Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 060650 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 250 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD COMPROMISE. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR WILL DETERIORATE TOWARD 12Z AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD EAST TO WEST AS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHOWERS...DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT. GENERAL VFR BEHIND SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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