Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181810 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 110 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Snow will taper off this morning and temperatures will moderate during the day. The start of the work week will be warm and wet. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Made only minor adjustments to the forecast. The radar is clear of precipitation echoes, and webcams continue to indicate no significant activity along the ridges. Expect the clouds to continue to break up into a cumulus field, with these decreasing later this afternoon as moisture wanes. Temperatures are mostly on track around seasonable values. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Continued the idea of slowing the onset of precipitation late tonight and Monday morning, as the intrusion of upper level lift is slowed and weakened by some minor ridging aloft. Rain will overspread the entire area Monday morning, moving northward along the surface warm front and rising upper level heights. By Monday evening, most of the area should be well into the warm sector and upper level heights will continue to slowly increase Monday night. This will require me to remove PoPs for much of the region Monday evening, with the exception of the far north, which will lie in close enough proximity to the surface boundary that a passing shower cannot be ruled out. By late Monday night, the warm sector will have spread across the entire region and the upper level ridge will have settled in, allowing for a dry forecast. Mainly dry forecast will continue through most of Tuesday with ridging aloft taking hold. A passing shower is possible across the north Tuesday morning, as a weak shortwave rides over top of the ridge, but only chance PoPs were indicated for this feature. Temperatures will push well above normal both Monday and Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... While the GFS and ECMWF have wavered on the timing for the cold front passage over the last few days, there is general consensus that this will happen late Wednesday into Thursday morning. This will bring the best chance for rain, but also an end to the very warm temperatures. The front will linger to the southeast, keeping a chance of showers in the forecast. Even after the cold front passes, temperatures should still remain above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MVFR stratocu will continue to dissipate under building high pressure with nearly clear skies overnight. Some wind shear is possible as a warm front lifts across the region early Monday, with restrictions in rain also likely. Will trend toward low MVFR cigs as the rain spreads northeastward, though did not want to go as pessimistic as the guidance suggested. Winds will remain light until late in the TAF period tomorrow, with a wind shift to the south expected. OUTLOOK... Occasional restrictions are possible through much of the week as several systems cross the Ohio Valley.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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