Area Forecast Discussion
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558 FXUS61 KPBZ 102350 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 650 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BITTER COLD TO START THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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UPDATE EARLY THIS EVENING TO BUMP DOWN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH WHERE LATEST PROGS SUGGEST LAKE ENHANCED BANDS PERSIST LONGEST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...OR CURRENT ADVISORIES. AS DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN THIS EVENING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DROP QUICKLY AND MAY BE ABLE TO PULL ADVISORIES SOUTH OF I80. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.. SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PA AS SHORTWAVE AND WIND SHIFT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. STILL EXPECT BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE THIS EVENING WITH BEST COLD ADVECTION...AND AS A LAKE ENHANCED BAND ATTEMPTS TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TOMORROW BUT WITH A WINDOW OF MEAN NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SOME LAKE BANDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LINE WITH NEWER MODELS...AND WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL FALL TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE BUT LITTLE CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS NUMBERS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL END SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH LATER FRIDAY AS ARCTIC VORTEX DROPS SOUTH. FRONT WILL CROSS REGION LATER FRIDAY WITH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BIGGER STORY WILL BE WIND CHILLS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 15 TO POSSIBLY 25 BELOW ZERO AS WINDS REMAIN UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS EARLY TO SORT OUT EFFECTS OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND JUST HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER WITH TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 0F. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BRINGING IN THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD AFFECT BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING BY WEDNESDAY. WHILE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE COLD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES AGAIN FOR THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WHILE MOST TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE FIRST SIX HOURS IS ON A HEAVIER SNOW BAND CURRENTLY ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED BY MODEL FORECASTS...AND THE TIMING IN THE TAFS STILL COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER CONSIDERING RECENT TRENDS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW...BUT POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT SPECIFIC MENTION IN 18Z TAFS. THE BAND MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH AS TO NOT IMPACT THE ZZV/MGW TERMINALS. AFTER THE BAND MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE MORE WEST-NORTHWEST...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AT FKL/DUJ...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...THINK THAT INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND CEILINGS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES INSTEAD OF IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT FKL/DUJ. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009- 015-074-076. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014- 016-020>023-073-075. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514. && $$

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