Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240447 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1247 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather will return for the remainder of the week as an upper-level disturbance moves slowly across the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... An approaching shortwave will result in light and scattered shower development this evening south of I-70...with coverage gradually spreading further north as the night progresses and the very dry lower levels begin to saturate. Scattered precipitation remains a possibility through Wednesday as a deep upper trough continues east towards the forecast area...becoming more widespread by early Wednesday evening as moisture increase further and the upper trough axis moves moves over the ohio river valley providing more favorable dynamics. Temperature on Wed will see little difference to those today, as insolation may be limited by clouds but cloud cover overnight will limit radiational cooling effects and provide a warmer initial state. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A strong upper-level low pressure system will meander from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley late in the week, leading to a persistent active weather pattern through the end of the week. Although air temperature will decrease slightly into the upper 60s owing to cloud cover, cold air aloft associated with this low is expected to provide a modest increase in instability Thu and Fri, which will increase the chances for more-vigorous convection, especially as the low-level wind flow veers to more of a wly component. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The slow-moving upper low will advance newd by Friday night, and an upper ridge will take hold briefly. Quiescent conditions will be relatively short-lived as the mid-level ridge axis progresses quickly ewd. The net effect will be a return to deep swly flow aloft for the weekend. This will bring Gulf moisture toward the area again, resulting in increasing temperature and humidity and increasing convective chances at least through Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR by morning in some areas mainly near and W of I 79 as low level moisture increases with a crossing shortwave. Maintained a VCSH mention in the TAF with sct shower coverage expected. Improvement back to VFR is expected by late morning/early afternoon before deterioration back to MVFR in showers late in the day with approaching low pressure. Increasing SE winds are expected today with an increasing pressure gradient, with a few 20-25kt gusts especially for the higher terrain ports. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely through Thu night, and again over the weekend, with low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.