Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 262156 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 556 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VERY LOW DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED BEHIND LAST EVENING`S COLD FRONT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WIND GUSTS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME LESS COMMON THIS EVENING...AND WINDS WILL LIKELY GO RELATIVELY CALM OVERNIGHT. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL FOLLOW...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S WALL-TO-WALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLDER SPOTS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY FALL INTO THE 20S BY SUNRISE. FRIES SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH AS A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION MONDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WARMING INTO THE 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BUT MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON...APPROACH PITTSBURGH BY SUNSET...AND REACH THE RIDGES BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE WIDENED THE AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS OHIO COUNTIES AND PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER...WIND SHEAR WILL BE RESPECTABLE...AND SPC HAS INCLUDED THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOCATIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES AT THAT TIME. SKIES COULD BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND DROP TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... QUIET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH RAN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BLDG HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. SFC WIND...WITH GUSTS TO ARND 20 KTS TDA...WL BACK TO THE S DURING THE NXT 24 HRS AS LOW PRES DVLPS TWD THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A LATE TUESDAY CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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