Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 202136 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 536 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and possible thunderstorms are expected with the approach and passage of a cold front through early Sunday, before building high pressure brings dry and less humid weather through mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue through early evening in diurnally driven instability as convective temperatures are maintained. More widespread shower chances are expected later this evening with increasing shortwave support ahead of an approaching cold front. Passage of the front is progged for late night/early Sunday morning, and maintained a period of categorical pops with it`s passage with sufficient moisture and shortwave support. The front is expected to exit from W-E Sunday morning with a corresponding reduction in pops. Lows should average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels tonight, with readings close to average Sunday after frontal passage.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The 500 mb trough axis will push through Sunday night. Northwest flow off of the Great Lakes and modest cold advection may promote a few isolated showers overnight north of Pittsburgh. These will end by sunrise, with lower dewpoint air moving in. Monday and Tuesday will feature abundant sunshine and comfortable humidity levels as surface high pressure crosses. Below normal temperatures on Monday will rise closer to climatology on Tuesday as the air mass modifies and mid-level heights rise. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry weather continues through Wednesday with the passage of the mid-level trough axis, and temperatures will warm to above normal. Humidity increases again by Thursday in increasing southwesterly flow. Shower and thunderstorm chances return by Thursday night ahead of the next front. The boundary passes Friday or Friday night with continued rain chances. Behind the front, dry weather and seasonable temperatures are forecast for the start of the next weekend. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected to be maintained until the arrival of a cold front late tonight. Increasing moisture associated with a sweeping cold front will bring restrictions areawide late tonight. Expecting IFR conditions (mainly for ceilings) to spread west to east by Sunday morning. Additional restrictions in patchy fog or heavier rain showers are certainly possible as well. A dry slot behind the cold front should aid in scattering out the low clouds through the day Sunday. Otherwise, a return to VFR conditions will be gradual. Occasionally gusty south winds will shift to the west tonight with the passage of the cold front. Increased flow behind the front will cause gusty west winds through Sunday evening. TAx .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance for restrictions will be early Monday with MVFR fog and stratus.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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