Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 111610 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1110 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END LATER TODAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WILL RETURN SNOW CHANCES...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER TODAY AS MDL PROGGED AND OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP INVERSIONS. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS CONTIUNE IN SOME AREAS...ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH AND THUS CANCELLED THE REMAINING ADVISORY. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER. WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL. STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY. MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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