Area Forecast Discussion
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836 FXUS61 KPBZ 192208 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 508 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain with a warm front north of Pittsburgh should end this evening. Dry and warm weather is expected under a high pressure ridge Tuesday. Rain chances return with a Wednesday cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Rain along a nwd tracking warm front N of PIT should gradually taper off through the evening as the front completes its passage. Elsewhere, shortwave ridging S of the front should result in dry weather overnight. Lows tonight are expected to be 30 to 35 degrees above average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Record breaking highs forecast for Tuesday. With the warm front pushing well north of the area Tuesday morning and the strengthening upper-level ridge nudging in from the south, dry weather will be maintained. Cloudy morning sky conditions will give way to gradual clearing through the day as the south- southwesterly flow fully mixes down the dry air aloft. High low temperatures, increasing insolation, strong warm advection, and building heights should all mean efficient warming is expected. High temperatures were kept on the high side of guidance, but a degree or two below the high MEX/MAV numbers as recent moist conditions will be a minor limiting factor. Regardless, highs are forecast to break records for Feb 20th. A climate section has been inserted below. The aforementioned ridge will keep the forecast area dry through at least Wednesday morning. Finally, the upper-level flow will steer the central U.S. low northeastward through Ontario, flopping the cold front over our area west to east. Some timing differences exist, but highest rain chances look to be during the day Wednesday. Current timing has this sharp boundary creating non-diurnal temperature curve for some, especially further north and east. Locations south and east of Pittsburgh should see one more strong warming day before the temperatures drop. We could make a run at a few record highs, but this will be highly dependent on timing of the front. With the upper-level support shunting northeast following the track of the low, only modest lift associated with the surface front is expected. Therefore, potential for high rainfall amounts with this round will be limited. In total, another quarter to half an inch can be expected.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday`s cold front opens the door to a stream of Gulf moisture that will bring multiple rounds of showers to the area. Several shortwaves will pass through the mean flow and could result in additional hydrologic concerns through the weekend. Model differences certainly do exist during this time, but rain chances were kept in the likely range for much of the weekend. A mention of potential water issues has been inserted into the HWO. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Rain continues to move northeastward this afternoon. Expect MVFR and IFR conditions to improve with the northward departure of the warm front as indicated on satellite and surface observations, save for KFKL/KDUJ where low cigs may linger until later tonight. VFR should then prevail for much of the period tonight-tomorrow. Outside some diurnal cu in moist southerly flow, a passing shortwave aloft may briefly return some ceiling restrictions over the north tomorrow afternoon. Strong low level jet will support the continuation of LLWS in most of the TAFs through tomorrow morning. OUTLOOK... The risk for widespread restrictions returns late Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs are forecast Tuesday and possible Wednesday Location Feb20 Record Feb21 Record Pittsburgh 68 (1891) 73 (1997) Zanesville 71 (1939) 72 (1997) Morgantown 70 (1994) 75 (1874) DuBois 61 (2016) 60 (1983) Wheeling 68 (1930/2016) 68 (1930) New Philadelphia 69 (1994) 66 (2017) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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