Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211723 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 123 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the weekend. Rain chances return early next week with low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Some minimal changes were made with the noon forecast, primarily to drop highs a degree or two considering cirrus is a little thicker than expected. Still, temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Temperatures will continue to be on the rise as upper ridge axis moves east. Sunday should be the warmest day of the weekend, with temperatures dropping off a degree or two by Monday. Monday`s forecast still remains uncertain as there is noticeable model differences in the timing of precipitation. Much of the differences have to do with what will ultimately happen at 500mbs Sunday night and Monday. Operational models want to develop a cutoff low over the Gulf Coast states late Sunday night, which not only slows the eastward progression of the main trough axis, but also limits the amount of deep moisture that is streaming northward ahead of the trough. Ensembles are not developing the cutoff low over the south and thus are faster and show greater QPF arriving sooner. Will lean toward the ensemble forecast, which will keep PoPs in on Monday. Have slowed just a bit from previous forecast to account for the discrepancies, but ensembles have not wavered from their upper level solution over the last several runs. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Have continued with high pops Monday night and Tuesday. If ensemble data is correct, area could see a much needed soaking during this time period. A reinforcing wave Wednesday will bring the chance for another round of showers. Temperatures will drop to normal by Tuesday and below normal on Wednesday. Area should dry out after midweek, with temperatures remaining below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions will continue into Sunday afternoon, with light winds. Only cirrus clouds are foreseen through the period. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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