Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290010 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 810 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLICING THROUGH EASTERN OHIO...HAVING PASSED ZANESVILLE WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. A FAIRLY COHERENT LINE OF SHOWERS IS EVIDENT ALONG IT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS FAIRLY FOCUSED RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF...HOWEVER STRONG INSTABILITY IS LACKING. AS SUCH...MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SUGGEST AROUND 100 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG THE FRONT AT THE MOMENT...WHICH REALLY SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE FADED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...BUT SLIGHT CHANCES WERE LEFT ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF FOR JUST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS TO ALLOW FOR THE EVER- SHRINKING CHANCE OF A ONE-STRIKE-WONDER. THAT SAID...STRONG LAPSE RATES BELOW 5 KFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE DRY SLOT LOOKS SET TO MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT CLEARING OVER MANY AREAS AS POST-FRONTAL FLOW NEVER TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES REMAIN STRONG WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC RIDGING IS EXPD TO BLD IN WED AND THU UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG ACRS THE ERN CONUS. A WK SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE UPR TROF WL CROSS THE GT LKS RGN WED NGT. INCLUDED A BRIEF LOW CHC FOR SHWRS N OF I 80 AS WNW FLOW OVR LK ERI COULD PROVIDE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT FOR PCPN. BY FRI THE SFC RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS. ANOTHER...STRONGER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD FOR A LT FRI PASSAGE WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS THRU THE DAY. NR SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WED SHOULD DCRS TO 5-10 DEG BLO AVG BY LT WK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LT FRI SHRTWV. THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR WILL CROSS THE AREA. COLD DAY SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING 1-2 HOURS OF RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. ANY MVFR OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND WIND GUSTS DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS REMAINING. DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ADDITION TO WIND GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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