Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251745 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1245 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL LOW CENTER JUST OVER NE MISSOURI WITH A JET MAX NEARING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE...SO ANTICIPATE THE LOW CENTER TO CONTINUE SOUTH JUST A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. THIS GOES ALONG WELL WITH RECENT MODEL PROGS AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO TWEAK HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER REFLECT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND ADD MENTION OF MODERATE SNOW THIS EVENING FOR AREAS UNDER BEST FORCING. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW.. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A DEEPENING SHRTWV MOVG OUT OF THE MID WEST AND WRN GT LKS RGN. THIS SHRTWV WL ADVANCE ACRS OUR RGN LTR TDAY SPREADING SNW ACRS THE RGN. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND MDL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THE PCPN MAY MIX WITH OR CHG TO RAIN NR AND S OF THE SRN PA BORDER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE..CUTTING DOWN ON SNW TOTALS. MDLS CONT TO OPEN THE MID LVL WAVE AS IT ADVNS ACRS ERN OH INTO PA AS THE TRANSITION TO A COASTAL LOW TAKES PLACE. MSTR AND OMEGA FIELDS STILL INDICATE A BAND OF MODERATE SNW WL LIKELY DVLP ACRS AREAS FM ZZV TO PIT TO LBE THIS EVE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS BEFORE THE MID LVL WAVE OPENS LT TNGT. WITH MDL TRENDS SHOWING A SLGT NWD PUSH TO THE PCPN...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEA ADVY FURTHER NWD INTO NW PA. FCST WAS BASED ON A SREF/MDL BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES... COMBINED WITH SURROUNDING WFO AND WPC COORDINATION. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SNW IS EXPD TO CONT THRU MON AND MON EVE AS THE SHRTWV CONTS ITS TRACK ACRS THE AREA. ADVY LVL SNW TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES ARE EXPD FM NR ZZV TO PIT TO LBE...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER AMTS N OF I 80 AND AREAS WELL S OF PIT. BROAD UPR TROFG IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF THE RGN TUE WITH DCRG SNW SHWR CHCS. BLDG HIGH PRES WED SHOULD BRING DRY WEA. BELOW SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WERE FCST BASED ON THE LATEST SREF NMBRS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME IMPORTANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT CLIPPER AND DELIVERY OF EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UPPER OHO VALLEY. WPC PROGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THERE ARE A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WIDESPREAD SNOW ARRIVES...ALL SITES WILL BECOME IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR. FKL/DUJ ARE THE ONLY SITES THAT MAY NOT DROP TO LIFR IF HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. ALSO EXPECT ZZV/MGW TO HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. INTERMITTENT VLIFR IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING/LOCATION TO INCLUDE IN 18Z TAFS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO EASE UP IN INTENSITY...BY MONDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. NEXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004- 012-021>023-041. && $$

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