Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 150041 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 841 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Although local showers are possible Tuesday and Wednesday, widespread rain will move into the region Thursday and Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Hi-res models have been fairly consistent over the past few hours in bringing another round of showers to the southeast ridges during the hours surrounding sunrise. This is due to a weak shortwave rotating through the ongoing troughing pattern. Have increased PoPs in this region, bringing likely values back to the region. Quick dropoff in probabilities to the northwest, with dry weather for the majority. Minor tweaks to temperatures using a guidance blend. Previous discussion for Tuesday... While a slight chance of thunderstorms will remain across southeastern counties on Tuesday, focus will also shift towards the Interstate 80 corridor as weak low pressure will drop from Michigan into Ohio. Have maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms across northern zones as well. Temperatures will rise a few degrees above normal in most locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The main rainmaker this week will be low pressure moving across the Great Lakes. 12Z models have slowed down the storm slightly from previous model runs. Not only did this result in reducing pops somewhat Wednesday into Wednesday night, but it also kept likely pops in all locations Thursday night with rain ahead of the cold front. Temperatures will remain a couple of degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Longwave troughing will be the dominant feature through the period, resulting in continued unsettled conditions. Thunderstorms will accompany a cold front as it crosses Friday. After a brief break...precipitation chances will return as a midlevel shortwave crosses late Saturday/Sunday. Temperatures will be near to slightly below average. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions with diurnal CU are expected through the TAF period for most ports. Early morning valley MVFR to localized IFR fog is possible, though high/mid clouds should limit this potential to the usual ports. MVFR cigs are expected to develop at MGW overnight with increasing low lvl moisture with a weak shortwave, before VFR returns Tue aftn. Another weak shortwave could result in a Tue aftn tstm toward FKL/DUJ, but chcs appear too low for a TAF mention. .OUTLOOK... Localized early mrng fog psbl thru the week. Widespread restriction potential returns with a Thu/Fri cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.