Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221734 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 134 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Much colder temperatures today with lots of afternoon sun. Temperatures will moderate into the weekend with rain chances returning on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Flurries continue to sink south across the CWA from a slowly weakening lake band. Moisture is very shallow in this band - in fact, it was snowing at the office here in an airmass of 0.10 precipitable water as sampled by the morning raob. Expect the band to dissipate/mix out over the next couple of hours. Have lingered flurries through 16Z before a mostly sunny afternoon. Temperatures in fine shape and made only very minor tweaks. Gusty north-northwest winds will continue throughout the day. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will maintain dry conditions through Thursday with moderating temperatures expected. As models begin to get a better handle on the progression of a warm front Thursday night/Friday morning, and its associated precipitation, as well as the thermal profile ahead of the boundary, the risk for widespread wintry mix is beginning to subside. The tough part of the forecast is where models are pin pointing the best locations for measurable precipitation, late Thursday night, is where temperatures could be cold enough to cause some headaches. The other question will be, since we are now in late March and temperatures are expected to warm on Thursday, overnight cooling will be key and this will be retarded by the rapid onset of mid clouds Thursday evening. Will keep in a mention of frozen precipitation across the far north and northeast, but this is done so with low confidence and based solely on model thermal profiles. Showers are expected on Friday, although how much coverage there will be is still in question. Strong warm air advection on Friday will allow for above normal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A fairly-active, split-stream jet pattern is expected for the remainder of the forecast, with a series of closed lows expected in the swrn CONUS and a progressive northern stream. Moisture spreading ahead of these southern-stream lows will bring a wetter and cloudier (but warmer) period into early next week. Precipitation will be driven by the passage of these ejecting lows, the timing of which is not clear at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Clear skies dominate the area as broad high pressure builds in. Gusty north winds will diminish this evening, gradually shifting to the southeast by Thursday morning. VFR conditions will then carry into Thursday afternoon, despite the increase of high clouds. Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions should come on Friday with a front tracking across the lower Great Lakes. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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