Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 310438 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1238 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GIVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S LOWS FROM UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY INDICATING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE AT THIS POINT...BUT CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS LITTLE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF...HARD TO GO HIGH WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE BROUGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. CONSIDERING PREVIOUS FORECAST NOTED TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION...HAVE ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES POPS AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY GOING BETWEEN LOWER 60S AND LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CU RULE INDICATES SCT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MOST SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA UNDER BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING DISTURBANCES.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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