Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221550 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATE MRNG UPDT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FREEZING RAIN ADVY ANOTHER HOUR FOR PTNS OF THE AREA WHERE TEMPS ARE NR FREEZING. PREVIOUS DISC...A WK SHRTWV ACRS OH WL CONT TO ADVN EWD TDA. SFC TEMPS WL BE RISING AS WRM ADVCTN CONTS...THOUGH A MRNG SFC INVERSION WL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN CHCS ACRS OH INTO THE PANHANDLE OF WV AND WRN PA. ONLY EXPG TRACE AMTS OF ICE...AND WL CONT THE FREEZING RAIN ADVY AS IS TO COVER ANY TRAVEL HAZARDS. THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT WL QUICKLY END AS TEMPS RISE. THE SHRTWV WL EXIT BY LT AFT...THOUGH ANOTHER WK WAVE WL CROSS THE RGN TNGT. BEST MOISTURE AND SPPRT FOR PCPN IS PROGGED N OF PIT WHERE CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO ARND 50 S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENS AS JET CORE TRANSITIONS BEYOND THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS THE REGION NOW RESIDES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO STREAM CLOUDS INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID- MORNING. AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS AND HAVE NOW INCLUDED PIT/BVI/HLG AS WELL. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED. TAX OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ040-041-049- 050-059-069. PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007>009-015-016. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ013-014- 020>022-029. WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ001>004.
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