Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251130 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 730 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR MORNING UPDATE PREVIOUS... STRENGTHENING EASTERN RIDGE AND BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. BY LATE IN THE DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRY AND WARM...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RISE. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE SOUTHERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY...WAITING ON A PUSH FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDE SCHC/CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTH WILL END AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN BY THURSDAY MORNING. COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS TIME...MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CREATE A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HAVE DECIDED CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THE BEST APPROACH AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. ESE WIND WILL REMAIN UNDER 5KTS. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREATE VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS WED...HOWEVER AS OF NOW THEY ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD. && .EQUIPMENT... WHEELING ASOS IS OUT OF SERVICE WHICH HAS AN EFFECT ON THE DAILY CLIMATE. NO ETA ON WHEN IT WILL RETURN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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