Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240521 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 121 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A period of above-normal temperature and increasing chances for rain is expected through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Only minor changes to the overnight period. Adjusted PoPs in line with the latest radar/satellite trends and latest hires guidance. Did the same with cloud cover and temperatures were modified toward new guidance. Rain showers will end quickly this morning, as the shortwave riding along a warm front rushes toward the east. Rising upper level heights will follow the exiting wave and push the aforementioned front well to the north. By late morning, the area will be well into the ever expanding warm sector, stabilizing the atmosphere, and keeping the rest of the day dry. Southwest wind and strong warm advection will support temperatures above average, despite mostly cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A series of compact shortwave troughs will develop in the swrn CONUS and eject newd beginning Saturday. As the first wave acquires a negative tilt, shortwave ridging will amplify over the Great Lakes region, leading to a likely-nwd displacement of precipitation on Saturday and Saturday night. Steady height falls will begin to spread across the region Sunday morning as the ejecting wave nears. By afternoon, the associated H5 jet maximum will cross the forecast area, likely invigorating deeper convection with its passage amid modest instability. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... In the wake of the Sunday wave, a brief respite can be expected on Monday amid shortwave ridging before a second trough ejects from the Plains. This second wave will be favorable for widespread rain showers as it crosses on Tuesday as warm, moist air is drawn poleward ahead of the system. Behind the wave, seasonable air is expected to arrive mid-week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... General VFR will be marred this morning by light rain and possibly MVFR at FKL and DUJ as a crossing disturbance interacts with a warm front. An associated llvl jet is expected to support a brief period of llvl wind shear. FKL and DUJ may experience MVFR cigs later today as moisture pools near the frontal boundary, eventual position of which remains questionable. Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions is not expected until the approach of low pressure early on Sunday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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