Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250439 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1239 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather today. Unsettled but warm weather is expected for the second half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Ridging should maintain dry weather most of today. Low/slight chances for showers and thunderstorms should return toward evening for areas west of the PA/OH border as a weak shortwave approaches. After near or just above average lows, temperatures should recover to near 10 degrees above seasonal levels this afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A weak shortwave trough in the midst of an unstable atmosphere is progged to slowly pass through Thursday. Hence, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, especially in the afternoon and evening. Unstable conditions will continue into Friday as the broad ridge of high pressure strengthens and terrain driven diurnal thunderstorms occur. Very warm and humid conditions are expected through the period via southwest flow with temperatures forecast to be at least 10 degrees above average. Have used a blend of GFS, NAM, and WPC guidance for temperatures as a broad and anomalously strong ridge pattern holds across the region.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The ensemble members continue to be in good agreement that the aforementioned ridge enhances. Above average temperatures with humid conditions are expected. Saturday appears to be the warmest day of the period as the ridge axis is progged to be very near or directly over the forecast area while mid-level heights have reached their maxima. The overall broad ridge of anomalously high pressure over the Eastern US remains certain through the period and thus near WPC values for temperatures were used. Diurnal convection can be expected each day and so chance pops have been maintained. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR can be expected through Wednesday. There is a chance for degradation at zzv this eve as a disturbance supports scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Have addressed this with a "vicinity shower" mention given a lack of confidence in convection coverage. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Restriction chances in scattered showers and possible thunderstorms will continue into the weekend.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 07/15

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