Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 192356 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 756 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Advancing low pressure will spread more widespread rain over the Upper Ohio Valley Region tonight and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some adjustments made to sky/PoP fields tonight through early Thursday, primarily slowing the leading edge of the precipitation down. Isolated thunder has been included for a few hours this evening in far western zones to account for upstream convection moving in. Additionally, most guidance including latest hi-res models carve out the warm sector through West Virginia late tonight into Thursday. Adjustments were made to tighten the gradient of PoPs from northwest to southeast. Previous Discussion Below... Low pressure will develop along the front stretched over the Ohio Valley and dig northeastward as mid level troughing amplifies over the Plains. The advance of that system will push the frontal boundary northward and increase precip probability over the Upper Ohio tonight, and cumulate in categorical numbers for Thursday and Thursday night as the exiting system pulls the frontal boundary eastward again as a cold front. Precip probability and QPF has been constructed for this scenario with initial focus across western and northern zones due to boundary positioning, followed by subsequent cold front precip. Have used OHRFC guidance for the QPF of this system which projects a general one to just-over-two inches over the next 48 hours. The Storm Prediction Center has included the immediate area in a "marginal/5 % severe risk on Thursday due to the shear levels on the flank of the negatively tilting upper trough. Limitations will be imposed by instability levels, which do not look healthy for the situation depending on model; hence, no hazardous mention will be included for now. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Precip is expected to fade eastward through Friday with progress of the front and supporting mid level trough/wind field. Much cooler weather will follow for the weekend as the upper trough develops over the Eastern CONUS. Scattered showers will remain in the forecast through Sunday, mainly for northern and ridge zones, as cold advection continues and shortwaves in northwest flow traverse the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry, but seasonably cool conditions are anticipated as high pressure builds for the start of the new work week. Slightly modified Superblend guidance was used for the extended period. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions will continue at all sites for the next few hours. After that time, upstream convection may clip the NW portions of the area as it rides NEward toward Lake Erie as a warm front rides northward. Much of the SE portion of the area enters the warm sector, thus likely remaining VFR throughout the period. Farther to the NW, convection will start to settle SE toward the area with falling CIG and VIS eventually by late on Thursday. Fries .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Periodic restrictions are expected through Saturday as low pressure and subsequent upper troughing cross the area.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.