Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 162149 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 549 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain is likely with a cold front Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will stay warm through the seven day forecast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A quasi-stationary boundary continues to linger near the I-70 corridor in Ohio and slinks southward toward the I-68 corridor east of Morgantown. Weak low-level convergence along this boundary along with some instability and higher dewpoints to its south has managed to muster a few showers along it. Given we are now past our diurnal heating maximum, and there has been no thunder to this point, it would seem thunder development is unlikely at this point. Isolated showers were just kept in the forecast for a few hours along the boundary per hi-res guidance with generally clear skies thereafter for the remainder of the evening. High clouds look to increase toward morning ahead of the next system to affect the area. This should keep fog coverage down a bit, however the return of southerly flow by morning should start an increase in dewpoints, as well. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As the warm front moves north across the forecast area Thursday, it will touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms. More widespread rain will arrive by late afternoon into the evening hours. Our Ohio counties are in a marginal risk for severe weather, with there still being some uncertainty as to the particular timing of the storms and how that might contribute to instability. Considering high resolution model depictions of the line are still showing broken coverage of thunderstorms, did not have enough confidence to bump up pops to categorical. Scattered showers will continue on Friday in advance of the cold front itself moving through the region. Weather will dry out Friday night, but another wave could possibly set off some isolated showers on Saturday with colder air working its way across Lake Erie. Magnitude of cold air at 850mb might not be enough to produce actual lake effect showers, but should at least provide partly to mostly cloudy skies. The frontal passage should bring temperatures back towards normal values.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad high pressure will build across the region for the end of the weekend into the beginning of the work week. A cold front should then bring a chance of rain back to the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near average, building into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A few isolated showers and storms are possible this afternoon and evening south of PIT, but coverage is such that even VCSH or VCTS are not needed. Otherwise, VFR with scattered CU and light winds is expected. Clouds should begin to increase tonight as a warm front lifts north. This will help to keep fog a bit more limited during the late night/early morning, but still have possible IFR visibility at FKL and DUJ. Any fog will lift by 14Z, with ceilings remaining VFR. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should become more prevalent by the end of the TAF period with daytime heating, and have included VCTS by 16Z at most sites. .Outlook... Widespread restriction potential returns with a Thursday/Friday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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