Area Forecast Discussion
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660 FXUS61 KPBZ 200202 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 902 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather is expected under a high pressure ridge through Tuesday. Rain chances return with a Wednesday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Rain has exited the area as a warm front lifts N across NW PA. Otherwise, shortwave ridging S of the front should result in dry weather overnight. With the area in the warm sector, lows are expected to be 30 to 35 degrees above average. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Record breaking highs forecast for Tuesday. With the warm front pushing well north of the area Tuesday morning and the strengthening upper-level ridge nudging in from the south, dry weather will be maintained. Cloudy morning sky conditions will give way to gradual clearing through the day as the south- southwesterly flow fully mixes down the dry air aloft. High low temperatures, increasing insolation, strong warm advection, and building heights should all mean efficient warming is expected. High temperatures were kept on the high side of guidance, but a degree or two below the high MEX/MAV numbers as recent moist conditions will be a minor limiting factor. Regardless, highs are forecast to break records for Feb 20th. A climate section has been inserted below. The aforementioned ridge will keep the forecast area dry through at least Wednesday morning. Finally, the upper-level flow will steer the central U.S. low northeastward through Ontario, flopping the cold front over our area west to east. Some timing differences exist, but highest rain chances look to be during the day Wednesday. Current timing has this sharp boundary creating non-diurnal temperature curve for some, especially further north and east. Locations south and east of Pittsburgh should see one more strong warming day before the temperatures drop. We could make a run at a few record highs, but this will be highly dependent on timing of the front. With the upper-level support shunting northeast following the track of the low, only modest lift associated with the surface front is expected. Therefore, potential for high rainfall amounts with this round will be limited. In total, another quarter to half an inch can be expected. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday`s cold front opens the door to a stream of Gulf moisture that will bring multiple rounds of showers to the area. Several shortwaves will pass through the mean flow and could result in additional hydrologic concerns through the weekend. Model differences certainly do exist during this time, but rain chances were kept in the likely range for much of the weekend. A mention of potential water issues has been inserted into the HWO. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Most of the rain has lifted north of the Pittsburgh forecast area as a warm front completes its passage. Some LIFR restrictions continue at FKL and DUJ, but some improvement to at least MVFR is foreseen by late evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will rule south of I-80. Continuing mixing of the low levels should preclude fog development, but these same winds, courtesy of a low level jet, will continue low level wind shear concerns into tomorrow morning. After sunrise, VFR conditions will continue area-wide. Daytime heating will allow LLWS concerns to abate, but the mixing will create wind gusts of up to 25 knots out of the southwest through the afternoon. OUTLOOK... The risk for widespread restrictions returns late Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs are forecast Tuesday and possibly Wednesday Location Feb20 Record Feb21 Record Pittsburgh 68 (1891) 73 (1997) Zanesville 71 (1939) 72 (1997) Morgantown 70 (1994) 75 (1874) DuBois 61 (2016) 60 (1983) Wheeling 68 (1930/2016) 68 (1930) New Philadelphia 69 (1994) 66 (2017) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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