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465
FXUS61 KPBZ 280053
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
853 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool temperatures are expected tonight under high pressure.
Wednesday looks dry, before showers, storms, and warmer
temperatures return Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A quiet night is foreseen as surface high pressure slides across
the Ohio Valley. The remaining cumulus will continue to
dissipate, with mostly clear skies overnight. Some patchy fog is
possible over a few of the rivers in the southeast CWA. Dew
points will likely remain too low to support more widespread
fog. Cool temperatures a degree or two below statistical
guidance are expected, representing values well below normal.
See climate section for record values.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging will build over the region on Wednesday and temperature
will recover to near average with insolation and increased warm
advection.

Cloud coverage will increase Wednesday night ahead of an
approaching shortwave in increasingly zonal flow. The mid-level
disturbance will be over the Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon
which will likely lead to the development of showers and storms.
Have included PoPs on Thursday, generally north of PIT, with
likely PoPs over the far north.

Temperatures on Thursday will continue to trend up, and winds
will be gusty out of the southwest as the pressure gradient
tightens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models are in general agreement in development of a Mississippi
Valley to Eastern CONUS trough this weekend, although actual
amplitude and shortwaves-in-flow continue detail and timing
discrepancies. The POPS and temperature forecasts are thus
close to climo as per a blend of guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR will dominate over the next 24 hours. Cannot rule out some
patchy fog very close to the rivers late tonight given the cool
temperatures, but due to low dewpoints do not currently think it
will be more widespread. Otherwise, the remaining cumulus will
dissipate this evening, with mostly clear skies and light winds
expected through tomorrow.

.OUTLOOK...
Restriction chances will increase during the latter half of the
week with the approach and passage of a cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
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Record low temperatures for June 28th...

Pittsburgh: 47 (1988)
DuBois: 46 (1970)
Zanesville: 46 (1970, 1950)
New Philadelphia: 44 (1988)
Morgantown: 46 (1988)
Wheeling: 43 (1926)

Currently, DuBois is the only location expected to approach its
record low value, but Pittsburgh may come within a couple of
degrees as well.
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&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$