Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231739 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1239 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWESTERN STATES WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON CHRISTMAS DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY UNTIL 11 AM. OBS/WEBCAMS SHOWING VERY LOW VISIBILITIES...AND THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE GIVEN THE LIKELY HEAVY HOLIDAY TRAFFIC ON I-68 TODAY. OTHERWISE...TRIMMED BACK MORNING POPS AS COVERAGE DECREASES IN THE ADVANCING WARM SECTOR. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS OTHERWISE. CL && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO ADVN FM THE CNTRL CONUS AS ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FM THE GULF COAST INTO THE GT LKS TUE GT INTO WED GT. RAIN CHCS WL INCR THRU THE PD AS DEEP MSTR AND LIFT ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THIS SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A WED EVE/GT PASSAGE. COLD ADVCTN WL ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO A FEW SNW SHWRS LT WED GT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...THOUGH LTD MSTR...LWRG TEMP INVERSIONS...AND MARGINAL SFC AIR TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS TO A MINIMUM. IN ADDN...GUSTY SFC WNDS ARE EXP WITH A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AFT FROPA. WL MAINTAIN A MNTN OF THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR FOR ANY PSBL ADVYS. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY BLD IN THU GT AND FRI WITH DRY WEA. TEMPS SHOULD AVG WELL ABV SEASONAL AVGS UNTIL THE WED GT FROPA RTNS READINGS TO MORE SEASONAL LVLS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RELATIVELY POOR CONSENSUS WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE OPTED TO WEIGH HEAVILY ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. IN ANY CASE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND ON SATURDAY UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EVEN IF THE FASTER OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY. IF THE OVERALL CONSENSUS TRENDS TOWARDS THE SLOWER EC...TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE INCREASED SEVERAL DEGREES FROM CURRENT FORECAST VALUES. IN ADDITION TO TIMING...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS. THE EC FAVORS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A SOUTHERLY TRACK ...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH SMALLER WINDOW OF ACTIVE WEATHER/PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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CIGS LIFTING AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS AREA. MOST TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR A TIME AT LEAST...SAVE FOR PERHAPS FKL. RAIN RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SURFACE LOW GETS ORGANIZED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...DROPPING CIG/VIS INTO MVFR AND THEN IFR CATEGORY AFTER 07Z OR SO. HAVE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR AROUND 14/15Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH SWEEPS THROUGH AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE PIT 30 HOUR TAF...INSERTED VCTS AFTER 24/21Z WITH SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY PERHAPS INDUCING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE.
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&& $$

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