Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251440 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 940 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINING IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGTH SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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COLD FRONT WITH A THIN BNAD OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM KDUJ TO KBVI MID MORNING WITH BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS THE DAY GOES ON. ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH INOT THE RIDGES WITH A PASSING FLURRY ELSEWHERE. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS LOOK IN LINE. COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN... TAX && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED. TAX && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH THE BIGGEST IMPACT BEING MVFR CIGS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF VISIBILITY BEING REDUCED TO TWO TO THREE MILES BRIEFLY DURING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW VFR LEVELS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS ONLY ABOUT 60% AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT IS RIGHT AROUND 3KFT AND BELOW. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AREA WIDE WITH A LATE THURSDAY DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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