Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 272145 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 545 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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545pm update...have removed pops from all locations except the southern ridges. Activity continues to fire along the eastern slopes, mainly over West Virginia and Western Maryland. The lack of activity is due to an increase in subsidence under a strengthen eastern ridge and also very warm air aloft, which is providing a cap on the atmosphere. The activity over the eastern slopes looks to be a localized effect, thanks to low level moisture convergence. Observations to the west of the ridges are showing a west-southwesterly wind, while observations to the east are indicating a south-southeasterly flow. The combination of these two are forcing air up the slopes, overcoming the overall downward motion of the atmosphere. Previous discussion... Overnight lows will be relatively warm in the mid to upper 60s and based on maximum dewpoints observed today after the lower levels were given plenty of time to mix, potential for any patchy fog looks minimal. Even warmer temperatures are forecast tomorrow as ridging pumps up further over the forecast area. With no meaningful shortwaves/triggers progged or foreseen, convective activity will again be largely capped off. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Any isolated showers/storms that do pop up should quickly dissipate Saturday evening as conditions stabilize. A trough advancing out of the midwest should approach the region Sunday as the ridge shifts east. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to continue until the trough crosses sometime Monday. Temperatures are expected to continue to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure across the eastern United States should allow for dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front should cross the region Thursday into Friday, with models still differing on how quickly the front will approach the area. Wednesday appears to be the warmest day in the period, although the entire extended forecast will continue to have above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will persist this afternoon, but an isolated shower or storm is possible with a weak crossing disturbance. With showers currently developing along the ridges, have included VCTS for LBE and MGW considering their proximity. For overnight fog potential, have decided to go with a persistence forecast from last night, considering there is little change in the airmass. DUJ is the only terminal that had any extended period of restrictions early this morning, so have gone with a MVFR mention for fog there overnight and VFR conditions elsewhere. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue through the holiday weekend. Conditions should be dry Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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