Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181942 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 242 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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LLVL MSTR BLO A TEMP INVERSION WL CONT TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES INTO THE EVE. A WK SHRTWV ADVNG ACRS THE MIDWEST WL CROSS THE RGN THIS EVE AS WELL. AS MSTR INCRS WITH THE WAVE EXP A PD OF LGT SNW OR FLURRIES ACRS MUCH OF THE RGN...THOUGH LTL IF ANY ACCUMS ARE EXPD. SOME LK AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME SML ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH MSTR DEPTH AND THE CAPPING TEMP INVERSION LMTG THE SNW POTENTIAL. LOW TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL ABV SEASONAL LVLS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SFC HIGH PRES IS PROGGED TO BLD IN UNDER UPR TROFG OVR THE GT LKS FRI...ENDING ANY LINGERING MRNG SNW SHWRS. THE SFC HIGH IS EXPD TO BRING DRY WEA THRU THE WKEND...THOUGH PERSISTENT MSTR BLO AN INVERSION MAY KEEP SKIES MCLDY. A SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE SERN CONUS LT SAT/SAT NGT IS NOW PROGGED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH S TO REMOVE ALL PCPN FM THE FCST FOR AREAS S OF PIT. A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR ERLY SUN ACRS THE GT LKS...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEEP MSTR AND THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD KEPT THE FCST DRY. SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO NR SEASONAL LVLS BY SUN.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC EXTENDED PROGS. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY EVENING WITH AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT LOOKS TO BE BORDERLINE. LIGHT SNOW ENDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH CONTINUED MVFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 07/10

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