Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270541 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 141 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather can be expected until the approach of low pressure on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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No major changes to overnight period needed. Just some minor adjustments to cloud cover and an update of temperatures. Whatever is left of the weak boundary over West Virginia continues to wobble under the zonal flow aloft. Each small juxtaposition is caused by the passage of upper level energy in the aforementioned flow. With daytime heating, and its resultant atmospheric destabilization, spotty convection could fire over the southern edge of my forecast area. The good news for most of us is the real juicy air will remain shunted to the south, and allow for warm but comfortable conditions.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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POPs will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on Thursday. For now, highest POPS and QPF resides over the southeast portions of the forecast area where the track of the low should progress. Still seeing model differences in the path of surface wave and the upper level support which will enhance it Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. System will slowly exit Friday decreasing pop and cloud coverage.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A series of shortwaves and development of a broad, but shallow trough over the Eastern CONUS is forecast to support periodic rain chances and seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Ridging should return dry weather by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday with building high pressure N of I 70. A weak surface boundary south of I 70 could result in a few showers through early tonight, but mention was reserved for amendments as coverage looks to be sparse near terminals. Mid and upper cloudiness is expected to diminish with the exiting disturbance, so fog, including IFR, was included for ports outside of the Pit metro area. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure should return potential restrictions late Thursday and Friday, with upper troughing maintaining periodic restriction chances through the weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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