Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 020535
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1235 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016
A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds
and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Scattered sprinkles or flurries overnight as cold advection
continues under closed low moving across eastern Canada.
Southwest flow will keep bulk of lake enhanced snow showers well
north through friday, with only scattered snow showers north of
I-80 and in the ridges. Cold advection and clouds will keep a
small diurnal range in place for temperatures, which will stay
mainly in the 30s.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As winds shift to the northwest Friday night, coverage of snow
showers will slightly increase, but any snow accumulations Friday
night into Saturday should remain minimal. As low pressure moves
east late Saturday, any precipitation should come to an end.
Although some partial clearing is expected Saturday night, clouds
will increase once again on Sunday as the next systems approach
from the west. Have slowed down the arrival of precipitation,
which should generally keep the area dry during the day.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Still a bit unsure about precipitation chances Sunday night into
Monday as long range models are showing that two system may
bracket the area to the north and south. Stuck with chance pops.
Models are in better consensus bringing precipitation in with low
pressure Monday night into Tuesday, and have gone with likely pops
during this time period. A bit of model uncertainty continues once
again for precipitation later in the week, with the GFS not
showing a potent low pressure system that the ECMWF has remained
consistent with for the last couple days on Thursday. Although
temperatures will be above normal Tuesday and Wednesday,
Thursday`s cold front will bring in the coldest air of the season
Thursday night into Friday.
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Broad upper troughing and cold W-WNW flow should maintain a
stratocu layer across the area through the TAF period. MVFR
cigs are expected for ports N of PIT, and a few snow showers are
possible as a weak shortwave crosses in the afternoon. VFR cigs
from PIT south early this morning should deteriorate to MVFR after
sunrise as lower cigs move in from the W.
Gusty west winds are expected especially during the daylight
hours as a tight pressure gradient exists across the area.
Ceiling restrictions are likely through Saturday night in cold
W-NW flow. Restrictions are possible late Sunday/Monday, and again
Tuesday with low pressure.
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