Area Forecast Discussion
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618 FXUS61 KPBZ 230515 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1215 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain will accompany a cold front across the region tonight.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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The midnight update featured POP and temperature adjustments based on radar, obs., and high res model trends. Otherwise, showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the cold front across the region tonight. System progression and nwd shifting dynamics should limit QPF as per previous forecasts. The only caveat to the line may be some localized gusts of 35 to 45 mph.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Low over Missouri will lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes through Tuesday. Expect high temperatures Tuesday to be realized early as cold advection brings values down through the afternoon. Cooling temperature aloft will support an eventual change to snow showers, but boundary layer readings off the ridges will not support accumulation until after dark. Thereafter, model profiles do not indicate saturation deep enough into the snow growth zone for very long, outside of any upslope later Tuesday evening/night, so any snow accumulation will be light or negligible. Northwesterly flow will maintain snow chances, again with the likelihood best in the terrain, through Wednesday before high pressure builds overhead for the remainder of the period. Expect seasonable temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Building high pressure in advance of another low emerging over the Plains is likely to dry and warm conditions before rain chances return for next weekend. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions should briefly deteriorate to MVFR overnight as showers accompany a crossing cold front. A return to VFR is expected after FROPA, though a deterioration back to MVFR stratocu cigs is expected by afternoon/evening with a crossing upper trough and cold advection. Scattered rain or snow showers are also expected with the trough. A low level jet ahead of the cold front should result in LLWS until FROPA. A tightening pressure gradient and mixing should result in gusty SW winds this aftn. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are possible until high pressure builds Wed night. Restriction potential returns with a Sat cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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