Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200507 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 107 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring the next chance of rain later on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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No changes were needed for the early morning update. Previous... The early eve update featured some upward adjustments to cloud cover and temperature based on the latest cloud-clearing trends and expectations. Increasing subsidence/lowering inversion is expected to suppress the overcast late tonight/early on Monday. Local temperature will depend on the degree of clearing, but in general, expect lows close to the averages. A shortwave trough is projected across the Upper Ohio Region on Monday afternoon. Attendant moisture and dynamics are forecast to support likely PoPs, hence the upward adjustment for the entire area. The only chance for thunder in the scenario may come with elevated convection in the eve given the capped boundary layer, but progged instability and convergence above that cap is too weak to support a mention at moment. A near-average high temperature forecast was maintained.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The shortwave trough/associated cold front is forecast to cross the region on Monday night, with any residual rain changing briefly to snow. Another shortwave/attendant jet streak moving through the base of the resulting Northeast CONUS trough may support additional precip later on Tuesday, mainly to the south of Pittsburgh given the current positioning-prognosis of the frontal zone. Have thus added some chance PoPs to areas mainly from Pittsburgh south. Passage of that disturbance is forecast to dig the eastern trough further, thus supporting a better cold push across the immediate area. More snow, albeit minor accumulation, is thus possible for the ridges on Tuesday night. Building surface high pressure should quickly suppress that potential by Wednesday, but temperature is likely to remain under the averages under a more amplified Eastern CONUS trough. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A building ridge is forecast to support moderating temperature for the close of the week with only low precip chances expected with a Friday warm front. Rain chances will be on the increase by Sunday though as a midwestern trough develops toward the Upper Ohio Region. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The cloud blanket in the form of MVFR and low-end VFR stratocu is expected to persist overnight, before increasing subsidence begins to suppress the low cloudiness by early morning. A brief period of VFR will be interrupted by deteriorating conditions in rain late Monday afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough crosses the region. Outlook... Restrictions are likely with the approach and passage of a Mon night cold front, and with a reinforcing front later on Tuesday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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