Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290546 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 146 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. UPDATED TEMPS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A SHIELD OF CIRRUS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE DRY AN WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AN APCHG MD/UPR LVL TROF WL BRING CI TO AREA PORTS TNGT...WITH SCT SC/CU MON. VFR IS EXPD TO CONT...THOUGH SOME PTCHY MVFR/IFR FG IS EXPD ERLY MON MRNG N AND W OF PIT. FKL/DUJ LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHC AT LIFR AS THE SFC BCMS SATURATED DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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