Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 160050 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 850 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Generally dry and warm weather will continue on Wednesday. Rain is likely with a Thursday cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A weak short wave has exited the northern CWA this evening, with dissipating showers having exited likewise. Secondarily, the lake breeze off of Lake Erie has generated another line of showers that has pushed well inland from roughly northern Coshocton County toward Beaver and DuBois as of 830 PM. This activity will continue to perpetuate ESE slowly over the next few hours and has been well handled by the HRRR to this point. Thus, the activity nearing the Pittsburgh area, being the most well-developed, will linger the longest. PoPs were increased along this corridor as it slinks southeastward in the next few hours. With little upstream convective blow off and cumulus dissipation after peak heating, a clear night after the shower activity this evening looks to be in store. Elevated surface dewpoints and calm conditions will thus result in fog, particularly in the lower spots overnight toward sunrise. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... After the passage of today`s wave, heights will briefly build Wednesday, allowing a dry forecast to carry through much of Wednesday. Increasing southwesterly flow late Wednesday night into early Thursday will lift a warm front into the area. Will keep the area dry through the pre-dawn Thursday, but do bring some chance PoPs in for near the Thursday morning rush hour. The warm front will lift north of the area Thursday afternoon, with mostly scattered showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector. The deep parent low lifting north through the Great Lakes will finally swing a cold front into our western zones late Thursday night into Friday morning. While timing differences do exist, it looks as though the broad consensus across model guidance is for high PoPs near or after 00z Friday with the front. If this timing holds, it is not very favorable for strong convection along the front to make it deep into our forecast area. For this reason, the Day 3 marginal risk outlines just our Ohio counties, which seems prudent. Temperatures through the period will remain near average. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Any lingering rain showers will taper down by Saturday as high pressure briefly builds in. A secondary wave Saturday night could bring additional rain chances, but timing will be unfavorable for much else. Broad high pressure will then build into the region for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will remain near average, building into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the evening, though an isolated shower is possible with a weak crossing sfc trough. Patchy late night/early mrng MVFR fog is possible, with IFR likely for valley ports. VFR with diurnal CU is expected Wed under weak ridging. .Outlook... Widespread restriction potential returns with a Thu/Fri cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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