Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201552 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1152 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure and a crossing cold front will generate more rain later today and into Friday. Much cooler weather will follow for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Noon update issued to include a flash flood watch for the area. High precipitable water values, slowly crossing low pressure and associated ascent should result in enough flood potential for a watch. An inch and half to 3 inches is expected, with locally higher amounts possible where training occurs. Otherwise, a warm front should continue to lift north across the region today as developing low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley. Shower and thunderstorm chances should increase through the day with increasing shortwave support as a deepening upper trough advances out of the Midwest. Increasing shear should result in a severe thunderstorm potential late this afternoon and evening, and the SPC slight risk appears reasonable. The main threat expected is damaging winds, though an isolated tornado is also possible. The amount of available instability is expected to be the main limiting factor. Instability should wane tonight, though widespread showers should continue as the surface low crosses the area. Temperatures should continue to average 10 to 20 degrees above the seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers are expected to continue Friday as the surface low and it`s associated cold front slowly moves east of the area. The upper trough is progged to continue it`s slow approach Friday, with the axis crossing Friday evening. Cold advection in northwest flow, and the proximaty of the upper low/trough should keep shower chances continuing Saturday for portions of the area. A few locations in the higher terrain could see a few snow showers mix in at times. Building high pressure and lowering inversion heights should result in rapidly decreasing POPs by Saturday evening. Much cooler temperatures are expected, with readings near or several degrees below the seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry, but seasonably cool conditions will return Sunday as warmer air slowly works back into the area. Ensemble solutions continue to push a weak front through the area sometime on Monday, which may provide another risk for scattered showers. High pressure builds in for the remainder of the long term. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... General VFR can be expected into the afternoon with exception for ZZV where encroaching stratus with a sfc trough looks to be problematic. Conditions will deteriorate at other terminals from the south late this afternoon and into the evening as showers and thunderstorms develop with approaching low pressure. Expect eventual IFR to persist through Friday morning as rainfall gives wary to stratus in the wake of that exiting systems cold front. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Periodic restrictions are expected into Sunday as an upper trough crosses the area. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Flash Flood Watch from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday morning FOR MDZ001. OH...Flash Flood Watch from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday morning FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...Flash Flood Watch from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday morning FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...Flash Flood Watch from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday morning FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
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