Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011831 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 231 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURNING UNTIL A MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SCATTERING OUT OF CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AS A SOUPY BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AN INTERMEDIATE 18Z KILN SOUNDING REVEALED VIRTUALLY NO CAP IN THE SCATTERED OUT ENVIRONMENT. SHOWERS HAVE POPPED QUITE QUICKLY POST-SCATTER OUT WITH THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LIKELY NOT FAR BEHIND. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALL FORMING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SPLAYED OUT ACROSS OUR REGION. MODEL CAPES SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING WITH MODEST SHEAR. SPC HAS CONTINUED THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS A RESULT. INSTABILITY DOES WANE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER YET ANOTHER WAVE IS SET TO TRACK DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALLOWING IT TO SURGE A BIT NORTHWARD. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA ALONG WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DIVERGENCE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...MEANING A GOOD SWATH OF SHOWERS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA. POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD AND SLOWED A BIT PER THE CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE. DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY WARM FOR EARLY MAY. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AROUND SUNRISE...AND SHOULD RACE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING. WHILE RAIN WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW...A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT GAP IN RAIN WILL BE SHORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DROP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER TO THE WEST...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THIS WILL YIELD INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD. WEATHER WILL REMAIN COOL...CLOUDY...AND WET WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE LOW DRIFTS EAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY BREAKING UP AS DIURNAL MIXING INCREASES. WITH A VERY WEAK CAP HOLDING BACK INSTABILITY...INSOLATION WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE SOUPY AIR MASS...THESE WILL POP VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL ENCROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A FINAL WAVE MOVES DOWN THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AT MOST SITES INTO MONDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS IS LIKELY WITH A WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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