Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 242002 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 302 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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FRONT WILL CROSS REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY END TIME STILL LOOKS GOOD AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL SLACKEN A BIT. ONLY STRAY SHOWERS NOW AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HEAD EAST AND MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OF SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY COASTAL EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING. FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT. TAX
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON VISIBILITY...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN. EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WIND OF 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE FRONTS PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING BUT GUSTS TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PER THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBS...SOME MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A PERIOD THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WITH THE LOW LIFTING THE LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTH OPTED TO CARRY VFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE. CITY FORECAST RECORD/YEAR PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL 71 69/1931 MORGANTOWN 74 72/1979 ZANESVILLE 65 70/2001 NEW PHILADELPHIA 65 71/1979 WHEELING 71 70/2001 DUBOIS 67 61/1979 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001. OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012- 021>023-041. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.
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&& $$

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