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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191438
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1038 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected with the encroachment of
an upper trough today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The late morning update featured further adjustments to near
term POPs as per the latest radar and high res model trends.
Convective activity emerging out of Ohio has weakened and
diminished rapidly in coverage, but given the available boundary
layer moisture and heating, rapid destabilization of under the
encroaching upper trough should support convective redevelopment
along the associated weak surface reflection/reinforcing front.
Showers and storms are projected to exit with the supporting
shortwave by evening. Precip. probabilities for the scenario
were reconstructed using consensus-short blended guidance.

A marginal severe risk remains, with inhibition via marginal
shear and a lack of overall instability despite a decent mid
level thermal trough.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Dry and cool advection with subsidence will support quiet and
comfortable conditions through Sunday.

Warm, moist advection with flat ridging in advance of a midwestern
shortwave as per the latest model solutions indicate increased
humidity with a rapid temperature moderation above the averages
for Monday.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The aforementioned midwest trough/associated front are likely to
provide the next precip chance by Tuesday night. Eastern CONUS
troughing are then forecast to support temperatures a few
degrees under the averages for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the morning. Thunderstorm
chances are expected to increase through the afternoon with the
approach and passage of a shortwave trough. Will maintain a
VCTS/tempo TS mention in the tafs. VFR should return by evening
under building high pressure.

Surface flow will generally remain from the west at 10kts with
occasional gusts to 15kts.

.Outlook...
Widespread restriction potential returns with a late Tue/early
Wed cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$