Area Forecast Discussion
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666 FXUS61 KPBZ 250520 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1220 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds this morning. Temperatures behind the front will fall back to near seasonal averages by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Have issued a quick update to further refine timing of frontal passage based on latest trends and rapid update model guidance. Overall, expect the line of showers/thunderstorms to gradually weaken over the course of the night but strong winds along and behind the boundary will be common with gusts between 25 mph and 45 mph. Previous discussion follows.. Showers and a some thunderstorms will accompany the cold front across the region later tonight and early Saturday. Convection, albeit weakening, in the strengthening wind field may still support some marginal, to low-end severe wind gusts. Gusty wind is also likely in the wake of the front with the pressure surge, and as cold advection reinforces the top of the mixing layer. Temperature will fall behind the front, so Saturday highs are expected very early. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper-level trough will swing through Saturday night, invigorating snow shower chances through pre-dawn Sunday. Westerly fetch and eroding moisture will limit snow production as the system begins to pull away. In general, less than an inch is expected across northern counties and into the mountains. Little to no accumulation is expected elsewhere. Zonal flow behind the trough will bring in high pressure at the surface. This will suppress any lingering snow showers Sunday morning and should begin to erode cloud cover. After falling steadily through Sunday morning, temperatures should moderate Sunday to near normal values. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad southwest flow aloft will continue until midweek, when the pattern amplifies slightly and a shallow trough develops over the northeast U.S. One weak piece of energy in the midlevels may provide some light precipitation on Monday. Deeper moisture flow and an approaching shortwave will provide better chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. Leaned heavily on Superblend guidance as models like the GFS and ECMWF are still struggling a bit with timing and strength details. A relatively quiet Thursday will be followed by a possible clipper on Friday. Above normal temperatures early in the week will be followed by normal or slightly below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday in the developing trough. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions can be expected through midnight, but deterioration will occur thereafter as a cold front spawns restrictions with showers and some thunderstorms. A llws mention was maintained as wind above the boundary layer will be strengthening with the eastward digging midwestern trough. Wind will veer to the w in the wake of the front. Sfc gusts of 25 to 30 will again be possible as MVFR stratocu and sct showers linger into the aftn. .OUTLOOK... Occasional restrictions are again possible as the unsettled weather pattern is maintained for the first half of the week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.