Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Graphics & Text |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
176 FXUS61 KPBZ 291315 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 915 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Shower and storm activity will remain focused south of Pittsburgh, near a stationary front. Scattered storm chances increase tomorrow, a few storms could produce damaging winds and/or flooding.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
KEY MESSAGES: - Isolated shower and/or storms will be focused south of Pittsburgh today - Patchy fog possible tonight --------------------------------------------------------------- The probability of fog and low-level status clouds will decrease from now through 11am this morning with surface heating. A stalled boundary, just south of I-70, will keep most showers and/or storms south of the forecast area. The exception may be a few showers/storms across the WV/PA ridges. Temperatures will remain above-normal under increasingly zonal 500mb flow. Most of the region will top out in the mid/upper 80s. With elevated dew points, the heat index values will climb near 90 degrees. Tonight, little change is expected with temperatures dropping into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Patchy fog will again be possible as low-level moisture lingers, though increasing cloud cover should keep this from being widespread. If there is fog, high resolution models are noting areas south of Pittsburgh--likely near the stationary boundary.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Storm and heavy rainfall chances return Monday and Tuesday. - Temperatures remain above-average, but below heat advisory criteria. ---------------------------------------------------------------- The front will begin to lift back northward late Sunday night into Monday, with showers likely returning to the area Monday morning. Elevated PWATs with southwesterly flow and plentiful instability will again mean flooding and low-end severe threats are on the table. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Monday/Monday night, and SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe wind. CAMs indicate a more discrete, isolated shower and thunderstorm threat during the afternoon hours, with better organization immediately ahead of a crossing cold front Monday evening into the overnight. Additional convection is expected with frontal passage early Tuesday morning before post-frontal clearing during the day. Northwesterly flow and meager cold advection will keep temperatures closer to seasonal norms Tuesday afternoon and overnight. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - A drier and more seasonable air mass arrives by Wednesday. - A crossing shortwave and cold front may bring low-probability showers on Thursday. - Generally dry, but low probability rain possible Friday and Saturday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry and more seasonable weather will continue Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure builds under quasi-zonal flow aloft. A shortwave is expected to cross on Thursday as a cold front sweeps the area. This will introduce lower-end PoPs Thursday afternoon into the overnight. High pressure looks to return Friday into the weekend, with growing probabilities for dry weather and warming temperatures. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MVFR/IFR clouds and fog are expected to dissolve between 13Z to 16Z with surface heating. The boundary may stall near the Mason-Dixon Line through Sunday, keeping a few stray showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in the area, with MGW having the best chance of seeing impact. For now, Put a PROB30 in for MGW as a thunderstorm can`t fully be ruled out. For the most part, expect light winds through the rest of the TAF period with mainly dry conditions. Cloud cover will be mainly cirrus passing through the area. A chance of fog will be possible again on Sunday night. Outlook... Showers/storms return again Monday as the boundary lifts back north as a warm front. Rain and restriction chances continue into Tuesday, before a cold frontal passage returns VFR conditions for Wednesday and Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hefferan NEAR TERM...Hefferan/Rackley SHORT TERM...Rackley LONG TERM...Rackley AVIATION...Hefferan/DS