Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170829 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 329 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will result in mainly dry conditions and well above normal temperatures through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Moisture rounding the base of the upper-level trough is manifested as mid to high clouds this morning. These have complicated temperature trends, as earlier radiational cooling has been suppressed or halted completely. The result is a temperature gradient of low and mid teens to the northeast to near the freezing mark in eastern Ohio. The last vestiges of the upper trough will be the remaining high clouds that will continue to stream through today. Otherwise, heights will continue to build and increasing warm air advection will bring temperatures back to above normal readings. That warming trend will continue tonight as lows will be closer to the seasonal highs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Dry and unseasonable warmth will carry into the weekend as the ridge builds and warm southwest flow continues. Models hinting at a thin layer of moisture below 900mb across the north Saturday morning. Thinking that some stirring near the top of the boundary layer could generate stratus, mainly north of Pittsburgh. Thus, have increased clouds in the pre-dawn hours there. Highs Saturday will likely reach into the 60s in many locations, nearing records for some climate sites (see Climate section below). Moisture will continue to increase with southwest flow Saturday evening as a slow and weak low departs the Mississippi Valley. Models continue to have this decaying wave pass to our south, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. This could generate a few showers along the mountains of WV/MD. With temperatures expected to remain well above normal, precipitation will remain in the form of rain.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The mid-level ridge builds once again in the wake of the Saturday night/Sunday shortwave, with mostly dry weather and continued much above normal temperatures into Tuesday. The next front and weak Great Lakes shortwave is expected to arrive thereafter. This will not bring a new troughing pattern aloft, but will instead create more of a zonal flow pattern, albeit one with above normal 500 mb heights. Thus, rain chances return for late Tuesday and Wednesday. The front may have trouble clearing the CWA, thus some slight chance PoPs remain in the grids into Friday. Warm temperatures will continue.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low clouds have exited the region to the northeast. While mid clouds will overspread the area tonight, ceilings will remain VFR. Favorable flight conditions and generally light winds will remain the rule through the TAF period. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday cold front. && .CLIMATE...
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Record High Temperatures February 18: Pittsburgh, PA 66 (2011) Zanesville, OH 64 (2011/1994) Morgantown, WV 73 (1981) DuBois, PA 57 (1981) Wheeling, WV 60 (2008) New Philadelphia, OH 62 (1961)
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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