Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270030 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 730 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... SNW HAS ENDED AS THE COASTAL LOW PUSHES FURTHER NEWD. A FEW FLURRIES WL RMN PSBL THIS EVE AS THE DEEP MSTR EXITS. MSTR BCMS SHALLOW OVRNGT AND STAYS BLO THE SNW GROWTH RGN. WL MONITOR FOR ANY FZDZ DVLPMNT...BUT LLVL OMEGA DOESN/T APPEAR FAVORABLE ATTM...SO LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FCST. LOWS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVGS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...A MORE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SETUP...WITH LAKE ERIE SUPPORT. WITH THIS IN MIND...BROUGHT POP CHANCES UP THROUGH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESP N OF I 80 AND INTO THE RIDGES. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFTING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY OUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE TOO WILL END AS SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES ON FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40`S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSING WAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE DRY WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AREA WILL DRY OUT MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ALTHOUGH MOST SITES HAVE IFR CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z...DIFFICULTY WITH TONIGHTS FORECAST IS DETERMINING WHEN CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR. THINK THAT MANY SITES WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE OTHERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR UNTIL MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO PREVENT AIR FROM STAGNATING. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NON VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY IN -SHSN...LINGERING ACROSS NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH THE NEXT FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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