Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 100813 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 413 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPLY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT GENERAL MOISTURE LEVELS...IT LOOKS RATHER DRY. HOWEVER...A CLOSER LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS SATURATION OCCURRING BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000FT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD POINT TOWARD A CU LAYER DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER OF MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT SOUNDINGS DON`T REALLY POINT TO THIS...SHOWING A PRETTY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE RIDGES WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE DEEPER AND ATMOSPHERIC FORCING WILL BE STRONGER DUE TO A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. WILL LEAVE MOST OF THE AREA DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIDGES. WITH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY. WILL GO A TOUCH BELOW GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT AND HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RISE IN ITS WAKE. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY. AT THIS TIME...MOST OF SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD. MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER INDIANA AND NW OHIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RACE EASTWARD AS EVENING APPROACHES. A COUPLE OF FACTORS WILL BE IMPORTANT ON WHERE THIS COMPLEX GOES. FIRST...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A HUGE DIP IN THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD...KEEPING THE 500MB PATTERN ZONAL. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. SECONDLY...MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. OBVIOUSLY...THIS ENTIRE SETUP IS STILL DAYS AWAY... SO MANY CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP UP ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS BEGIN TO SAG BOUNDARY THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZING. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE LONG TERM WILL END COOLER AND DRIER. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR CALM WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FROM THE ENTIRE GUIDANCE SUITE TO INSERT IFR FG AT HISTORICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF ZZV...MGW...HLG...AND FKL. KEPT THE REMAINING AIRPORTS AT MVFR OR BETTER DUE TO LACK OF A NEAR BY WATER SOURCE...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST. ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 13-15Z...WITH VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THINK THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL TERMINALS. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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