Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271744 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 144 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRATUCUMULS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES OVER THE OHIO TURNPIKE AND I-80 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR SPREADS INTO THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE ENHANCES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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ZONAL FLOW...RISING HEIGHTS...AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...EXPECT TO EXPERIENCE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON FRIDAY. BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND GREATER INSTABILITY IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR...TO LOW END VFR STATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS CLOUD BASES RISE TRHROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR ANTICIPATED. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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