-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 101506
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1106 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING RAIN
AND SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SPRINKLES WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PASSES. MID DECK EXTENDS BACK ACROSS MICHIGAN
WITH BREAKS AT TIMES. HAVE UPPED SKY COVER INTO AFTERNOON WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING WAITING UNTIL THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...ARRIVING LOCALLY TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ALONG THE
FRONT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY...PASSING FROM
KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIP
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS THAT WILL BRING CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION IN MOST LOCATIONS TO CHANGE FROM RAIN
TO SNOW SLIGHTLY QUICKER. COUPLED JET IS MOST APPARENT IN 00Z
NAM...ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWED THIS SIGNATURE TO A
LESSER EXTENT. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS HIGHEST RATES COULD OCCUR
AS PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR ALOFT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. OVERALL...FEEL THAT SOUTHERNMOST
LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
DEPENDING ON JUST HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION OF THE STORM IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
ANY GIVEN SCENARIO TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE ALL THE WAY
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS UP NORTH AND LOWER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THURS. COLD AIR WONT LINGER
LONG AS STRONG WAA KICKS IN BY THURS EVENING AS A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE COLDER THAN AVG TEMPS THURS WILL GIVE
WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG TEMPS FRI BEFORE ANOTHER...WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION AS MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE
FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER RUNS. COLDER AIR LINGERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER ERN
CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOWER THIS MORNING...BUT
PRIMARILY THICKER CLOUD COVER. STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
MON WITH GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING. CLOUDS DISSIPATE MON AFTN AND
EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE SOME BORDERLINE MVFR
STRATUS FOR ERN TERMINALS OVRNGT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO WED EVENING AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BREEZY COMBINATION OF WARMTH WITH INCRSG
DEWPOINTS FOLLOWED BY RAIN WL ELIMINATE ANY RMNG SNOW IN THE
RIDGES. WITH THE QPF OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM ON THE ORDER OF
THREE QUARTERS TO AN INCH...FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD BE
LOCAL...HOWEVER...RIDGE ZONE CREEKS AND THE MONONGAHELA RIVER
BASINS WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS THE RMNG WATER EQUIVALENT IS
ACTIVATED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$