Area Forecast Discussion
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872 FXUS61 KPBZ 162338 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 638 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will bring warmer temperatures today, with increasing rain chances tonight and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Update to freshen up PoP grids based on double-band of showers currently lifting northeastward across the CWA. The main event will occur after midnight, as a strong push of isentropic lift arrives with the warm front, bringing more widespread rain. Temperatures will drop initially, thanks to wetbulbing, but a rise is indicated overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rain will continue Tuesday as a surface low tracks northeast over the Great Lakes, another shortwave passes, and the left exit region of the jet core moves over the forecast area. Temperatures are forecast to range 20-25 degrees above normal for this time of year /climatologically this is the coldest week of the year/ as we stay in the warm sector and strong warm air advection continues. The parent upper trough will cross the region Wednesday with showers ending and slightly cooler temperatures. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Eastern CONUS ridge will give dry and mild conditions Thursday. Deterministic models differ on strong shortwave moving toward the Ohio valley for Friday, as well as a deepening full latitude mid level trough moving east toward the weekend. A modified model blend was used from Friday onward to smooth POPs and temperatures and for surrounding office coordination. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High confidence remains that current VFR/MVFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR conditions or worse overnight through Tuesday as an area of low pressure spreads rain and lowers ceilings across all terminals. Enhancing low level flow may promote the need to include LLWS on Tuesday. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely through Wednesday with crossing low pressure. Thereafter, expect general VFR through early Friday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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