Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281756 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 156 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WITH NOON UPDATE...ONLY NECESSARY CHANGE IS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE SIMPLY PICKING UP MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE DAY. BROAD AND DRY HIGH PRES WL CONT TO SUPPRESS PCPN AND WL CONT TO MAINTAIN TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS FOR THE NR TERM PD. NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECAST PERSISTENCE RMNS PRUDENT DESPITE MDL INDICATIONS OF INCRSD SHRTWV ACTIVITY DURING THE 1ST HALF OF THE WEEK. MSTR PAUCITY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...LACK OF LIFT...AND POOR SPPRTG WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALL SPPRT NO MORE A SLIGHT PCPN CHC...MAINLY WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE DISTURBANCES ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM FORECAST WAS CONTD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MDLS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTIONS OF AN EWD DVLPG HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF/STRONG CDFNT LATE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...NWD TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SCENARIO OF DISRUPTED DYNAMICS AS THE SYSTEMS CROSSES THE UPR OHIO REGION. DESPITE THIS SYSTEM BEING THE NXT BEST CHC FOR PCPN...POPS WL RMN IN THE CHC CATEGORY UNTIL FURTHER MATURATION OCCURS. CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPS IS HIGHER...BUT THE COLD SURGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND RAPID MODERATION BACK TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS IS ANTICIPATED AFTR NXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECAST SAME AS IT HAS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR-LIFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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