Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 131752 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1252 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A wintry mix of precipitation will be possible both Saturday and Sunday night into Monday morning. Well above normal temperatures are then expected by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Building high pressure will bring a break in the weather today with dry conditions and near-normal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The next-in-series of shortwaves in zonal flow is projected for a Friday night approach, and Saturday passage. That system is expected to spread a wintry mix, highlighted by freezing rain, along the aforementioned frontal boundary, which will stall, then develop toward the I 70 corridor as a warm front with the advance of the disturbance. Model trends continue to focus precip on areas south of Pittsburgh, especially the I 70 corridor and ridge zones. Ice accumulation through these areas may be problematic, so a freezing rain advisory was issued for those areas. Passage of that shortwave on Saturday eve will diminish any precip and pull the front southward again. Temperature very near the average is again anticipated for Saturday night and Sunday as surface high pressure settles over the region under zonal flow aloft. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A deeper trough is progged to develop over the plains for the start of the new week. Warmer weather under the resulting rising heights over the Upper Ohio Region may be preceded by some additional freezing rain in the predawn of Monday. That HWO mention was maintained. Warmer weather is then expected to dominate once again until the trough ejects and drags a front toward the area late in the period. Superblend guidance represented this scenario well and was deviated from only in POP timing. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Scattered stratocu will continue to diminish this afternoon, with prevailing VFR expected for a period until deeper moisture with a northward advancing low pressure system and short wave approaches. Models continue to tighten the gradient of precipitation across the region, as surface ridge strengthens over Ontario and Quebec. But, it still appears that a deterioration to MVFR will occur at most of the terminals, save for KFKL and KDUJ as we go into Saturday. Weak warm advection aloft with cold air at the surface supports a period of wintry mix, with freezing rain likely at KZZV, KMGW, and KLBE, with a brief period of similar conditions possible further north. At this time, confidence is highest in the ports mentioned above, so freezing rain has been added to the end of the TAF period. Conditions will further worsen over those same locations, with a period of IFR possible. Have started the trend in that direction. At this time, KFKL and KDUJ may remain VFR through the 30 hour period. The nw wind will veer to the ese and remain light through the period. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are expected through early next week as a series of disturbances cross the region.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday FOR MDZ001. OH...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday FOR OHZ057>059-068-069. PA...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday FOR PAZ031-075. Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday FOR PAZ074-076. WV...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday FOR WVZ004-012-021-509. Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday FOR WVZ510>514. && $$

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