Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 010456 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1156 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and seasonally cool temperatures across the area through the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Showers and gusty winds associated with a crossing cold front should continue to exit the area tonight. After a brief period of clearing, clouds should return with cold advection and upper troughing as a closed upper low moves across Ontario. Lows should average a few degrees above average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Gradually colder though the period as a mid level trough slowly moves across eastern Canada. While 850mb temps will fall toward -7C, low level flow will remain west to southwest into Friday night, keeping bulk of lake effect snow showers well north of I-80. A fairly dry column will keep any accumulations in the ridges and north of I-80 light. Flow may turn a bit northwest Saturday so have maintained low snow shower chances. Temperatures will move to average or just below through the period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry high pressure will end any snow showers saturday night into early Sunday. Next fast moving shortwave looks to arrive with mostly rain showers later Sunday into early Monday. Models then continue to have trouble with timing of shortwaves and cold air moving east into mid week, and a blend of models was used for the latter part of the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will cross during the evening hours, with a few lines of gusty showers accompanying it. Ceilings will remain MVFR for the most part, although VFR may continue for another hour or two east of Pittsburgh until the front approaches. Wind gusts of up to 30 knots will occur with the wind shift to the west. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder but chances are too low for inclusion. Ceilings will return to VFR levels overnight as the front departs, but many locations are expected to see another period of MVFR ceilings on Thursday as a secondary disturbance follows the front. A few scattered showers may reappear near I-80 and along the ridges as well. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are possible through the weekend especially N of I 70 with broad upper troughing and cold W-NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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