Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191438 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1038 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are expected with the encroachment of an upper trough today. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The late morning update featured further adjustments to near term POPs as per the latest radar and high res model trends. Convective activity emerging out of Ohio has weakened and diminished rapidly in coverage, but given the available boundary layer moisture and heating, rapid destabilization of under the encroaching upper trough should support convective redevelopment along the associated weak surface reflection/reinforcing front. Showers and storms are projected to exit with the supporting shortwave by evening. Precip. probabilities for the scenario were reconstructed using consensus-short blended guidance. A marginal severe risk remains, with inhibition via marginal shear and a lack of overall instability despite a decent mid level thermal trough.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Dry and cool advection with subsidence will support quiet and comfortable conditions through Sunday. Warm, moist advection with flat ridging in advance of a midwestern shortwave as per the latest model solutions indicate increased humidity with a rapid temperature moderation above the averages for Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The aforementioned midwest trough/associated front are likely to provide the next precip chance by Tuesday night. Eastern CONUS troughing are then forecast to support temperatures a few degrees under the averages for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the morning. Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase through the afternoon with the approach and passage of a shortwave trough. Will maintain a VCTS/tempo TS mention in the tafs. VFR should return by evening under building high pressure. Surface flow will generally remain from the west at 10kts with occasional gusts to 15kts. .Outlook... Widespread restriction potential returns with a late Tue/early Wed cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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