Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261841 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 241 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THOUGH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT INSTABILITY. DESPITE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROJECTIONS ARE MARGINAL...AND WITH NAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS USUAL OVERDONE...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AND LIMITED TO OHIO THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MORNING INSTABILITY CHART. ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE LATEST SREF GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WESTERN PORTS. RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE THE DEGRADATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 07/15

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