Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220746 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 346 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WEAK WIND SHIFT WITH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS OHIO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS TO START MOSTLY VIRGA UNTIL TOWARD DAYBREAK. MAIN FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS REGION. LIKELY POPS AS SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST. KEPT A CHC FOR THUNDER EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. MILD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP OFF BEHIND FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WELL INTO THE 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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CONTINUED CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS I-80 AND THE RIDGES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. AS SURFACE HIGH EXITS THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. LIKELY POPS FRIDAY WITH FRONT AND CHANCE POPS SATURDAY IN UNSTABLE COLD ADVECTION AS A REINFORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND COOL. LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES. FOR NOW WENT WITH A DRY DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATE...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS DAWN APPROACHES. MVFR CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS. SHOWERS CLEAR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT FKL AND DUJ...WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO HOLD ON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. .OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH THE CAA TONIGHT HOLDING THROUGH DAWN WED. VFR WL QUICKLY RTN WITH HIGH PRES...BUT SHWRS AN RESTRICTION POTENTIAL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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