-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 091122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
722 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MORE POTENT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NR DAWN UPDATE INCLUDED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OF HOURLY TRENDS.

PREVIOUS...
EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION WILL RESUME LATE TODAY BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND TO CLOSE TO SEASONAL
VALUES.

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES COULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FROM DROPPING TOO
MUCH DESPITE SURFACE HIGH. FOR NOW MAINTAINED LOW TEMPS IN THE
30`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES COULD BRING
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOR NOW...CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...MAINLY NORTH ON MONDAY AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL STAY WELL NORTH IN NY. WHILE CLOUD COVER MAY
EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THOSE DAYS...WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS AND RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.
WHILE THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE MOST RECENT DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE
THE 850HPA LOW MOVING RIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. BASED ON
BUFKIT PROFILES AND THE LOW PLACEMENT...PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE
IT WOULD START AS RAIN...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW AS COLD ADVECTION ENSUES. THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN REGARDS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...THE CHANGEOVER
AND ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. DID HOWEVER ADD CATEGORICAL
POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATER THAT NIGHT. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH ACROSS CANADA ON FRIDAY.
WHILE PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY WITH THE LOW SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
NORTH FOR THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TAKE QUITE A TUMBLE BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY STORM...WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE HIGH TEENS TO THE LOW 30S ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS S AND E OF PIT ARE EXPD TO CLEAR UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES
THIS MRNG. OTRW...VFR CONDS ARE EXPD THRU TNGT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WDSPRD RSTRNS ARE EXPD TUE NGT INTO WED AS LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS
THE UPR OH VLY RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07