Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 020218 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1018 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE LARGELY BASED OFF PERSISTENCE...WITH A BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN INDIANA WHICH WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY BUT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY KEEP DEVELOPMENT CAPPED OFF. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCES AREAWIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THURSDAY WILL BE NO DIFFERENT AS RIDGING REMAINS PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE FORECAST LARGELY BASED OFF OF BEST PERFORMING BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN RECENTLY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANY REMAINING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND PREDAWN FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED CONVECTION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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