Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270122 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 922 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AS THE FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT HAS LARGELY BEEN USED UP BY CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND THE COLD POOL FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS COVERED MUCH OF THE REAL ESTATE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...BUT THESE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NET RESULT FOR THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. THESE WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TO A LARGE DEGREE. SECONDARILY...DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT MANAGED TO TREND DOWNWARD BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH AT ALL...THIS WILL ALSO WORK TO INHIBIT TEMPERATURE FALLS OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BREAK UP ON MONDAY AS RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES SEEM LIKELY TO HANG AROUND THE RIDGES...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL LEAVE A LOCALIZED MAXIMUM OF INSTABILITY THERE BY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE THE RESULT DURING THE PRIME HEATING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WARM...BUT SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID...DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CANNOT RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL AS RISING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 BOTH DAYS...WITH HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE SLIGHTLY DELAYED TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEEK WITH DRIER AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE RIDGES BY THURSDAY EVENING. WENT WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR FROPA. LESS HUMID WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. TERMINALS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS BY PRE-DAWN WHILE FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS THESE SITES. CATEGORIES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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