Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 012354 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 654 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 530 PM...updated to add sprinkles/flurries for areas south of I-80 through the night as minor returns remain on radar. Kept the remainder of the forecast the same for now. Previous discussion... An upper low will remain the dominant feature during this portion of the forecast. Although some flurries and sprinkles have been around the region today, a shortwave tonight could spark some measurable precipitation, generally north of Interstate 80. With winds generally keeping a slight southerly component, Lake Erie will provide little moisture for any snow showers. Winds will shift closer to due westerly by Friday, bringing a slight increase in chances for snow showers. With a solid overcast expected, temperatures will remain slightly below normal. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As winds shift to the northwest Friday night, coverage of snow showers will slightly increase, but any snow accumulations Friday night into Saturday should remain minimal. As the low moves east late Saturday, any precipitation should come to an end. Although some partial clearing is expected Saturday night, clouds will increase once again on Sunday as the next systems approach from the west. Have slowed down the arrival of precipitation, which should generally keep the area dry during the day. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Still a bit unsure about precipitation chances Sunday night into Monday as long range models are showing that two system may bracket the area to the north and south. Stuck with chance pops. Models are in better consensus bringing precipitation in with low pressure Monday night into Tuesday, and have gone with likely pops during this time period. A bit of model uncertainty continues once again for precipitation later in the week, with the GFS not showing a potent low pressure system that the ECMWF has remained consistent with for the last couple days on Thursday. Although temperatures will be above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, Thursday`s cold front will bring in the coldest air of the season Thursday night into Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Cold advection will maintain ceilings at VFR / low MVFR levels through the period. Some colder air aloft is expected to arrive by Friday morning with a weak wave to help lower ceilings. With low level flow shifting to W-NW on Friday, anticipate periodic snow showers over the northern terminals. .OUTLOOK... Brief restrictions are possible in showers through the weekend especially N of I 80 with broad upper troughing and cold W-NW flow.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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