Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 241843
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
243 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
Low pressure tracking along the East Coast should result in
periodic rain chances mainly east of I 79 early in the week.
Dry and warm weather is expected with mid week high pressure.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Latest satellite imagery showing the cloud shield has made
very little northward advancement. These clouds will slowly
creep northward this afternoon as the southeastern CONUS low
turns the corner and moves northeast. Rain chances will ramp
back up this afternoon across the Ridges as mid-level dry air
evacuates and moisture begins to advect back in from the Mid-
Atlantic. Away from the high terrain, a lack of organized ascent
will necessitate only slight rain chances through the night.
The upper low will track along the coast Tuesday, keeping us on
along the northwestern periphery of the system. Rain chances
will remain best confined to the higher elevations, but a weak
area of deformation could spill rain west, closer to Pittsburgh
during the day Tuesday.
Temperatures tonight will be above seasonal averages with
uniform cloud cover. Another west to east gradient of high
temperatures is expected Tuesday as cool air advects into the
eastern zones, under overcast skies.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --The upper-level low will finally move out of the region Wednesday
morning as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley.
This will bring tranquil weather back to the local area for
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Strong southerly flow through the mid-
levels will establish as heights build Wednesday. This and
relatively cloud-free skies will lead to strong warming, with
temperatures topping out around 15 degrees above average.
Highs in the low 80s should be common.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridging is progged to shift east early in the period as a trough
advances out of the Midwest, returning rain chances to the
forecast. Gradually increasing heights and SW upper flow are
expected through the weekend in response to a deepening wrn
CONUS trough. Embedded shortwaves in the SW flow should result
in periodic shower/thunderstorm chances from late week through
the weekend. Temperatures are expected to average 10-20 degrees
above seasonal levels.
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR will be predominate for the TAF period as easterly flow
continues to funnel moisture against the ridges. Light rain
chances will generally be confined to LBE and MGW. A fairly
tight pressure gradient will supports gusts near 20 kts this
The next chance for general restrictions is expected with mid
week low pressure.