-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 091658
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY SPAWN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL A POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
WARM ADVECTION WILL RESUME LATE TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND TO CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES COULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM DROPPING TOO
MUCH DESPITE SURFACE HIGH. FOR NOW MAINTAINED LOW TEMPS IN THE
30`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING...BUT WEAK SHRTWV COULD BRING SOME SHWR CHCS FOR THE
NRN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA ON MONDAY...HENCE SLGT...TO MINIMAL
CHC POPS WERE CONTD. GENL WARM ADVCTN WL FUEL A TEMP RECOVERY TO
NR...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE NXT CPL OF DAYS WL BE THE ADVN OF LOW PRES
ALNG SWD SAGGING FRONTAL BNDRY...TIMED FOR A WEDNESDAY PASSAGE
ACRS THE REGION. MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK...BUT DIFFER
SLGTLY ON TIMING. CONFIDENCE IS THUS IMPROVING ON THAT LOW
SPREADING RAIN...AND SOME SNOW OVR THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NGT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE BTR CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO
BE WITH THE INITIAL WARM SURGE ON THE ADVN FLANK...AND IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONES ON THE REVERSE FLANK OF THE EXITING SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AFTN. GIVEN THE CURRENT WIND FIELD STRUCTURE AND LOW
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS PROGGED BY GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM...PRIMARY
AND SUSTAINED MID LVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ZONE WL BE NORTH OF
THE REGION...HENCE INTIAL ACCUMULATION FORECAST WL BE IN THE
ADVISORY OR LESS CATEGORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATER THAT NIGHT. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH ACROSS CANADA ON FRIDAY.
WHILE PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY WITH THE LOW SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH FOR THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TAKE QUITE A TUMBLE BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY STORM...WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE HIGH TEENS TO THE LOW 30S ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR CU/STRATOCU CIGS MAINLY FM PIT NWD ARE EXPD TO CLEAR
UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES THRU THE AFTN. A WK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHWR ERLY MON THOUGH VFR CONDS ARE EXPD TO CONT THRU THE
DAY...WITH GUSTY SW WNDS DVLPG.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WDSPRD RSTRNS ARE EXPD TUE NGT INTO WED EVE AS LOW PRES TRACKS
ACRS THE UPR OH VLY RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07