Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260945 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 545 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will end this morning as low pressure exits. Rain chances return tonight, continuing at times through the holiday weekend with another area of low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Adjustments to the hourly trends this morning based on observations and near term model data. Previous...Showers should continue to taper off this morning as low pressure and associated upper support exits. Mainly dry weather is expected by afternoon as weak high pressure builds in, though stratocu should persist with moisture under a temperature inversion. Highs should be a few degrees below seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... After a dry evening, shower chances are expected to increase tonight and Saturday as a shortwave advances out of the Midwest and crosses the region. An associated surface boundary is progged to set up across the Lwr OH valley through Sat night. The most favorable shear/instability is progged S of the boundary, keeping the best chance for strong thunderstorms S of the forecast area, though minimal instability further N could result in a few thunderstorms. The surface boundary is progged to lift N across the area Sunday in response to another crossing shortwave, and low pressure tracking from the MS Valley to the Lwr Great Lakes. Maintained likely POPs for showers/storms with sufficient upper support and moisture expected. The low`s associated cold front is progged for a late Sun/Sun night passage as the low tracks to Ontario, continuing the shower/storm chances. After any morning showers exit Mon, little support is depicted in the models for precip the remainder of the day. Temperatures are expected to average a few degrees above seasonal levels through the period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A broad upper trough is expected to persist across the Great Lakes and NE CONUS region through much of the week. Shortwaves rotating through the main trough should result in periodic low chances for showers, as temperatures return to within a few degrees of average. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... While rain showers will begin to scatter out quite a bit from W-E early this morning, low clouds extend back toward the OH/IN border in a fairly coherent fashion generally AOA FL010. Expect that this should allow for IFR conditions to continue through sunrise as CIGS will likely fall off 100-200 ft or so with continued stabilization. As daytime ensues, low level saturation will be slow to erode, thus the trend upward from IFR will be slow at all sites expect probably ZZV. Most sites should go VFR Friday night. Fries .Outlook... Showers continue through much of the period with episodic restrictions. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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