Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241421 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1021 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE MRNG UPDATE AS BLDG SFC HIGH UNDR UPR TROFG SHUNTS COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVR THE REGION...AND PUSHES LINGERING PCPN CHCS IN VCNTY OF MGW SWD. TEMPS WERE FORECAST NRLY 10 DEG UNDR THE AVGS GIVEN COLD ADVCTN AND STRATOCU EXPECTATIONS WITH LOW...BUT CAPPED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT 24 HOURS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR AND LOW END VFR STRATOCU DVLPMNT IS ANTICIPATED TDA AS COLD AVCTN CONTS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. DRY ADVCTN AND WEAKENING FLOW BY LATE DAY WL SPPRT MORE DECISIVE VFR...WHICH WL CONT THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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