Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 010604 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 104 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and seasonally cool temperatures across the area through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Showers and gusty winds associated with a crossing cold front should continue to exit the area tonight. After a brief period of clearing, clouds should return with cold advection and upper troughing as a closed upper low moves across Ontario. Lows should average a few degrees above average. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Gradually colder though the period as a mid level trough slowly moves across eastern Canada. While 850mb temps will fall toward -7C, low level flow will remain west to southwest into Friday night, keeping bulk of lake effect snow showers well north of I-80. A fairly dry column will keep any accumulations in the ridges and north of I-80 light. Flow may turn a bit northwest Saturday so have maintained low snow shower chances. Temperatures will move to average or just below through the period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry high pressure will end any snow showers saturday night into early Sunday. Next fast moving shortwave looks to arrive with mostly rain showers later Sunday into early Monday. Models then continue to have trouble with timing of shortwaves and cold air moving east into mid week, and a blend of models was used for the latter part of the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold front is now east of the ridges with west winds gusty at times to 25 KTs into the afternoon in tight pressure gradient under low pressure across the Great Lakes. Brief window of VFR at most ports until 08-09Z when MVFR CIGs in cold advection will return and remain into mid afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Brief restrictions are possible in showers through the weekend especially N of I 70 with broad upper troughing and cold W-NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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