Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281723 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 123 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A series of crossing disturbances will keep showers in the forecast through the weekend with humid conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Shortwave producing showers and embedded thunderstorms moving northeast across region with bulk of rain now moving into and across the ridges. Second shortwave now moving into West Virginia with models differing on how far north and west thunderstorms will be able to fire this evening. Based on current placement of storms on radar and lack of low level instability due to morning rains, have adjusted highest POPs and QPF farther south and east. This still puts southeast ridges and portion of northern West Virginia in line for possible heavier rainfall in thunderstorms, but it appears bulk of stronger re-development may be east of the ridges late afternoon and evening. Will continue to monitor. Only a slight chance for showers along and north of I-80, with remainder of region seeing a slow decrease in showers through the night. No real change in airmass with humid conditions keeping overnight lows elevated. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models continue to struggle with the placement and amount of the heaviest rainfall tonight. Some of the ops models appear to have convective feedback problems this evening and overnight as the surface low moves to the east and the trailing upper level trough swings through. It still looks that the best chance for heavier rainfall will be confined to the locations near the Mason- Dixon line this evening and possibly into early Friday morning. Additionally, convection coverage and strength remains in question due to all the cloud cover and rain prior to the passage of the low and aforementioned trough. The upper level system will exit the forecasting area Friday morning, decreasing POPs northwest to southeast across the region. Multiple shortwaves will cross the region Friday night and Saturday, keeping in shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A series of shortwaves moving through the weak trough over the eastern CONUS will support periodic rain chances and seasonal temperatures into Monday. A weak bubble of surface high pressure looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A modified Superblend was used for much of the extended period. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A medium confidence forecast with cigs and vis timing generally following consensus short range model. Another slug of rain will move through during the afternoon hours affecting all terminals save for FKL and DUJ where they will reside far enough north and miss out on MVFR/IFR weather. Prevailing showers were ended west /21z/ to e /03z/ before IFR stratus and fog develops late evening. It is still a tough call on how low vis and cigs drop overnight. For now rolled with IFR at most airports save for DUJ. Lowest confidence of occurrence is at FKL since they won`t receive measurable rainfall during the day light hours. Morning fog and stratus will erode around 14z owing to VFR weather. Any diurnal showers should pop up after 18z...so the last six hours of the forecast was kept dry. The only time window for thunder appears to be in the 21-01z window as a short wave trough rides northeast along the Ohio river. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Brief sub VFR restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms through Monday, however given duration and coverage nothing more than a CB or VCTS/ VCSH expected at this time. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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