Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 030730 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS SHUNTING MID AND UPR LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER HAS THUS BEEN ADJUSTED WITH MORNING TEMPS PROJECTED ALONG HIGH RES MODEL TRENDS. THE SLOW ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND MOISTURE DEEPENS. POPS WERE AGAIN RECONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE CONSISTENT GFS AND NAM DEPICTIONS...WITH LIKELY NUMBERS CONFINED COLLABORATIVELY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...ROUGHLY FOR THE PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN AND SURROUNDING AREAS WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE PROGGED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON ANY OF THE INCOMING MODELS...HENCE A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WAS INCLUDED ONLY FOR THE LIKELY POP AREAS AS MENTION ABOVE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS STILL FORECAST A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCATTERED/CHANCE POP NUMBERS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SATURDAY AS MODELS PERSIST IN LINGERING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...ALBEIT WITH DRY ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. DESPITE THE TROUGHING...MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THIS SCENARIO ARE WARM...HENCE THE LIMITED POPS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO INHIBITED INSTABILITY. BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE REFLECTION PROGNOSIS IS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTH THAT RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN OMITTED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WARMER TEMPS WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS AS HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH AVERAGE READINGS FOR SUNDAY...AND A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FOR MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEAONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NORTH OF I 70...THOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTRUE TO THE SOUTH COULD LEAD TO MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CONDITION DETERIORATION SOUTH OF I 80 TO AT LEAST MVFR SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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