Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161720 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1220 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will taper off today, as a cold front exits the region. Colder air will move in behind the exiting front which could allow for a brief period of snow showers before the precipitation ends. Next system arrives Saturday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Front will exit the far southern reaches of the area this morning. This will push the heavier rain south of the entire region by mid morning. Cold air advection, and a weak shortwave trough behind the surface boundary, will keep in the risk for showers into the afternoon. With the colder air diving southward today, precipitation may end as snow showers. The far southeastern portion of my region will continue to see the risk for precipitation into the evening hours. Temperatures will slowly fall throughout the day. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry weather will return tonight and Saturday morning as high pressure slides east across the region. Similar to last night, models continue to struggle with low pressure and a cold front moving up the coast Saturday afternoon and night. Seeing big difference between the operational models concerning the location of the inland surface low and the timing and strength of the trailing shortwave trough. Still high levels of uncertainty concerning the amount of qpf that will spread over the area and in turn the amount of snow. The overall trend has been further south with the surface low, which is allowing the colder air to remain, thus even precipitation type, rain or snow remains in question. For snow amounts, will lean heavily toward ensemble forecasts with such big differences in the operational models. Coastal low will rapidly takes over Saturday night which will bring a quick end to the snow. Most locations will see the snow end before midnight, with the possible exception of my eastern edge of counties, which could see the snow continue into early Sunday morning. High pressure will return dry weather on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to a few degrees above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Southwest flow between a Wrn CONUS trough, and a SE CONUS high should result in warm weather through the period. Shortwaves embedded in the flow, and proximity to a slow moving frontal boundary, should keep periodic rain chances through mid to late week. The warmest day of the week looks to be Tuesday, before the front arrives. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Rain is slowly shifting sewd as a cold front advances. As the low- level lapse rate steepens amid cold air advection, the widespread clouds will give way to broken stratocu before subsidence helps erode all low clouds this evening. Ongoing restrictions will ease by early evening, with light wind and scattered cirrus expected overnight amid building high pressure. Clouds will increase late Saturday afternoon as moisture surges nwd ahead of an approaching disturbance. Rain/snow may impact srn terminals late in the current/next TAF period with flight restrictions expected. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions will continue Saturday night and again Monday into Tuesday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Although heavy rain is winding down, runoff will lead to continued river flooding beyond the period of rain. River Flood Warnings have been issued along much of the Monongahela and Ohio Rivers.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ001. OH...Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069. PA...Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for PAZ013-014-020>023- 029-031-073>076. WV...Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>514.
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&& $$ Update...Kramar

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