Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180426 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1226 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain warm weather until passage of a mid week cold front. Rain chances will also increase as that boundary encroaches on the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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No changes to previous forecast thinking, with only minor adjustments for the overnight. Warm weather will be the focus for the remainder of the near term period as warm advection and insolation will support temperatures about about 20 degrees above average. See the climate section below for details on possible records for Tuesday, which will also feature wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph in a tightened pressure gradient. By late day, an approaching cold front will bring showers chances for Northwest PA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The aforementioned cold front is forecast to stall and become more diffuse on Tuesday night into Wednesday, with chance POPs and continued mild temperature. A wave of low pressure is then progged to develop on the front and further increase shower chances on Thursday as the mid/upper trough over the midwest amplifies. The only changes completed for this period were tweaks to timing of the precip probability. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Much cooler temperatures are expected over the region through the weekend, as upper level troughing develops over the Eastern CONUS. Scattered showers will remain in the forecast through Sunday as cold advection continues and shortwaves in northwest flow traverse the area. Dry, but seasonably cool conditions are anticipated as high pressure builds for the start of the new work-week. Superblend guidance was used for the extended period. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, although winds will be a factor. Light southwest winds overnight at the surface will be overtopped by a low level jet. This will bring will bring low-level wind shear to most terminals, although it appears the jet may not make it far enough east to impact MGW. The primary threat period for LLWS should be from midnight through mid- morning. After that time, stronger momentum should mix out to the surface, allowing for 25 to 30kt wind gusts. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Restrictions are expected with a system that enters the region Tuesday night and lingers all the way through Saturday, with the greatest chance for showers and restrictions expected to be Thursday and Friday.
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&& .CLIMATE... Well above average temperatures are expected through mid week. The better potential for reaching record high temperatures is on Tuesday. Below are the Tuesday Oct 18th records and year of occurrence for selected sites. PIT...83 set in 1938 MGW...83 set in 1963 ZZV...81 set in 1964 PHD...83 set in 1968 HLG...79 set in 1950 DUJ...79 set in 1963 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.