Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 241020
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
620 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016
High pressure will give dry weather and seasonable temperatures
for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front is crossing into northern West Virginia at 07z and will
continue to shift south this morning. Some low stratus and mid
deck with and behind the boundary will mix out later this morning
as much lower dew points arrive on northeast winds. High pressure
will bring clear skies tonight through Sunday, with seasonably cool
temperatures across the I-80 corridor closer to the core of cooler
air aloft. Temperatures from Pittsburgh south will be up to 5
degrees above average.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deepening Low pressure moving into the upper Great lakes
will sweep a cold front across the region Monday, with models now
relatively close on timing the front east of the ridges by Monday
evening. Have bumped up POPs to likely with the fropa considering
the strong dynamics with the front, although QPF will be on the
lighter side as moisture will be limited. Precip will end in the
ridges later Monday evening, with much cooler air working into the
region Tuesday as a closed low aloft shifts east across the
lakes. A few showers may develop in the cold advection north of
I-80 Tuesday afternoon, but southwest flow on the front of the
upper low will keep bulk of lake enhanced showers north of the
region. Temperatures will warm into the 70s to near 80 ahead of
the front Monday, followed by a sharp cool down into the 60s
behind the front Tuesday.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large upper trough will remain over the Great Lakes for the start of
the period, transitioning eastward and replaced by broad ridging by
the end of the week. The best chance for showers will be Wednesday
in cold advection/lake enhanced showers as the trough pivots to the
east. After Wednesday the deterministic models diverge slightly but
ensemble guidance suggests a prolonged dry period with gradual
warming to near and above seasonal levels. Have opted to stay close
to a blend of guidance, with less emphasis on the ecmwf.
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Stratus will continue to diminish with dry advection expected.
Cigs remain VFR or MVFR in most cases, with the excetion of ZZV,
HLG, and DUJ. Will tempo restrictions at a couple of sites this
morning but otherwise expect VFR to prevail. Wind will remain
light out of the north through the remainder of the period.
.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will come with a late Monday
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