Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291841 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 241 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGES THIS WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES DAILY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONTINUE TO HOLD BACK POPS AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN OHIO. IN THE SPAN OF 8 HOURS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN HAS ONLY MADE IT FROM ABOUT COLUMBUS OHIO TO WHEELING WEST VIRGINIA. AS IT ENCROACHES...A LAYER OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MUST BE OVERCOME TO REACH THE GROUND. THE RESULT IS A LOT OF VIRGA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...AND THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY LOOKING PESSIMISTIC. EXPECTING THE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST PA...MEETING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES. RAIN WILL HOLD TOGETHER A LITTLE BETTER ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY FOLLOWING THE MAIN WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND WHERE IT CAN TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING OVER SOUTHWESTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROF. AS THE TROF DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF AT THE 925MB SURFACE NEAR MIDNIGHT...LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF THE OH/KY CONVECTION INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PROVIDE THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. WE WILL BE BETWEEN WAVES TUESDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN THREAT AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE BROAD UPPER TROF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PINWHEEL INTO OUR AREA. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL FEED HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FUELING INSTABILITY. THE DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT AND BOOST CAPE VALUES FURTHER...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING WAVE. TAX && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...DESPITE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN. DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL KEEP RESTRICTIONS LIMITED UNTIL FURTHER SATURATION OCCURS LATER THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL PASS LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO THE NORTH...BUT REMNANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS PRE-DAWN...WITH SOME IFR ALONG THE NORTH WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...BUT MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TAX .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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