Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 010443 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1243 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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SHORTWAVE AND WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS REGION OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS EXITING NEAR KDUJ...AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. DRY AND SEASONAL LATER TODAY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... EXPECT DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY. CONSIDERING YESTERDAYS 12Z MODELS SPED UP FRONTAL TIMING WHILE LAST NIGHTS 00Z MODELS DELAYED THE FRONTAL TIMING...WILL NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO PRECIP TIMING EVEN THOUGH TODAYS 12Z MODELS SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY WITH 00Z MODELS. AT THIS POINT...SREF CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER COMPARED TO DETERMINISTIC MODELS. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE FRONT PASSES ON MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE WITH SEASONAL VALUES FOR EARLY AUGUST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BKN CLDS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND INCREASED MOISTURE. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE NEAR ZZV. TOMORROW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN DIURNAL CU AND WNW WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS GUSTING TO 15 KTS. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING DISTURBANCES.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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