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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250324
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1124 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and periodic
shower chances for the first half of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The midnight update featured adjustments to hourly trends of POPs
and Sky cover based on the latest radar and satellite data as
showers with a reinforcing cold front continue over the I 80
corridor. These will fade as the night and front progress.

Another, albeit deeper shortwave is projected across the Great
Lakes Sunday afternoon. Improved lapse rates and falling
convective thresholds under cooling mid levels may be sufficient
to support some isolated showers, but the probability will be
inhibited by limited moisture. A precip mention was thus confined
to the I 80 corridor where proximity to the mid level
disturbance/cold pool will have greater affect.

Cold advection should keep highs 5 to 10 degrees under the
averages.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The next in series of shortwaves is projected for a Monday
approach and Monday night passage. That disturbance is currently
projected to have a slightly southward track and an improved,
but still limited moisture tap; hence, precip probability for
some showers, and possible thunderstorms will be enhanced until
passage of the mid level reflection on Monday night.

A weaker system in more amplified flow is forecast for a Tuesday
crossing. Lack of dynamics should limit that precip chance for
the Upper Ohio Region. Short term temperatures under the
persistent troughing remain progged about 10 degrees under the
averages.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The long term period will feature moderating temperature as flow
aloft flatten/ridges in response to a trough digging out of
Western Canada. Humidity and warmth will enhance with the progress
of that trough over the Plains/Midwest, and precip chances
escalate as the system erodes the Eastern ridge by the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence forecast. VFR conditions will continue through
the period. Diurnal cumulus will return on Sunday with
occasional wind gusts yet again.

.OUTLOOK...
Chance for restrictions will come with afternoon convection on
Sunday and Monday as an upper trough settles over the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$