Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241446 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 946 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN OHIO WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. FRONT WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW. WINDS AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO GUST TOWARD 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING ALLOWING TAPPING OF LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60KTS AROUND 3-4K FEET. NOT ALL OF THIS WILL REACH SURFACE AND BEST JET STAYS WEST TOWARD OHIO...SO CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH MUCH COOLER AIR WRAPPING IN UNDERNEATH STRONG LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA. ONLY LIMITED CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPS AND POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES. COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION. ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT. TAX && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING. FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT. TAX && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH BE WIND GUSTS. S-SW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 40KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN SITES BUT WILL NOT MAKE MENTION OF THIS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE. CITY FORECAST RECORD/YEAR PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL 71 69/1931 MORGANTOWN 74 72/1979 ZANESVILLE 65 70/2001 NEW PHILADELPHIA 65 71/1979 WHEELING 71 70/2001 DUBOIS 67 61/1979 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001. OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012- 021>023-041. && $$

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