Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240134 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 934 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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H500 RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING DUE TO INFLUENCE OF WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. EXPECT THESE TO HOLD TOGETHER SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. HAVE BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA. STUBBORN LOWER CLOUDS IN SOUTHEASTERN CWA CORNER SHOULD ERODE LATER TONIGHT AS RIDGE APPROACHES. AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS PLUS 15-20 KNOTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST FOG. HAVE REMOVED IT FROM THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ONLY TWEAKED...WITH MANY READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S STILL EXPECTED. CL
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE. VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN ON SUN. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO. MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED... AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON WED. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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