged to approach early afternoon, so current PoP forecast remains valid. Previous...A trough advancing out of the Midwest is progged to drive a cold front across the region this afternoon. Followed close to a SREF and HRRR model blend to time categorical POPs with FROPA. Minimal instability is progged, though a few embedded thunderstorms are possible. Regardless, winds of 40-60kt from 5-10kft could mix down with any showers or storms along the front. Will maintain an HWO mention for this, and this also matches with SPC`s marginal severe weather risk. An increasing pressure gradient should also result in gusty winds outside of any precip as the front approaches and passes. Temperatures are expected to be around 15 degrees above seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cool NW flow and a crossing upper trough should maintain shower chances mainly N of PIT Monday. Patchy frost is possible Monday night under building high pressure, though the best chance is expected to be where the growing season has already ended, precluding a forecast mention at this time. The building high should then maintain dry weather and mainly clear skies through the rest of the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A large area of high pressure across much of the Ern CONUS should maintain dry weather and slowly warming temperatures through next weekend. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MVFR ceilings have developed in advance of the cold front that will cross the region this afternoon and evening, and this should affect most, if not all terminals during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Also cannot rule out low level wind shear through the morning hours due to a low level jet, although this should become less of a threat as wind gusts develop. MVFR will continue with the approach and passage of a cold front this afternoon and evening. Gusty SW winds are expected in advance of the front, with local gusts of 35 to 45 kt possible with showers and FROPA. A wind shift to the WNW and MVFR stratocu cigs are expected after FROPA through early Monday until a return to VFR by Monday afternoon. .Outlook... No widespread restrictions expected under high pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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