-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240004
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
804 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a cold front passes through the region, dry weather and
seasonable temperatures are expected for the weekend.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Little change was needed to the forecast. Still think that
sprinkles in the vicinity of I-80 will be the extent of
precipitation with the frontal passage tonight, as the dearth of
support means that what little precipitation there is behind the
boundary should die off after sunset. Temperatures were maintained
for now as well.

Previous discussion...

A cold front is currently moving through the region from north to
south, although all of the clouds and precipitation remain north of
the front. The lift with the front is rather weak, and it appears
likely that any precipitation that occurs locally with the front
would be during daytime hours. Have added a mention of possible
sprinkles along the I-80 corridor this evening, but otherwise
think that the region should remain dry with the frontal passage.
However, cloud cover will be rather widespread tonight into
Saturday. Behind the cold front, high pressure over Ontario and
Quebec will begin to inch southward. Although overnight
temperatures will be similar to last night`s low temperatures,
daytime highs on Saturday will be about 10 degrees cooler than
today`s values.

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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain over the region Saturday night into
Sunday. Low pressure developing over the Northern Plains will then
move to the east, bringing another cold front to the region. Models
still are wobbling on the exact arrival time, but rain should move
into the region sometime on Monday and come to an end late Monday
night. Will increase pops again, but still do not have quite enough
confidence to bump up pops to likely at this point. Although
temperatures during this time period will not be as warm as they
have been this week, they will still run a couple of degrees above
normal.

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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There could be some leftover showers Tuesday morning behind the
front and Tuesday night is expected to be dry. As winds veer to the
west-northwest on Wednesday, some lake effect rain showers could
develop, as 850mb temperatures will be as low as 5-6 C while Lake
Erie surface temperatures are between 20-25 C. As winds veer to the
north and high pressure moves into the region, another period of dry
weather is expected. Behind Monday`s cold front, an extended period
of slightly below normal temperatures is expected, with highs
generally in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions will generally deteriorate through the night as a
cold front drops in from the north. Restrictions, including some
IFR ceilings, are expected tonight and into Saturday morning.
Still some questions as to how far south and east the IFR ceilings
invade, but the northern terminals of FKL/DUJ stand the best
chance to see them.

Winds will shift to the north behind the advancing front, but
flow will remain light through the period.

Dry advection and subsidence with building high pressure will
ensure VFR thereafter.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will come with a late Monday
cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

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.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$