Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 151821 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 221 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front will cross this afternoon with showers and gusty wind. After a cool start to the week, building high pressure should result in dry and gradually warming weather through the rest of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Cloud cover ahead of the front has spread into eastern Ohio and northwestern PA early this afternoon. This could be a limiting factor to any further destabilization as the precip approaches. That being said, will keep an isolated thunder mention in the forecast with weak instability is indicated just south and east of lake Erie based on the latest mesoanalysis. A strengthening low level jet to 50-60kt will support strong wind just off the surface that could be mixed down as the front crosses this afternoon. Still think that a marginal risk for this threat is valid. Regardless, tightening pressure gradient will keep at least 30mph wind gusts possible through this evening. Cold front will be east of the region by midnight, with temperatures cooling back to seasonable levels overnight. Some residual shower activity will continue in cool northwest flow, mainly north of PIT and in the terrain.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Crossing upper trough will maintain mostly cloudy conditions and shower chances for Monday. Best chance for showers will generally be north of PIT as surface ridging starts to build eastward. Patchy frost is possible Monday night under building high pressure, though the best chance is expected to be where the growing season has already ended, precluding a forecast mention at this time. The building high should then maintain dry weather and mainly clear skies through the rest of the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Broad high pressure will maintain dry conditions with gradual warming through the period. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR will continue with the approach and passage of a cold front this afternoon and evening. Gusty SW winds are expected in advance of the front, with local gusts of 35 to 45 kt possible with showers and FROPA. There is only a slim chance of a thunderstorm developing, and as of early afternoon the more potent showers remained north of Lake Erie. A wind shift to the WNW and MVFR stratocu cigs are expected after FROPA through early Monday until a return to VFR by Monday afternoon. .Outlook... No widespread restrictions expected under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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