Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 031402 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1002 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... REMOVED CHANCES OF RAIN AROUND THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. SATTELITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE COULDS OVER EASTERN OH AND SOUTHWESDT PA, BUT SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS HEATING OCCURS. PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST THIS MRNG. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VIDIBILITY HAS IMPROVED EXCEPT FOR SOME RETRICTION AT KDUJ. CEILING ARE LIFTING. EXPECT MVFR TO PERSIST THRU 16Z. STRATOCU SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE WITH AN APPROACHING UPR TROF...THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS FOR ALL PORTS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 16-17Z AS MIXING INCREASES. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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