Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261030 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 530 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in today ending the flurries and snow showers. Rain chances return with a weak crossing disturbance Monday, and with a Tuesday warm front. A late Wednesday cold front will return wintry weather for the last half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Minor adjustments to hourly trends for the pre dawn update. Previous...Broad mid and upper troughing, cold advection and lake/terrain enhancement should continue to result in light flurries and snow showers early this morning. Building high pressure and backing flow should end this precip later this morning. A clearing trend is also expected today under the building high. Highs are expected to be near or just below the seasonal average. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak shortwave is progged to cross the OH and TN Valley regions late tonight and Monday. This wave and warm advection could result in some light rain, or possibly a brief period of light snow at the onset. Maintained chance pops as confidence in precip occurrence is limited. A warm front is progged to lift north across the region late Monday night and Tuesday with better shower chances. Periods of showers are then expected through Wednesday as several shortwaves cross the area in SW flow ahead of a deepening upper trough and surface low across the Midwest. Elevated instability in place Tue night with a crossing shortwave and increasing shear could result in some thunderstorms. The low`s associated cold front is expected to advance across the area by late Wednesday with showers. A few gusty thunderstorms are possible with increasing shear and strong winds aloft. Moderating temperatures are expected each day, with readings around 20 degrees above average by mid week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Broad upper troughing is progged to set up through late week. This along with lake and terrain enhancement should keep snow shower chances in the forecast. A reinforcing trough on Friday could result in a period of steady snow for some areas. The trough is expected to shift E of the area by Saturday with ridging building in. Below average temperatures are expected through the period. Used manually modified Superblend guidance to account for uncertainty and model differences, with a downward adjustment to temperatures late week in cold advection. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low VFR cigs and intermittent light snow showers will continue through mid-morning before cloud coverage decreases as high pressure builds in from the west. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions will be possible again Tuesday morning as the next weather system impacts the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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