Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220755 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 355 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and unsettled weather is expected through Saturday with a crossing upper level disturbance. Dry weather should return Sunday under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Rain associated with the deformation band from large deep low to our east is quickly eroding. As this precipitation forcing winds down, mesoscale effects come more into play. Moisture convergence parallel with the long axis of Lake Huron is extending southward over Lake Erie. This lake-to-lake fetch is funneling rain showers into northern and eastern Ohio currently, but will gradually shift to the east, as winds slowly back later this morning. After a break in precipitation early this morning, chances will return across the Pittsburgh metro and downwind into the Ridges through at least midday. Low-level temperatures continue to fall at this hour and this is translating to the surface, bringing near-surface temperatures into the upper 30s and low 40s. As temperatures continue to dip, it`s reasonable to expect some snow showers in the high terrain of WV and MD. Considering how warm we`ve been, any accumulation should be minimal and on grassy surfaces. An tightening pressure gradient and mixing in cold advection should also result in gusty winds especially in the higher terrain, where gusts around 40 mph are expected. At this time, have not hoisted an advisory but have mentioned the wind gusts in the HWO. Low temperatures should be near the seasonal averages. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Sunday will begin dry as high pressure tracks well to our south. Deamplifying flow aloft and gusty southwest winds will allow clouds to decrease and push afternoon temperatures back up to climatology. Clouds will begin to increase again late in the day ahead of a quick-moving surface low/midlevel shortwave dropping across the Great Lakes. The best chance for showers late Sunday and Sunday night will lie north of Pittsburgh where the best low-level convergence will be seen, with some isolated activity possible along the ridges. The low will drag a front across Sunday night, which will bring temperatures back to below normal. Monday will feature lingering clouds in northwest flow, most numerous across the north, where a few isolated showers may continue. Skies should begin to clear Monday night as surface high pressure and upper ridging return.
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Continued ridging aloft will maintain dry weather into Wednesday.A digging trough will cross the Mississippi River and begin to impact our region during the late week period, with our next decent chance of rain. The models differ on the fate of this trough at the end of next week, lending much uncertainty to precipitation chances and amounts. Temperatures will be near or just a bit below climatology through the period.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Generally seeing MVFR conditions this morning as low-level moisture wraps around the parent low to our east. Expecting a gradual improvement through the day, but downlake areas should improve slower, due to the continual feed of low moisture into the area. Expect VFR conditions to be realized first at ZZV and slowly further south and east away from Lake Erie through Saturday. Expect wind gusts of 25 to 30 kts as the mixing deepens via cold advection at the top of the layer. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Periodic restrictions can be expected until high pressure approaches the region in the wake of a late Sunday/early Monday shortwave and associated weak front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.