Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210517 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1217 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain returns today with the passage of a cold front. Periodic rain chances will continue through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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No changes to the overnight period. Cold front will cross most of the area this morning, clearing the southeastern ridge by late this afternoon. A large portion of the rain will fall right along or behind the surface boundary, in close proximity with the best large scale ascent and deep moisture. Upper level support with the boundary is not impressive and would expect the coverage and intensity of the rain to decrease today, as the boundary outruns the meager lift. Enough low-level cold air will move in behind the front that temperatures will begin to fall during the day. Even so, most places should have highs in the 60s, if not reaching 70 degrees, which could still allow for a record high or two to be broken.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The cold front will stall just to the south of the area tonight, allowing additional moisture to get pumped into the region in the southwest flow aloft. While temperatures will remain above normal, there could be some precipitation type issues north and west of Pittsburgh. Models are still showing some disagreement in the temperature structure, and have continued mention of snow and freezing rain, which is dependent on whether the low-level cold air manages to drive far enough to the south. This threat should be primarily late tonight and Thursday morning. The cold front will finally shift southward on Thursday, but the next front will begin to move in from the west Friday afternoon. This will bring more rain to the area. Temperatures will remain warm into Friday, with highs in the 50s and 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Several shortwaves will pass through the mean flow and could result in additional hydrologic concerns through the weekend. Model differences certainly do exist during this time, but rain chances were kept in the likely range for much of the weekend. A definitive cold front should finally move across the region Sunday, eventually yielding dry and cooler weather into the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected tonight under shortwave ridging. Deterioration to MVFR/patchy IFR is expected as a cold front crosses the area today. Showers are expected with the front, along with a gusty wind shift from SW to WNW. A low level jet ahead of the approaching front should also result in LLWS tonight until the jet weakens/exits Wed morning. OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are expected through Sunday with a series of crossing low pressure areas.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Record daily highs were achieved yesterday at all climate sites. Location Old Record New Record Pittsburgh 68 (1891) 78 Zanesville 71 (1939) 78 Morgantown 70 (1994) 78 DuBois 61 (2016) 72 Wheeling 68 (1930/2016) 78 New Philadelphia 69 (1994) 77 The records at Pittsburgh, Zanesville, and Wheeling also established new record high temperatures for the month of February, while a tie was achieved at New Philadelphia. For Wednesday, DuBois has the best chance of achieving a record high temperature for February 21 (60 set in 2016), while other sites are currently expected to come up short.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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