Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230724 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 324 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY BY MEMORIAL DAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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ONLY A FEW CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS REGION. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH SOME WARMING AT 850 MB. STILL COOL TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS COLD WITH MINS IN THE 40S AS DEW POINTS BEGIN TO RISE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING AS AGAIN MODEL TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUE TO SLOW IN MOVING THE STORM TO THE EAST. DELAYED TIMING SHOULD KEEP DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING MONDAY. A BIT LEERY OF A NEARLY DRY FORECAST WITH WARM FRONT CROSSING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD SUFFICE. BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHORTWAVES RIDING UP THE FRONT OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STEADILY THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WITH RADPIDLY INCREASING HUMIDITY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MODEL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE RESTRICTIONS CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001. OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041. PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ013-014- 020>023-029-031-073>076. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-015- 016. WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001-002-023- 041. && $$

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