Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181308 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 808 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer, but damp weather can be expected early this week...followed by cooler temperatures on Wednesday. The next chance for widespread measurable precipitation will be later Friday and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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No changes needed at dawn other than minor adjustments to hourly temperatures and cloud cover. Previous discussion follows. Low level moisture will increase this morning. Model guidance has been consistent with this scenario...which is also supported by upstream 00Z soundings and latest short term guidance. The saturated low levels will result in persistent cloud coverage and periods of light drizzle over the course of the day. Temperatures will be slightly above normal with limited diurnal range.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Zonal flow will be maintained with weak forcing. Overcast skies will persist, however, periods of light precipitation should end by Tuesday afternoon as the depth of the saturated layer decreases. Warm southwesterly surface flow will continue the upward trend in temperatures until a weak boundary drops south across the forecast area Tuesday night and flow shifts to the northwest...resulting in cooler temperatures on Wednesday. Stable conditions should result in little more than continued cloud coverage. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry conditions will continue through the second half of the week with an upward trend in temperatures. Daytime max temperatures on Friday are currently forecast between 10 and 15 degrees above normal. The overall pattern will start to become more meridional towards the end of the week...with the next system to impact the region later on Friday and Saturday. Adjustments in the extended were largely based on superblend and ensemble guidance. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Stratus and eventual drizzle will spread northward through the morning. IFR restrictions have reached ZZV/HLG/MGW and should reach PIT by mid-morning and FKL/DUJ by early afternoon. Once the stratus is in place, little change in airmass is anticipated through the end of the TAF period, so restrictions will continue. South-southwesterly winds will remain at 10kts or less through the forecast period. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely through Tuesday, as abundant low-level moisture remains trapped under the inversion.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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