Area Forecast Discussion
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167 FXUS61 KPBZ 251444 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1044 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A couple of crossing disturbances have returned rain chances to the Upper Ohio Valley Region for this morning, and again late this afternoon and evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The leading short wave trough has nearly cleared the eastern flank of the area with abundant low level moisture remaining in its wake. This has allowed for fairly pervasive stratus development this morning, however diurnal turbulent mixing is starting to break some of this up, and it is likely to continue to do so going into the afternoon. As 850 mb temperatures surge toward 19C, mixing depth increases, and dewpoints continue an uptick into the 70s, heat index values will thus rise toward 95-100 this afternoon. Going into the evening, shear will increase, especially over the northwestern portions of the area with helicity values running up toward 150 m2/s2. This will occur as the trailing section of weak mid-level short wave edges through the norther flange of the area. While the vast majority of large scale lift will be transiting to our north, this may be enough to kick off a thunderstorm with a damaging wind gust or tornado late this evening and early tonight. This was added to the HWO. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Precipitation chances are projected to wane on Friday as surface high pressure builds in the wake of a weak front. Have persisted with a dry forecast through Saturday as per the latest, and consistent deterministic trends. Warm weather will continue as zonal flow across the northern ridge periphery shunts warm air across the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Little change in pattern is indicated through the first half of next week with the southern U.S. upper high maintaining grip, but with tropical system encroachment toward the Southeastern Coast. Shortwaves with the zonal flow over the immediate area would support periodic, and diurnally-supported precip chances for the long term. Low-confidence slight to chance POPs were maintained for that eventuality as per the latest Superblend guidance. Warm temperature can be expected given the lack of any significant airmass alteration. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers and a few thunderstorms will encroach from the west during the early portions of the forecast. Expect coverage and intensity to continue to decrease overnight, so have only included restrictions in a tempo group. Shortwave that has sparked the activity will clear the area quickly this morning. Expect a quick return to vfr conditions after sunrise. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Periodic restriction chances should persist through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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