Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281725 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 125 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE RIDGES AND CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHEAST. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH BUT AS FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON UNCHANGED IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WITH A BASICALLY DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPS CLOSE TO MODEL MOS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON RIPPLES OF ENERGY RIDING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED ISOLATED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY UNDER RIDGING. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS BY AFTERNOON...SO INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION FOR PIT IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAF. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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