Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 221734
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
134 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017
Much colder temperatures today with lots of afternoon sun.
Temperatures will moderate into the weekend with rain chances
returning on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Flurries continue to sink south across the CWA from a slowly
weakening lake band. Moisture is very shallow in this band - in
fact, it was snowing at the office here in an airmass of 0.10
precipitable water as sampled by the morning raob. Expect the
band to dissipate/mix out over the next couple of hours. Have
lingered flurries through 16Z before a mostly sunny afternoon.
Temperatures in fine shape and made only very minor tweaks. Gusty
north-northwest winds will continue throughout the day.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will maintain dry conditions through Thursday with
moderating temperatures expected.
As models begin to get a better handle on the progression of a
warm front Thursday night/Friday morning, and its associated
precipitation, as well as the thermal profile ahead of the
boundary, the risk for widespread wintry mix is beginning to
subside. The tough part of the forecast is where models are
pin pointing the best locations for measurable precipitation,
late Thursday night, is where temperatures could be cold enough
to cause some headaches. The other question will be, since we
are now in late March and temperatures are expected to warm on
Thursday, overnight cooling will be key and this will be
retarded by the rapid onset of mid clouds Thursday evening. Will
keep in a mention of frozen precipitation across the far north
and northeast, but this is done so with low confidence and based
solely on model thermal profiles.
Showers are expected on Friday, although how much coverage
there will be is still in question. Strong warm air advection on
Friday will allow for above normal temperatures.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A fairly-active, split-stream jet pattern is expected for the
remainder of the forecast, with a series of closed lows expected
in the swrn CONUS and a progressive northern stream.
Moisture spreading ahead of these southern-stream lows will
bring a wetter and cloudier (but warmer) period into early next
week. Precipitation will be driven by the passage of these
ejecting lows, the timing of which is not clear at this time.
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clear skies dominate the area as broad high pressure builds in.
Gusty north winds will diminish this evening, gradually shifting
to the southeast by Thursday morning. VFR conditions will then
carry into Thursday afternoon, despite the increase of high
The next chance for widespread restrictions should come on
Friday with a front tracking across the lower Great Lakes.