Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 112335 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH 6PM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY POPS AND TEMPERATURES...KEEPING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY LONGER FOR THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE ECHOES HAVE HELD ON THE LONGEST. ALTHOUGH THE VERY COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT...LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COULD PLUMMET ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT. THINK THE CLOUDS WILL HANG IN LONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THRU THE EVE AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP INVERSIONS...AND WKNG LAPSE RATES. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD AVG AROUND 15 DEG BELOW SEASONAL LVLS USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS BLENDED GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC RGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITH BETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER. WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSER CHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NR OR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM SUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS AND THE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOW PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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