Area Forecast Discussion
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939 FXUS61 KPBZ 041850 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 250 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY LIMITED CAPE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A LOW FREEZING LEVEL WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND PEA-SIZED HAIL OUT OF SOME OF THE LOW-TOPPED CELLS. THERE IS NO RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LOW LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND THE FORECAST AREA SITS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THURSDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... COOL MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND CLOSED LOW COMBINED WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY LOW MAY BECOME BECOME MORE ELONGATED NEAR THE COAST...ALTHOUGH NEWEST LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF LOW LIFTING OUT. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE RIDGES FRIDAY WITH A DRYING TREND ELSEWHERE. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT TO SHUNT LOW TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING BACK SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPR TROF AND SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS PROGGED ERLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...BUILDING RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL AN APPROACHING UPR TROF ADVANCES OUT OF THE MID WEST BY MID WEEK. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVG BY MID WEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNWARD MID WEEK POP ADJUSTMENT...WAS USED FOR THE LONG TERM FCST. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNTIL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR WILL THEN BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THU/FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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