Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 302220 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 520 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A crossing cold front will bring another round of rain showers tonight and cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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520pm update...quick update to more closely depict current state of showers. Blended latest hires guidance with current radar trends to compose a PoP forecast for the evening. Overnight temperatures will also adjusted. Previous discussion... Showers continue east of Pittsburgh as warmer moist air ascends ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain will be slow to transition east but expect there to be a brief break this evening before the front sweeps through tonight. Gusty winds can be expected for an hour along and behind the front and the relatively mild temperatures will quickly fall after frontal passage.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Gradually colder though the period as a mid level trough slowly moves across eastern Canada. While 850mb temps will fall toward -7C, low level flow will remain west to southwest into Friday night, keeping bulk of lake effect snow showers well north of I-80. A fairly dry column will keep any accumulations in the ridges and north of I-80 light. Flow may turn a bit northwest Saturday so have maintained low snow shower chances. Temperatures will move to average or just below through the period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry high pressure will end any snow showers saturday night into early Sunday. Next fast moving shortwave looks to arrive with mostly rain showers later Sunday into early Monday. Models then continue to have trouble with timing of shortwaves and cold air moving east into mid week, and a blend of models was used for the latter part of the forecast. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ceilings will continue to bounce this evening from VFR to IFR ahead of a cold front that will cross later tonight. Until the passage of the front, south-southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into the south with light rain expected to persist in MGW to LBE. Downsloping winds are intermittently lifting the ceilings at these terminals, while most other ports remain MVFR or below A strong westerly windshift will likely occur between 00-06z with gusts 15-25kts possible. After a brief return to VFR overnight or early Thursday, cold air advection could again return low ceilings to the area by Thursday morning. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are possible through the weekend especially N of I 70 with broad upper troughing and cold W-NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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