Area Forecast Discussion
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286 FXUS61 KPBZ 272052 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 452 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cool temperatures are expected tonight under high pressure. Wednesday looks dry, before showers, storms, and warmer temperatures return Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Mid-level trough axis has moved east of the region, and with it goes the scattered showers. Cannot rule out another isolated shower near DUJ over the next hour or two, but otherwise precipitation is done, and have adjusted PoPs to this. A decreasing trend in cloud cover will commence, with mostly clear skies expected shortly after sunset as daytime heating is lost. Maintained low temperatures for now, with many locations expected to fall into the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging will build over the region on Wednesday and temperature will recover to near average with insolation and increased warm advection. Cloud coverage will increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching shortwave in increasingly zonal flow. The mid-level disturbance will be over the Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon which will likely lead to the development of showers and storms. Have included PoPs on Thursday, generally north of PIT, with likely PoPs over the far north. Temperatures on Thursday will continue to trend up, and winds will be gusty out of the southwest as the pressure gradient tightens. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models are in general agreement in development of a Mississippi Valley to Eastern CONUS trough this weekend, although actual amplitude and shortwaves-in-flow continue detail and timing discrepancies. The POPS and temperature forecasts are thus close to climo as per a blend of guidance. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR will predominate. A crossing shortwave trough will support scattered afternoon showers mainly N of PIT. Otherwise, cumulus and gusty west wind will diminish as evening temperature falls below convective thresholds. .OUTLOOK... Restriction chances will increase during the latter half of the week with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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