Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271417 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT INTO EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT NOT A MAJOR CHANGE. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE RIDGES MAY GIVE A QUICK COATING EARLY BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS INTO REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT. GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN TAF SITES LATE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT MVFR AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION STRATO-CU WILL CONTINUE WITH STRAY SNOW SHOWERS AT PORTS THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KTS. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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