Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 040541 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1241 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS TAKING ITS GOOD OLD TIME GETTING HERE AND THE FLOW NEVER REALLY SWINGS TO AN OPTIMAL DIRECTION UNTIL AFTER DAWN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS WELL BELOW THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH AND A DRYING LOWER ATMOSPHERE EVERYWHERE. THE DRY AIR IS WELL DEPICTED ON CURRENT OBS...AS LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MAKING THERE WAY INTO THE REGION. ANY LIFT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS BEING SHEARED TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500MB. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE. OTHER THEN A STRATOCU DECK AND A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...VERY LITTLE ELSE IS EXPECTED TODAY. ITS POSSIBLE A LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER COULD CLIP THE NORTH TODAY...BUT POPS WILL BE LOW AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE SHALLOW AND THE FLOW IS RATHER WEAK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS ADVERTISED IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH INVERSIONS REMAINING BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN THE RIDGES AS THE COLD AIR FORCES THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOW GROWTH ZONE TOWARD THE SURFACE AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW. COLD AIR WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...SO THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. AFTER A DRY PERIOD SUNDAY...A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...AND EVENTUALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD. THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME MIXING EXPECT AN IMPROVMENT TO BKN VFR LATE DAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST AROUND 10 KTS. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... GENERAL VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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