Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201439 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1039 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... GRADUAL WARMING AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL PASSAGE OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS MORNING TO THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES AS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS ALLOWED THOSE LOCATIONS TO WARM MUCH FASTER THAN TO THE NORTH. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG CAP AT 600MB WHICH IS THEN PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 70S TO POTENTIALLY BREAK THE INVERSION BASED ON GUIDANCE...BUT JUST MODIFYING THE UPSTREAM RAOB FROM WILMINGTON OHIO WOULD PUSH THOSE SFC TEMP REQUIREMENTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WILL MONITOR OBS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES AND TAKE IT FROM THERE. FOR NOW...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON OBS AND TIMING OF A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE AS SEEN IN LATEST WV IMAGERY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BY MONDAY...EXPANSION OF THE WRN STATES RIDGE TWD THE GREAT LAKES LKS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPRESS DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION OVR ALL BUT THE OROGRAPHICAL SPPRT AREAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE WAS THUS NEEDED FOR THOSE PDS...HIGHLIGHT OF WHICH WL BE MORE SEASONAL WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.. BY WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO BGN DIGGING ANOTHER ERN NORTH AMERICAN TROF...AMPLITUDE OF WHICH RMNS IN DISPUTE AMONG MDLS. THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED FOR WED PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OHIO. POPS HAVE THUS BEEN INCRSD CLOSER TO LIKELY NMBRS GIVEN MDL CONSISTENCY OVR THE PAST CPL DAYS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED MAINLY USING THE GFS FOR POPS FOR PASSAGE OF THE MIDWEEK CDFNT...WITH TEMPERING THEREAFTER AS CONFIDENCE IN UPR TROF MAGNITUDE AND RESULTING FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL SHRTWV ENERGY RELOADS THE ATMOSPHERE NXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PTCHY MVFR CONDS ARE EXPD TO CONT THIS MRNG IN BR AND STRATOCU MAINLY FM ZZV TO PIT NWD WITH AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A CROSSING SHRTWV WL ALSO BRING A FEW SHWRS TO SOME PORTS THIS MRNG. EXP A RTN TO VFR CONDS THRU THE MRNG THRUT THE AREA AS MXG BEGINS...WITH CONTD SC/CU CIGS. ANOTHER ADVNG WK SHRTWV WL BRING LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS LTR TDA...HOWEVER COVG IS EXPD TO BE TOO LMTD FOR TAF MENTION ATTM. CLDS SCT LT TNGT WITH MVFR VSBYS PSBL IN BR. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS RTNS WITH A LT WED/THU CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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