Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300449 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1249 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will bring rain to our region for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Quick update to make minor changes to PoPs and weather grids. Focus remains near and east of I-79. Precipitation rates have been reasonable for the most part but will need to monitor localized areas for potential minor issues. Previous discussion... Adjustments to the overnight forecast were made to shift main areas of precipitation to the southwest over southwestern PA and eastern OH counties as focus for further activity is expected to remain in the vicinity of the occlusion. This is supported by recent hi-res model output. Another 1-1.5 inches will be possible overnight over eastern Ohio/ southwest PA but rain rates are expected to be manageable and overall totals will remain below FFG values so no additional watches are planned at this time. The current FF watch will be maintained for the time being for Garrett, Preston, and Tucker counties given the observed 2-3 inches of rainfall over the past 24 hours and continued potential for higher rates as we head into the night. Will address this again later this evening as things evolve. Strong downslope winds will be possible along the western slopes of the ridges in the Morgantown-to-Latrobe vicinities with strong perpendicular component, ridgetop inversion, and negative wind shear meeting critical value thresholds. Latest model soundings and potential temperature / component-along wind cross sections support this idea as well. Wind orientation and degraded mixing still raises uncertainty but given the magnitude and projected height of the low level jet the wind advisory will remain in effect through mid Friday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and gusty wind will linger into Saturday as the nearly stationary mature low pressure system gradually fills. As the low dislodges and slowly creeps northward Saturday, rain will become increasingly scattered. No real changes were made for this forecast period other than to tweak POPs and temperature based on Superblend guidance. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Building high pressure is forecast to return drier and warmer weather as the week progresses. Superblend guidance, tweaked for POP continuity, was also used for this period. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Periodic restrictions will be ongoing overnight as bands of showers move over sites, with variable conditions in and out of the bands. In general deeper moisture in place at KDUJ where IFR should remain in place through much of the period. Elsewhere, expect flight categories to bounce mainly MVFR with occasional VFR as showers pass over. Conditions will improve to VFR on Friday as drier air is wrapped into and around the upper low. Strengthening pressure gradient will strengthen winds with gusts over 20kts most locations through the afternoon, and possible gust toward 30kts at KLBE in downslope.. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered restrictions can be expected into Monday as the upper level low lingers, then slowly lifts north of the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today FOR MDZ001. OH...None. PA...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today FOR PAZ073>076. WV...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today FOR WVZ510>514.
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