Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 160702 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 302 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO BE DRY BY MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER LAKES BUT WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM. WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR TIMING PURPOSES. TAX && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL IMPROVE BY LATE THIS MORNING TO VFR BUT STRATOCU CIGS AOB 5KFT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL COVERAGE SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT PROBABILITY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TAFS AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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