Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271742 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 142 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Areas of crossing low pressure will result in periodic shower chances through early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Made updates based on radar and hi-res model trends. Any convective development this afternoon will be mainly confined to areas south of the Mason-Dixon line, with warm air aloft capping off activity to the north. This will keep any threat of strong to borderline severe storms south of the WV/PA border as well. Expecting mainly dry weather elsewhere as mid-level ridging develops aloft. Lingering cloud cover south of I-80 has limited the temperature rise this morning, and so have shaved a couple degrees off of afternoon highs for much of the CWA, with values between 70 and 75 for most areas outside the ridges. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave crossing the upper Midwest and Great Lakes ahead of an approaching surface low is forecast to increase shower/thunderstorm chances again on Sunday. The low`s associated cold front should support further showers/storms into the night, with improvement on Monday as high pressure ridging rapidly slides across the area. Temperatures generally will remain just above the seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad upper troughing is progged across the NE CONUS and Great Lakes region through the period. Shortwaves rotating through the trough will provide occasional shower chances through mid week until surface high pressure builds under the trough by late week. Temperatures should average near to a few degrees below seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IFR ceilings remain across the PIT/AGC/LBE corridor as of 17Z, but the lower clouds are expected to eventually mix out, allowing for a return to VFR conditions. Scattered showers are beginning to develop across southeastern Ohio and northern West Virginia, and chose to continue a VCTS mention at MGW. Did not have enough confidence to go as far north as ZZV with a precipitation mention. Clouds will scatter out late this afternoon and evening, but restrictions are expected to develop again late tonight at all other terminals other than DUJ. While much of the model guidance indicates IFR ceilings/visibilities, have decided to only trend conditions to low MVFR at most sites. With potential for MGW to receive thunderstorms this afternoon, decided to go IFR there with extra low level moisture available. Terminals should return to VFR conditions late Sunday morning before precipitation begins to enter the forecast area. .Outlook... Rain and restriction potential will continue with a cold front Sunday night. Fronts Tuesday and Wednesday will allow for additional intermittent restrictions. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.