Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220112 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 912 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking south of our area will spread some rain northward into our area this weekend, mainly to areas along and south of I-70. Temperatures will remain near or just below normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Made mainly minor changes to the forecast for the overnight period. Light rain is making northeastward progress in the middle Ohio Valley, aided by isentropic lift and support from right exit region of 250mb jet streak. HRRR/NAM have shown this scenario fairly well so far, bringing precipitation into the CWA overnight. Will continue with higher PoPs across the south, where best support will lie. Made only minor tweaks to other parameters, with overnight low temps in the upper 30s to mid 40s still looking good. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure in conjunction with a crossing northern stream upper trough is likely to generate rain south of the I 70 corridor on Saturday, then funnel moisture across I 68 through the weekend as it digs over the Southeast Conus. Have maintained chance POPs for that area into Monday with limitations expected from weak dynamics on the northern periphery of the low. Seasonal temperature can be expected throughout and only minor alterations were completed. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry weather and moderating temperature is expected next week as ridging ensues in advance of a Wrn CONUS trough. Temperature is expected to rise 10 to 20 degrees above average by late week. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions at the start of the TAF period, but deterioration to MVFR is expected at most terminals overnight. With low pressure passing to the south, some light rain is possible, mainly south of I-70. Slow improvement in ceilings will occur from north to south tomorrow afternoon, with VFR achievable at all terminals save for MGW by 00Z. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible into Saturday night with departing low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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