Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301416 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1016 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary may generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms over areas east of Interstate 79 this afternoon. Otherwise dry and seasonably warm weather can be expected into mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Changes for the late morning update included adjustments to hourly trends of temperature and cloud cover. A weak frontal boundary will slide across the Upper Ohio Region today and slight to chance precipitation probabilities were maintained for that passage. Although the front will usher in slightly lower dew points, the change in airmass is not decisive and term temperatures are projected about 5 to 10 degrees above the averages using consensus/short guidance. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Subsidence with that high is expected to maintain dry weather into Wednesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s again. Thereafter, general model agreement is of a mid level trough and associated cold front approaching late Wednesday night and crossing the region Thursday. Precipitation probabilities were gradually escalated for that occurrence and accompanied by an above average temperature forecast given the warm, moist advection in advance of that feature. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Model guidance suggests that the front will lag in complete passage through Friday; thus, chance pops were maintained. Despite some upper level pattern differences by Saturday, model consensus suggests a deepening trough over the eastern-CONUS/Great Lakes as a ridge builds in the west. A series of shortwaves within flow are progged to maintain shower chances through this period. Given the uncertainty in timing of those disturbances, will keep pops and temperatures at or below superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Building high pressure will ensure general vfr with exceptions for peri-dawn fog, and some scattered showers and storms in vicinity of LBE and MGW as a weak front completes passage this afternoon. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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