Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250129 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 929 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL INITIATE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THAT SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO REGION LATE TONIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ON THE VAN OF THE DISTURBANCE. LOW TEMPS ARE THUS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED EARLY WITH MODERATION IN THE PREDAWN...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED A BRIEF CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN GARRETT COUNTY WHERE THE COLD COULD DAM IN THE LOW LEVELS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PIT WHERE THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED...AND WHERE THE AXIS OF A LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE WAVE EXITS BY AFTERNOON. AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG IT...IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PREFERRED THE QUICKER ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS GIVEN UPPER FLOW AND DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WARM ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX IN. AFTER ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A RETURN TO READINGS WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND EVENTUAL MVFR CEILINGS AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE AROUND SUNRISE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD. EXPECT THAT ALL SITES WILL HAVE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN OHIO DURING THE MORNING. HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ZZV...BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT LLJ WOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCLUDE LLWS AT ANY OTHER TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/33

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