Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161539 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1139 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL READINGS ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VISIBLE IMAGERY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS REVEALED AMPLE SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES FROM THE SNOW THAT OCCURRED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THIS COMBINED WITH INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND VERY POOR MIXING EVERYWHERE HAS MANAGED TO COMBINE TO PUT A VERTIABLE LID ON TEMPERATURE RISES THIS MORNING. IN FACT...AS OF 11 AM...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS IS REMARKABLE FOR MID-APRIL WITH THE SUN OUT APPROACHING THE NOON HOUR. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON WERE PROBABLY TOO OPTIMISTIC...SO THEY WERE PEELED BACK AROUND A HALF DOZEN DEGREES ALMOST EVERYWHERE...LARGELY IN LINE WITH THE NAM 2 METER AND ECMWF SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THE BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...FEEL SCH POPS ARE APPROPRIATE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... EARLY WEEK RAIN CHCS WL ACCOMPANY A CROSSING SHORTWV. GIVEN THE OPEN NATURE OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING TIMING AND MSTR SUPPLY ISSUES...CHC POPS WL SUFFICE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS NR...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS ARE PROJECTED GIVEN THE ZONAL...BUT UNDULATORY FLOW PROJECTION. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RSTRNS ARE PSBL WITH THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF FRIDAY NIGHT LOW PRES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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