Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 152327 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 727 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Shower areas today will give way to a dry and warm Wednesday. Rain is likely with a Thursday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A weak short wave has trekked across the northern CWA late this afternoon, allowing for some weak shower activity to first develop then enhance itself along the leading edge of the eastward spreading cold pool it has formed. The HRRR has a largely decent handle on this, and it allows it to track ESE over the next 2-4 hours before dissipating. This may bring a shower or two across the northern reaches of the Pittsburgh area, however the majority of the shower activity will remain north of the turnpike. Elsewhere, the lake breeze off of Lake Erie is generating a second line of showers and it pushes inland. This activity will too affect the I-80 corridor and northward over the next 2-4 hours. Any other activity remains very isolated and ill- developed. With little upstream convective blow off and cumulus dissipation after peak heating, a clear night looks to be in store. Elevated surface dewpoints and calm conditions will thus result in fog, particularly in the lower spots overnight toward sunrise. Fries && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... After the passage of today`s wave, heights will briefly build Wednesday, allowing a dry forecast to carry through much of Wednesday. Increasing southwesterly flow late Wednesday night into early Thursday will lift a warm front into the area. Will keep the area dry through the pre-dawn Thursday, but do bring some chance PoPs in for near the Thursday morning rush hour. The warm front will lift north of the area Thursday afternoon, with mostly scattered showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector. The deep parent low lifting north through the Great Lakes will finally swing a cold front into our western zones late Thursday night into Friday morning. While timing differences do exist, it looks as though the broad consensus across model guidance is for high PoPs near or after 00z Friday with the front. If this timing holds, it is not very favorable for strong convection along the front to make it deep into our forecast area. For this reason, the Day 3 marginal risk outlines just our Ohio counties, which seems prudent. Temperatures through the period will remain near average. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Any lingering rain showers will taper down by Saturday as high pressure briefly builds in. A secondary wave Saturday night could bring additional rain chances, but timing will be unfavorable for much else. Broad high pressure will then build into the region for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will remain near average, building into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through the evening, though an isolated shower is possible with a weak crossing sfc trough. Patchy late night/early mrng MVFR fog is possible, with IFR likely for valley ports. VFR with diurnal CU is expected Wed under weak ridging. .Outlook... Widespread restriction potential returns with a Thu/Fri cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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