Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 071510 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1010 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Other than isolated snow showers this afternoon, mainly dry and cold weather is expected until snow shower chances return with a Saturday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Minor updates made to the near-term forecast based on latest obs and model guidance. Previous discussion follows.. Patchy stratocu should continue to cross the area with broad upper troughing and cold air aloft. A crossing shortwave with weak lift/moisture in the snow growth region could result in some isolated snow showers this afternoon, with scattered coverage in the higher terrain E-SE of PIT. A weak shortwave across NW PA could produce isolated snow showers there also, though boundary layer flow is progged to stay SW to WSW keeping any lake enhancement N of the area. Temperatures are expected to be around 5 degrees below seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A broad upper trough is progged to persist across the Eastern CONUS through the period as it gradually deepens through the weekend. The sharpening trough and an associated weak surface low and cold front is progged to cross the Lower Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley region Sat and Sat evening. Maintained likely POPs for snow showers with it`s approach and passage. Some light accumulations are possible. Temperatures are expected to remain 5 to 10 degrees below average. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A longwave trough is progged to persist across the Eastern CONUS through the period, as shortwaves rotate through the trough and maintain periodic snow shower chances. Temperatures are expected to average around 10 degrees below seasonal levels most days through the period. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Patches of stratocumulus will continue to float across the region this morning, with most ceilings remaining VFR initially. A weak mid-level wave arriving this afternoon will provide more general cloud cover, with ceilings either low VFR or high-end MVFR. Isolated to scattered snow showers will be possible this afternoon. Most of these should be fairly light and will provide brief and spotty restrictions at most. Best coverage will be south and east of Pittsburgh, where the best MVFR ceiling chances reside as well. Some clearing will start to work into southeast Ohio overnight as the wave departs. Southwest winds are expected to gust to between 15 and 25 knots once again this afternoon. Gusts will diminish tonight as winds slowly veer towards the west. .Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions is Saturday afternoon/evening as a shortwave trough approaches and increases chances for snow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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