Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 150646 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 246 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALIGNS WELL WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SO UPDATES DO NOT LOOK TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW.. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. TAX && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM. WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR TIMING PURPOSES. TAX && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIFR-MVFR FOG DEVELOPING BEFORE DAWN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ009. WV...NONE. && $$

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