Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 222336 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 736 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A clear and cold night will be followed by sunshine and moderating temperatures Thursday. Rain chances return by the end of the week with a continued warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will settle southward toward the region this evening. Before it does so, soundings do favor a couple more weak gusts in the northerly flow before diurnal stabilization takes over. With a relaxation of the pressure gradient overnight, however, winds will diminish to near nil, setting the stage for nearly optimal radiational cooling conditions. That said, temperatures should go into free fall with lows areawide generally in the teens. As the surface high moves toward the Chesapeake Bay on Thursday, weak warm advection will start to take over. This will allow for temperatures to to their bounce upward. Even still, layer RH perspectives from the models favor a good deal of sunshine, particularly in the first half of the day with modest mid and high cloud increases during the afternoon. Fries && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Warm advection and increasing moisture will continue Thursday night in advance of a warm front. A north-to-south PoP gradient was maintained, with highest values in the likely category near and north of I-80. At this time, it still appears that most precipitation will be rain. A short period of freezing rain remains possible along the leading edge, mainly in the DuBois vicinity around midnight or so. This chance depends greatly on the amount of cooling that can occur beforehand, which is questionable given the increasing cloud cover. Still, some evaporative cooling is possible depending on temp/dewpoint spreads during the evening. Will continue with a low-confidence freezing rain mention and maintain the HWO mention as is. Shower coverage will slowly decrease on Friday as the warm sector becomes more firmly entrenched over the area. The continued strong warm advection allow temperatures to rise to 5 to 10 degrees above normal levels. A few showers may linger near/north of I-80 through Friday night, otherwise a mainly dry period is foreseen with quite mild overnight temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An active pattern is still forecast for the weekend into early next week. Saturday may feature a few showers as moisture in the warm sector continues to increase. An upper low ejecting from the Plains into the Great Lakes will push a front our way on Sunday with good rain chances. Depending on timing, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. The front may linger near the area on Monday with some showers, before another low threatens to bring higher rain chances once again Monday night or Tuesday. Dry weather and high pressure may then return by the middle of next week. Above normal temperatures are a strong possibility throughout. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions in clear skies will prevail tonight, with high cirrus spreading over the terminals through the day tomorrow. Wind gusts should diminish soon, if they haven`t already, with the surface ridge sliding overhead. TAFs are two lines for the primary reason of showing the wind shift from wnw to ese tomorrow. Wind should remain under 10kts tomorrow. Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions should come on Friday with a front tracking across the lower Great Lakes.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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