Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS -- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KPBZ 302220 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
520 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016
-- Changed Discussion --A crossing cold front will bring another round of rain showers
tonight and cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --520pm update...quick update to more closely depict current state
of showers. Blended latest hires guidance with current radar
trends to compose a PoP forecast for the evening. Overnight
temperatures will also adjusted.
Showers continue east of Pittsburgh as warmer moist air ascends
ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain will be slow to
transition east but expect there to be a brief break this evening
before the front sweeps through tonight. Gusty winds can be
expected for an hour along and behind the front and the
relatively mild temperatures will quickly fall after frontal
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Gradually colder though the period as a mid level trough slowly
moves across eastern Canada. While 850mb temps will fall toward
-7C, low level flow will remain west to southwest into Friday
night, keeping bulk of lake effect snow showers well north of
I-80. A fairly dry column will keep any accumulations in the
ridges and north of I-80 light. Flow may turn a bit northwest
Saturday so have maintained low snow shower chances. Temperatures
will move to average or just below through the period.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry high pressure will end any snow showers saturday night into
Next fast moving shortwave looks to arrive with mostly rain showers
later Sunday into early Monday.
Models then continue to have trouble with timing of shortwaves and
cold air moving east into mid week, and a blend of models was used
for the latter part of the forecast.
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ceilings will continue to bounce this evening from VFR to IFR
ahead of a cold front that will cross later tonight. Until the
passage of the front, south-southeasterly winds will continue to
advect moisture into the south with light rain expected to persist
in MGW to LBE. Downsloping winds are intermittently lifting the
ceilings at these terminals, while most other ports remain MVFR or
A strong westerly windshift will likely occur between 00-06z with
gusts 15-25kts possible.
After a brief return to VFR overnight or early Thursday, cold air
advection could again return low ceilings to the area by Thursday
Periodic restrictions are possible through the weekend especially
N of I 70 with broad upper troughing and cold W-NW flow.