-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141045
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
645 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY WILL TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS THE
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 8AM. THE HIGH
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACT ON COMPARABLY MODEST INSTBY ALONG THIS CDFNT
AND WILL GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS WED AFTN-EVE. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS AGREE IN A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY BEFORE A DEEPENING TROUGH
AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE AND MOVES IT EASTWARD FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INHERENT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW...DECREASING CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...OPTED TO
KEEP NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHICH
IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH BOTH HPC/MEX GUIDANCE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND AND MID-CLOUD DECK OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COMING JUST AFTER TAF FORECAST
PERIOD INTO THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCT SHWRS/TSTMS
WL BRING PSBL RESTRNS WED NT INTO THU. VFR EXP FRI WITH INCRG
SHWR/TSTM CHCS FOR SAT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039-040-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ041.
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023.

&&

$$