Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191902 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 302 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry and cool weather is forecast tonight. A cold front brings rain chances Monday afternoon and night, with another system later Tuesday bringing more precipitation mainly south of Pittsburgh. Near or below normal temperatures are expected.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Clouds are hanging tough across the region even as high pressure and upper ridging is building into the area. This is due to moisture becoming trapped underneath a subsidence inversion. It may take until the late evening for clouds to break to any significant degree, after which partly cloudy skies will continue. Temperatures will continue to run a touch below normal overnight. The next surface low and cold front will slide toward the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon. Have upped PoPs into the likely range over a wider area as model agreement increases. Somewhat enhanced precipitation rates may be seen over the central CWA due to a short period of midlevel frontogenesis and left exit region jet dynamics. Elected to hold off on thunder for now given weak instability expected, but dynamics may eventually justify it. Near normal high temperatures were just tweaked.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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The cold front will cross the region Monday night, with mainly rainfall continuing. A changeover to snow may occur on an isolated basis at the tail end of the precipitation, with no accumulation foreseen. Cold advection is not too strong behind this system and flow transitions back towards a more zonal pattern by Tuesday. This will allow another front with a weak wave to zip towards the region later Tuesday and Tuesday night. The models have trended a little further north with the surface wave and resulting precipitation, and have added some chance PoPs to areas mainly from Pittsburgh south. A bit better cold push follows, allowing perhaps some minor snow accumulation in our southeast ridges Tuesday night. Precipitation should cease by Wednesday with high pressure building in once again, with a return to below normal temperatures.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Dry weather will continue through Thursday. A cold early spring morning will be followed by moderating temperatures as southerly flow increases. A more amplified flow pattern emerges for the remainder of the extended period as upper low pressure strengthens to our west. Precipitation chances return Thursday night and Friday with the approach and passage of a warm front. A relative lull Friday night in the warm sector may be follow by a cold frontal passage next weekend. Above normal temperatures are expected from Friday on.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 17Z, IFR ceilings persist at FKL/DUJ, while ceilings at southern terminals have managed to rise to VFR. Improvement should continue from south to north through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Not sure which will happen first - cloud bases rising to VFR heights or clouds scattering out. Have stuck with the latter progression for now. FKL/DUJ should be the exception, with MVFR ceilings persisting overnight. All locations should be VFR by mid morning, with rain remaining west of the region through 18Z. Showers will reach PIT by the end of the extended portion of the TAF. Outlook... Restrictions are likely with the approach and passage of a Mon night cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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