Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281347 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 947 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level low pressure system will bring rain to our region for the second half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Changes for the late morning were primarily cosmetic with tweaks to cloud cover and weather-wording. Upper low pressure will continue to dig off the Great Lakes through the near term. Convective temperature will thus be falling and shower chances increasing today. Dry layers within the atmospheric column will provide initial inhibition. Overnight temperature will fall below convective thresholds, but shortwave impulse/occluded front is progged to rotate around the parent-low and maintain shower chances for the night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The aforementioned low is forecast to briefly stall over the Middle Ohio River Valley on Thursday, before lifting northward and filling once again through the week. The concern for the period is late Thursday when an Atlantic moisture tap is forecast to stream across areas generally along and north of the PA turnpike, and deepen the overall moisture supply in the column. Currently-progged rain-supporting dynamics are progged for that period, but are limited given the lack of convergence/mid level frontogenetical forcing in this mature stage of the low. The better probability for heavy rain off the immediate eastern upslope areas should thus be convection based and instability is not impressive. The bottom line is no flash flood watch until precursor rainfall tonight at least defines a better threat area in conjunction with moisture convergence into the occluded frontal zone. As the Atlantic moisture tap in interrupted by Friday, the sustained rainfall threat will be alleviated with more scattered convection providing the rain chances.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The low is forecast to lift northward and fill through the weekend with dry flow returning and diminishing rain chances for the region, and supporting seasonably warm temperature.
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&& .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR will predominate today, but deterioration can be expected tonight as rain chances increase under the encroaching upper low. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Periodic restrictions can be expected into the weekend as the upper level low lingers over the region.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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