Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 190858
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
358 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
Dry conditions are largely expected until the next frontal
system crosses the region Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday
morning. Well above normal temperatures are expected through
the end of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Expect some morning clouds, mainly over the southern half of
the area, as a period of weak cold air advection swings through
behind the exiting shortwave trough. Most of the clouds will
decay by the afternoon. With the cloud cover and weak cold air
advection, temperatures will not be as warm as Saturday but will
still be well above normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong ridging builds in the wake of the departing low through
this period, with 500mb heights approaching 576dam by Tuesday
morning. With nearly clear skies and warm advection, expect the
continuation of very warm temperatures through Tuesday, before
a cold front approaches Tuesday afternoon/night.
With such a strong ridge in place over the east, have slowed the
onset of showers from previous forecast.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long term continues to highlight an above-average temperature
trend, as has been suggested by long-range guidance. Despite
the passage of the front Tuesday night, mid-level ridging will
quickly build back over the eastern CONUS as the trough
amplifies over the southwestern US and then ejects into the
central Plains by the end of period.
Looks like a return to more normal temperatures by the weekend.
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak system will continue to shear off to the east generally
to the south of the region overnight tonight. Guidance is
generally very aggressive building in stratocumulus from the
south overnight, however given poor boundary layer dewpoint
initializations on the model guidance, it would seem they are
overplaying low level moisture available to generate stratus.
That said, some pooling of moisture is present to the west of
the ridges and will likely work northward overnight through MGW,
allowing for some MVFR CIGs as it moves north. Elsewhere, most
locations will have difficulty generating stratocumulus in the
guidance, however they will be monitored should anything
The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday