Area Forecast Discussion
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114 FXUS61 KPBZ 191049 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 649 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING AND USHER IN SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER AREAS EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT...BEST DEFINED VIA DEWPOINT DIFFERENTIAL...ADVANCES ACROSS OHIO. UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE INITIALLY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS IN THE FORM OF STRATOUCU ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS COLD ADVECTION ENSUES IN EARNEST THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR TERM TEMP ADJUSTMENTS WERE MINIMAL...BUT BASED ON NWS COLLABORATION AND A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES ARE PROJECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT TWEAKS WERE BASED ON THE LATEST ADJUSTED MET AND GFS MOS TRENDS. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WERE IN THE FORM OF PRECIP PROBABILITY ADDITIONS...ALBEIT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE NUMBERS...AS GFS AND NAM CONT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER AREAS SOUTH OF I 80 WITH A RAPIDLY CROSSING SHORTWAVE IN THE PREDAWN OF THURSDAY. PROGGED MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT INDICATE A SATURATED COLUMN...HENCE ANY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EXCEED THE SPRINKLE CATEGORY. MINIMAL POP NUMBERS WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW...BUT WERE NOT EXTENDED TO THE MOISTURE STARVED REINFORCING FRONT PROJECTED FOR FRIDAY ENCROACHMENT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING UNDER A DEPARTING BROAD UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. A SLOWLY ADVANCING PLAINS AND MIDWEST TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THAT APPROACHING TROUGH...SO WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS USING DOWNWARD TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY USING WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DRY ADVECTION AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING CEILING HEIGHTS BY MID MORNING WITH AN EVENTUAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE CLOUD DECK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL VFR COOL AIR STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE.
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&& $$ 15/07

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