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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180106
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
906 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain is likely with a cold front tonight into Friday.
Temperatures will stay warm through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Cold frontal slowly dying convection has moved into the area
and is currently traversing the panhandle of WV. It has already
largely decreased in intensity rapidly over the past couple of
hours with a lack of mid-level dry air and only modest
instability being the likely culprits. No increase in intensity
is forecast as the line of showers moves slowly through the area
and gradually decelerates into the midnight hour.

A secondary wave along the front to the SW just east of the
juncture of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers will track
northeastward overnight. This will work to slow the frontal
progression and keep the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms
over much of the area. This will allow for boundary layer
saturation to start to occur, which should lower the clouds
overnight and lead to patchy fog as well. Fries
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The bulk of the rainfall will have moved east by sunrise on
Friday, although scattered showers could linger into Friday
afternoon east of Pittsburgh. The chance for thunderstorms
should also drop significantly by sunrise as well. Overnight
lows shouldn`t drop much below 70, while temperatures will climb
into the 80s once again on Friday.

Cooler air will finally arrive Friday night with the frontal
passage having not occurred until Friday afternoon. Between
cooler air crossing Lake Erie and a surface boundary, scattered
showers remain in the forecast on Saturday. Computer models are
showing additional coverage in showers compared to model runs
from yesterday. As high pressure moves over the area by Sunday,
conditions will dry out. Temperatures will remain seasonable.

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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad high pressure will keep conditions dry Monday into Tuesday
before another cold front brings a chance of rain back to the
forecast for late Tuesday into Wednesday. Monday should have the
warmest temperatures of the week, with temperatures dropping
back towards normal by Thursday.

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.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Weakening cold frontal convection is near KPIT as of 01z with an
attendant cold front. As second area of low pressure along the
front should allow it to buckle back northward over the next
several hours, with showers redeveloping around KZZV and
spreading NE from there. With ample rain continuing overnight,
as well as an already damp boundary layer, stratus will become
common overnight with nominal visibility restrictions.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are possible with another passing disturbance
Saturday.
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&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$