Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270934 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 534 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND END THE SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES AND COOL WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC PROVINCE...WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR PROVINCES TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP A CU DECK IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR STRATOCU DECK HAS INDEED HELD ON TOUGH NORTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS KEPT MOST OF THAT AREA FOG-FREE. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS POINT IS DUJ WHERE SOME STRATUS HAS MANAGED TO FORM. SOUTH OF I-70...CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN SOMEWHAT AND SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED...MOST NOTABLY AT HLG. EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGH 13Z OR SO...WITH NORTHERN AREAS SEEING LESS FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS THAN THE SOUTH...WHERE OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES REMAIN POSSIBLE. FOG SHOULD LIFT/BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING...LEAVING A FAIRLY LOW CU DECK IN ITS WAKE. FKL/DUJ MAY HANG ON TO MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MORE GENERAL CLEARING BY SUNSET. HAVE HINTED AT MORE WIDESPREAD FOG AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAFS IN MANY AREAS...AS CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW MORE AREAS TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY SINK BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. CL OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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