Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 150124 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 924 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A crossing front is expected to bring showers and gusty wind on Sunday afternoon. Much cooler weather will start the new week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The only changes needed for the late eve update involved adjustments to clouds cover given encroachment of some cirrus and altocu, as well as low stratus near DUJ. Dry weather will persist through early Sunday as high pressure slides eastward. A strong trough advancing out of the Midwest is progged to drive a cold front across the area Sunday afternoon, with showers likely. Mentioned just a slight chance of thunderstorms with limited instability. Models continue to vary a bit on frontal timing, so have generally persisted with an overall later passage as per a compromise of deterministic trends. Gusty wind is also expected with the front and possibly with any of the shallow convection. Given the strength of the wind field, have introduced a "damaging gust" potential to the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Cool NW flow and a crossing upper trough should maintain shower chances mainly N of PIT Monday. Patchy frost is possible Monday night under building high pressure, but uncertainty due to lingering stratocu and the end of the growing season preclude a forecast mention. Early week temperature is forecast 5-10 degrees below average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cool NW flow and a crossing upper trough should maintain shower chances mainly N of PIT Monday. Patchy frost is possible Monday night under building high pressure, but uncertainty due to lingering stratocu and the end of the growing season preclude a forecast mention. Early week temperature is forecast 5-10 degrees below average. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A large area of high pressure across much of the Ern CONUS should maintain dry weather and moderating temperature through the week. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Eroding high pressure will maintain VFR tonight, but off-surface wind will be on the increase with the advance of a cold front out of the midwest; so low level wind shear development is likely in the predawn of Sunday. Expect condition deterioration to MVFR with the encroachment and passage of the cold front on Sunday afternoon and evening. Local gusts of 35 to 45 kt are possible with showers and fropa. .Outlook... Restrictions, primarily due to MVFR stratocu, will be possible into Monday as cold advection intensifies in the wake of the front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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