Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241432 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 932 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Periodic rain chances will continue through Sunday. Conditions should be dry for the beginning of the work week, with rain returning to the forecast by Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A crossing shortwave trough will result in rain shower development late this morning through early afternoon. After a brief lull, activity will pick up again this evening as a low pressure system over the midwest deepens and deepens and the stalled boundary just to our south lifts north over the forecast area as a warm front. Given the surge of PWATs above 1", a strengthening low-level jet, and deep warm cloud layer, rain production should be efficient. With an already saturated ground and streams/creeks already near bankful will need to monitor closely for localized flooding problems tonight. The areal flood watch remains in effect. Especially if elevated convection develops on the nose of the low level jet. There is some disagreement in latest model runs regarding placement...but overall the trend is slightly to the north. Temperatures will vary little over the course of the day, but increase overnight behind the warm front. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The period of wet weather comes to an end Sunday as the cold front finally sweeps through the forecast area. This will usher in much drier air that will lead to clearing and increased sunshine through Sunday. Dry weather will carry into Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds in under nearly zonal flow aloft. The increased sun Monday and Tuesday will keep temperatures above-average. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry weather established early next week will give way to another disturbance near the end of next week. Models continue to show great difficulty in handling the evolution of this next precipitation maker. With much uncertainty, Superblend was utilized heavily in the construction of the extended and, in general, PoPs were kept in the high chance or low likely range. The trend in the forecast that has been a little more consistent is a downward movement in temperatures over next weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IFR/low MVFR ceilings will be the rule with scattered showers through the TAF period. Low level wind shear will become a more of a concern overnight as the low level jet strengthens. OUTLOOK... Restrictions are expected to continue into Sunday as a cold front passes. && .HYDROLOGY... Numerous forecast points are already at action stages across the region. 2 successive disturbances over the next 36 hours will drop rainfall amounts ranging from 1.00 to 2.00 inches across the region. River Flood watches may need to be converted to Warnings. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MDZ001. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069. PA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>514. && $$

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