Area Forecast Discussion
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080 FXUS61 KPBZ 180106 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 906 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain is likely with a cold front tonight into Friday. Temperatures will stay warm through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Cold frontal slowly dying convection has moved into the area and is currently traversing the panhandle of WV. It has already largely decreased in intensity rapidly over the past couple of hours with a lack of mid-level dry air and only modest instability being the likely culprits. No increase in intensity is forecast as the line of showers moves slowly through the area and gradually decelerates into the midnight hour. A secondary wave along the front to the SW just east of the juncture of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers will track northeastward overnight. This will work to slow the frontal progression and keep the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms over much of the area. This will allow for boundary layer saturation to start to occur, which should lower the clouds overnight and lead to patchy fog as well. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The bulk of the rainfall will have moved east by sunrise on Friday, although scattered showers could linger into Friday afternoon east of Pittsburgh. The chance for thunderstorms should also drop significantly by sunrise as well. Overnight lows shouldn`t drop much below 70, while temperatures will climb into the 80s once again on Friday. Cooler air will finally arrive Friday night with the frontal passage having not occurred until Friday afternoon. Between cooler air crossing Lake Erie and a surface boundary, scattered showers remain in the forecast on Saturday. Computer models are showing additional coverage in showers compared to model runs from yesterday. As high pressure moves over the area by Sunday, conditions will dry out. Temperatures will remain seasonable. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Broad high pressure will keep conditions dry Monday into Tuesday before another cold front brings a chance of rain back to the forecast for late Tuesday into Wednesday. Monday should have the warmest temperatures of the week, with temperatures dropping back towards normal by Thursday. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Weakening cold frontal convection is near KPIT as of 01z with an attendant cold front. As second area of low pressure along the front should allow it to buckle back northward over the next several hours, with showers redeveloping around KZZV and spreading NE from there. With ample rain continuing overnight, as well as an already damp boundary layer, stratus will become common overnight with nominal visibility restrictions. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible with another passing disturbance Saturday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.