Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250935 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 535 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Light rain this morning will decrease through the day as East Coast low pressure pulls away. Dry weather is expected later tonight and into Thursday under high pressure, with increasingly warm temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 530 AM...updated PoPs for latest trends. Light rain has bloomed in area of convergence as noted below. Have likely PoPs tracking this best support north out of the CWA over the next few hours, after which time focus will return to the ridges in easterly flow. Minor changes to several other fields, such as sky cover and hourly T/Td. Previous discussion... Upper level low pressure continues to spin up the Atlantic seaboard today. Easterly flow along the periphery of this system will continue to pump Atlantic moisture mainly into the ridges for most of the day, and as such have continued with the higher PoPs in the east. Early on though, models have been consistent in showing a short period of low- level convergence that should generate at least scattered showers over even the western CWA this morning. Have thus extended chance values all the way to ZZV. This support breaks down by midday, with the continued ridge focus thereafter. Southeast Ohio will see the most sun today on the outer edge of the cloud shield. Temperatures will be above normal here, and closer to climatology further east. The upper low takes on more of a northeastward component this afternoon and tonight in response to increased ridging over the Ohio Valley. This will lead to a slow decrease in rain chances, with the last straggling showers moving east overnight. Despite decreasing clouds, temperatures will remain above normal with a lack of cold advection. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Quiet weather is anticipated for Wednesday and Wednesday night with surface high pressure and the passage of a mid-level ridge. Rising heights and flow turning southwest point to rising temperatures, with all locations rising well above normal, many reaching or exceeding 80 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Even warmer temperatures are expected Thursday afternoon as strong southwest flow should efficiently mix down +18C 850 mb temperatures to get many locations into the mid 80s. However, clouds will be on the increase as a shortwave trough rotates from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, pushing a boundary towards the area. Best support for precipitation will lies from Pittsburgh on northwest, where likely PoPs were maintained. Instability and shear levels point to a few strong storms, but not expecting a widespread severe threat at this time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure in broad SW flow aloft may provide a relatively dry Friday with cooler but still above-normal temperatures. Rain chances increase into the weekend as a trough deepens over the Rockies and the Plains, with embedded shortwaves providing some rounds of rainfall. Rising heights will lead to a slow warmup back into the 80s by Sunday. The trough may eject Sunday night/Monday and push a fairly strong cold front our way by Monday. With a negative-tilted trough and and moist SW flow, we will need to monitor the severe risk from this system over the next several days. Dry and cooler weather follows this system. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions through most of the day as mid-deck shield will continue to blanket the region. The exception will be at DUJ, which will see lower moisture spill over the ridges in easterly flow, causing a reduction to MVFR as dawn approaches. LBE will also see MVFR cigs by late morning. Models are indicating another round of light showers crossing the area late tonight and during the morning hours. Light easterly winds will increase later this morning, with gusts of 20 to 25kts possible. By late in the forecast period, all ports are expected to see MVFR restrictions, as the continued easterly flow pushes low- level moisture further west. .Outlook... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with late week low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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