Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260119 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 919 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE AS HIGH PRES WL CONT TO SUPPRESS PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGING/WARMTH ALOFT WL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO TRANSITION EAST OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK DYNAMICS...SO EXPECT THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF HEATING. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER THIS TIME...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE SPEED OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT BRINGING A TROUGH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE MSTR PROFILE WL IMPROVE AS HIGH PRES REORIENTS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND GENERATES A BTR SLY FLOW COMPONENT. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED...BUT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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