Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270752 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 352 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEDNESDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 1245AM UPDATE MAINLY REMOVED POPS EXCEPT FOR TUCKER COUNTY...AS WELL AS MAKING ADJUSTMENTS FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WITH THE COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS CURRENTLY A 25 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN FRANKLIN AND MORGANTOWN. DRY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVG WITH TEMPS UPDATED USING THE LATEST CONSENSUS MOS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY WEDNESDAY AND COOL ADVECTION SHOULD LIMIT TEMP RECOVERY TO NR THE SEASONAL AVGS. LARGE DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST ACROSS OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE THURSDAY FORECAST...WITH TODAY`S FRONT RETURNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. OPTED TO KEEP POPS GENERAL WITH A BROAD BLEND OF MODELS APPLIED. SLOWER TIMING ON THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN WAS APPLIED...BUT A LOT OF DETAILS STILL TO BE DETERMINED AS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND WEAKENS ON APPROACH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN TRACK...SO OPTED TO ADJUST INHERITED POPS BY LEANING LARGELY ON LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WITH SLIGHTLY MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE GEFS. THIS RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO CONSTRUCTED USING A BLEND OF THE GEFS/SUPERBLEND...WITH EC ENSEMBLE DATA INCORPORATED AS WELL AS THE ECS TEMPERATURES SEEMED MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE PROJECTED HEIGHTS/ANOMALIES. IF MODELS TREND FARTHER SOUTH MOST LOCATIONS MAY END UP STAYING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY IN GENERAL. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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