Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271245 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 745 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. A COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL FOLLOW.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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POST DAWN UPDATED FEATURED ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ALNG THE ERN PERIMETER OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA WHERE PERSISTENT DEFORMATION BAND HAS DRIFTED SUFFICIENTLY WWD TO ADD SOME ACCUMULATION...ALBEIT A QUICK INCH TO THE HIGHER RIDGES AND AREAS ARND DUBOIS. PREVIOUS... SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER. POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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