-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271038
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RE-FIRE ONCE THE NEXT
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
AS PREVIOUS RUNS. ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AND SHEAR VALUES
HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SUNLIGHT...OR THE
LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH
WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER ERUPTS IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...AND IT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FORECAST AREA.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUITE A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. CONVECTION IS REDEVELOPING
WELL TO THE WEST IN INDIANA/KENTUCKY AND CONTINUES TO SHOW ESE
MOVEMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...LINGERING OUTFLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A
SURFACE LOW PLUS AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY. AFTER SOME LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO ACHIEVE VFR FOR A TIME LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TRIED TO INSERT TIMING FOR
CONVECTION VIA TEMPO GROUPS...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED SOMETIME
BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUIET DOWN/MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING
MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$