Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 312353 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 753 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE EARLY THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE I 80 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST...ALBEIT WEAK...SHEAR EXISTS. THIS LACK OF SHEAR HAS ALLOWED FOR DISORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORM NEAR I 80. EVEN THIS THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING. STRATUS/STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/SURFACE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. LOWS NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL JUST EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS CHANCES IN THE AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS...WHICH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES ESPECIALLY FROM PIT SOUTH INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE USING THE LATEST SREF AND GRIDDED MOS NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NEARLY COMPLETED THEIR PASSAGE ACROSS LOCAL TERMINALS...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO CLEAR DUJ BY 02Z. BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ALSO SUPPORT LIFR CEILINGS MOVING INTO FKL AND DUJ...BUT AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT LIFR CIGS TO AFFECT ANY OTHER TERMINALS. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL COULD RETURN BY MID WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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