Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201731 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 131 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A scattered shower or storm is possible mainly south and west of Pittsburgh this afternoon. Warm and humid conditions will continue into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Increased and extended PoPs just a bit further eastward than previous forecast, into the Pittsburgh area. 12Z KPIT sounding shows little capping in place initially, and instability appears sufficient to extend slight precipitation chances a bit. Forecast largely on track otherwise. Previous discussion... Short wave trough will remain to the west of most of the region today, stretching from Western Lake Erie southward through Central/Western Ohio and into Kentucky. This large scale ascension and a modestly unstable atmosphere, may be enough to fire scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Warm mid levels and subsidence should keep activity suppressed to the east of the trough. Another warm day with temperatures well above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Shortwave will phase out tonight as upper level heights begin to rise in earnest. Upper level ridging will become even more firmly entrenched over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes through the end of the week as a deep trough digs over the Western U.S.. This will lead to dry weather and further warming through Friday. Highs in the mid 80s will be common. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Little change in the large-scale circulation pattern is expected during the extended period, with the western trough/eastern ridge setup maintaining, if not strengthening, through early next week. As a result, a dry and quite warm forecast continues. With 850mb temps soaring to the 17-19C range, most locations outside of the ridges will rise well into the 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Scattered showers this afternoon will primarily affect ZZV, HLG, and MGW. An isolated shower could make its way into BVI/PIT/AGC, but did not have enough confidence to include in the TAFs. Showers should end along diurnal trend with mid level clouds clearing out as well. With skies clearing out overnight, expect that we should be back into the fog regime. Dropped all sites down to IFR visibility, and expect that multiple sites will likely bottom out at 1/4 mile, but this could be dependent on how showers play out this afternoon. .Outlook... Other than local morning fog, no widespread restrictions expected through Mon with building ridging.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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