Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 090511 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1211 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold weather continues. Light snow returns for most locations Saturday evening.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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A veritable chasm of dry air is encompassing the area sandwiched between the stream of Gulf moisture working up the Atlantic seaboard and a rapidly weakening system diving southeast out of the western Great Lakes. Model RH projections suggest that the clearing currently evident over Indiana, northern Ohio, and Lake Erie will most likely translate toward and then across our area through the next 15 hours or so. The net result with very low dewpoints in place will be a continuation of dry and cold conditions with the only chance of anything other than that being in the higher terrain of Garrett and Tucker counties, where some evidence exists that a bit of the current virga on radar may briefly make it to the ground as a touch of light snow. That said, dewpoints in the terrain currently running in the single digits and lower teens will lend themselves to very poorly formed crystal development and thus little/no potential for accumulation. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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Saturday will dry with temperatures recovering slightly by around 5 degrees...but still below average. A shortwave will quickly cross Saturday night and result in snow showers developing across the region. The trough axis will be east of the area by Sunday morning, however, cold air advection behind the trough will keep snow showers going, mainly over the I-80 corridor and ridge counties. These locations will see the bulk of the snow accumulations. Snow showers will largely end by Sunday afternoon as inversions lower and drier air moves in. Temperatures are expected to remain 5 to 10 degrees below average.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A longwave trough is progged to persist across the Eastern CONUS through the period, as shortwaves rotate through the trough and maintain periodic snow shower chances. Temperatures will average 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal levels on most days. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through much of the day, with only high clouds present. By evening, a disturbance digging into the Great Lakes will bring lowered ceilings and snow showers to the area. Once the lower cigs and vis reach the region, they will remain through the rest of the forecast period. VIS will be general MVFR and CIGS will be MVFR to occasional IFR, particularly at FKL. Surface flow will generally remain out of the south at 10kts or less until FROPA later tonight. .Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions is Sunday night into Monday with increased chances for light snow.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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