Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 242329 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 729 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures are expected to be above normal through the seven day forecast. Rain is expected Sunday into Sunday night, and again Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Only made some tweaks to sky cover and the hourly temp/dewpoint curves for the evening. HRRR/RAP are suggesting that a few showers could sneak into the I-80 corridor prior to 12Z. Will watch trends and possibly add a small PoP to this area in the next update. Forecast on track otherwise. Previous discussion... A warm front will remain nearly stationary over New York tonight, eventually dropping a bit farther south into Pennsylvania on Saturday. Expect that any precipitation tonight should remain well north of the forecast area, with chance pops dropping into the Interstate 80 corridor by Saturday afternoon. These pops may need to be spread farther south, but with some model differences, have decided to be conservative with PoPs for now. Models are in pretty good agreement that it will be a warm 24 hour period. Tonight`s lows should only drop into the 50s, while high temperatures tomorrow will be dependent on the eventual position of the front. Current forecast brings northern counties "only" into the lower 60s, while south of Interstate 70, 70s are expected once again. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... While low pressure over the Plains drifts northeastward through the period, a front will rotate through the region Sunday into Sunday night. Have continued the categorical pops in the forecast, along with a chance of thunder Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers may linger into Monday, primarily across eastern counties. The frontal passage will do little to change temperatures, with values remaining well above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak low pressure will race across the area Monday night into Tuesday, bringing another round of showers to the area. High pressure behind the low will yield northerly winds, ushering in some cooler air. Even so, temperatures should not drop below seasonal norms. Dry weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday, with another round of showers forecast for Friday. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected tonight under shortwave ridging. Moisture pooling along a slow SWD moving cold front should result in MVFR ceilings over NW PA by Saturday morning, continuing through the day. Ceilings should lower elsewhere as the front moves further south, though VFR levels should be maintained. A low level jet across nrn OH/nw PA should result in a LLWS potential overnight until the jet diminishes Sat morning. Outlook... Restrictions are possible N of PIT Sat night with a warm front. Widespread restrictions are likely Sunday/Sunday night with crossing low pressure, and again with a Monday night/Tuesday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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