Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190528 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 128 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT AS LOWERING INVERSION LEVELS ARE BRINGING AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR 4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR PRECIPITATION. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST...THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD ON MEANING PLENTY OF CLOUD AND CHILLY TEMPS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD BEGIN TO ENJOY THE DECREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOWERING INVERSION WL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SHWRS AS THE NGT PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE...COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN MAY SPPRT A RISING CIG BASE. MVFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH STRATOCU GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY LATE DAY. .AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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