Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 252329 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 729 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER CONDITIONS AND SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOOD OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO MOVES TOWARD WESTERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED STRATOCUMULUS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING INTO TOTAL FREE FALL...THOUGH LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BE WIDESPREAD REGARDLESS. ALL IN ALL...A VERY NORMAL NIGHT IF IT WAS OCTOBER. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN FILLING ON THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...SHORT- TERM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH COOL REINFORCEMENT VIA ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WERE MAINTAINED FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF I 70 FOR PASSAGE OF THAT FEATURE...WITH IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH BY FRIDAY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL BRING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM ALREADY SHOWING BROKEN MVFR CONDITIONS AND THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENCROACH WITH THE NEXT WAVE WITH CIGS DECREASING AS MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CEASES. NOT CONFIDENT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT AS FAR AS KPIT...SO A GENERAL GRADIENT FROM VFR SOUTH TO LOW MVFR NORTH IS MAINTAINED...WITH KPIT HOLDING ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SIDE. TAX OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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