Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011655 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1255 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AND STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DETERIORATION OF MORNING STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES HELD IN CHECK TO THIS POINT. FURTHER MIXING OF DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CLOUD DECK AND BY EARLY EVENING SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A PLEASANT EVENING ON TAP. THINK THAT THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WITH MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS THAT COULD DISRUPT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT...TRAJECTORY AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT. TAX && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW STRATUS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY...BUT TRANSITION FROM IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO MVFR/VFR STRATOCU WILL BE GRADUAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS IMPROVING QUIKER THAN OTHERS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH IN FKL/DUJ TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO FKL/DUJ IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. TAX .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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