Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251043 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 643 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL INITIATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA ZONES AS RAPID UPDATE MODEL PROGS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH A VORT MAX PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL AS LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE VORT MAX OBSERVED VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THE FREQUENCY HAS TRENDED DOWN...BUT GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OVERNIGHT AND ADDITION OF SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ITS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PIT WHERE THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE...AND WHERE THE AXIS OF A LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE WAVE EXITS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH REGION WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG IT...IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HERE SHOWING PRECIPITATION BLOSSOMING AS IT DEVELOPS A SECONDARY BOUNDARY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION...AT LEAST NOT TO THE EXTENT THE NAM IS PRESENTING. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WARM ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX IN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO READINGS WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE REMOVED MVFR CIGS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS UPSTREAM AS MOST OBSERVATIONS WITH PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SHOW CIGS BETWEEN 4-6KFT. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR WILL BE LLWS THIS MORNING BEFORE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AS A 60KT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND ALSO THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR TERMINALS (ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ) THIS MORNING. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN 12Z TAFS...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS MORNING. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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