Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260031 AAB AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 831 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak disturbance may provide a few showers late tonight. A warm and increasingly humid air mass arrives for tomorrow and remains through the weekend, with rain chances each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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830pm update...No major changes from previous update. Just pushed back pops a little later into the night. Refreshed temperatures with the latest hires guidance. Previous discussion... A weak wave will slowly make its way across the area tonight and Thursday. Precipitation chances were kept low overnight, owing to an overall lack of moisture and lift. Dewpoints will be on the increase tomorrow afternoon, which combining with slightly cooler temperatures aloft, will create a more favorably unstable profile. Thus, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during this period. Temperatures above seasonal levels are expected for tonight and Thursday, with only minor changes to the previous forecast. CL
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Minor changes were made to the forecast as models are in agreement of the over all pattern. Moisture and instability is expected continue to increase in southwest flow through Saturday on the western periphery of an eastern CONUS ridge. With a lack of significant shortwave support, expect mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend will continue, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels expected using the latest model blend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ensemble models continue to indicate the east coast ridge persisting through the period. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited Superblend guidance for the long term period to account for uncertainty and to smooth out day to day operational model differences. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions overnight into thursday as only mid deck will be across the region. An isolated shower is possible overnight but not enough coverage to include in tafs. By mid afternoon thursday increasing low level moisture and a weak shortwave looks to bring isolated to scattered scattered thunderstorms. for now kept previous vcts at all ports. Winds will be light southwest through the period. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH monday/... Restriction chances in afternoon/evening scattered showers and possible thunderstorms will continue into the weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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