Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 012354
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
654 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016
A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds
and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
530 PM...updated to add sprinkles/flurries for areas south of I-80
through the night as minor returns remain on radar. Kept the
remainder of the forecast the same for now.
An upper low will remain the dominant feature during this portion
of the forecast. Although some flurries and sprinkles have been
around the region today, a shortwave tonight could spark some
measurable precipitation, generally north of Interstate 80. With
winds generally keeping a slight southerly component, Lake Erie
will provide little moisture for any snow showers. Winds will
shift closer to due westerly by Friday, bringing a slight increase
in chances for snow showers. With a solid overcast expected,
temperatures will remain slightly below normal.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As winds shift to the northwest Friday night, coverage of snow
showers will slightly increase, but any snow accumulations Friday
night into Saturday should remain minimal. As the low moves east
late Saturday, any precipitation should come to an end. Although
some partial clearing is expected Saturday night, clouds will
increase once again on Sunday as the next systems approach from
the west. Have slowed down the arrival of precipitation, which
should generally keep the area dry during the day. Temperatures
will remain a few degrees below normal.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Still a bit unsure about precipitation chances Sunday night into
Monday as long range models are showing that two system may
bracket the area to the north and south. Stuck with chance pops.
Models are in better consensus bringing precipitation in with low
pressure Monday night into Tuesday, and have gone with likely pops
during this time period. A bit of model uncertainty continues once
again for precipitation later in the week, with the GFS not
showing a potent low pressure system that the ECMWF has remained
consistent with for the last couple days on Thursday. Although
temperatures will be above normal Tuesday and Wednesday,
Thursday`s cold front will bring in the coldest air of the season
Thursday night into Friday.
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Cold advection will maintain ceilings at VFR / low MVFR levels
through the period. Some colder air aloft is expected to arrive
by Friday morning with a weak wave to help lower ceilings. With
low level flow shifting to W-NW on Friday, anticipate periodic
snow showers over the northern terminals.
Brief restrictions are possible in showers through the weekend
especially N of I 80 with broad upper troughing and cold W-NW
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