Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230010 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 810 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Decreasing shower chances are expected through Monday as upper level low pressure exits. Warmer temperatures are expected through the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... An upper level low across was across northeast WV based on the latest water vapor and meso analysis. This should continue to result in scattered to numerous showers this evening. The showers are expected to gradually diminish later tonight as the upper low begins to move SE. Patchy fog is possible where rain fell earlier, though slowly diminishing cloud cover and winds around 5 kt could limit this to sheltered locations. Lows should be near seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper trough will gradually lift to the east, through late Tuesday, being replaced by building high pressure. Residual moisture and support from a shortwave rotating along the western edge of the trough will bring the regeneration of showers and some thunderstorms Monday afternoon, much like today. Generally confined this to counties east of I-79. With more sunshine anticipated west of I-79, near season temperatures were forecast. By Monday night, high pressure will be building overhead, giving way to mostly clear skies and warming temperatures, under southwesterly flow through, early Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to develop with general west-southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend approaches. With uncertainty in timing of individual shortwaves embedded within the flow, have stayed close to climo POPs, which is similar to a blend of model guidance. With building heights and warm advection, anticipate above average temperatures through the start of next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper low across the region should continue to bring scattered showers early this evening. Any MVFR conditions in heavier showers now look to be away from ports. Patchy IFR is expected in fog overnight with lingering low level moisture, mainly where more significant showers fell sunday afternoon. VFR should return after 13z monday with diurnal cumulus. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Restrictions are possible by late week with an approaching trough. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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