Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS -- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KPBZ 261603
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1203 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Dry conditions will persist until low pressure brings rain to the
region tonight and Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Added some low PoPs to the western counties for spotty light rain
falling out of mid-deck, some of which may not be reaching the
ground given the dry low levels. Hi-res models continue to
indicate focus turning more to area north of Pittsburgh with time
and will continue with that for now, but further modification to
afternoon PoPs may be necessary. Minor changes otherwise.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will track from Chicago to Lake Erie and up to
Lake Ontario tonight and Thursday, and will swing a cold front
through the region Thursday afternoon. Previous PoP forecast
looks on track, with the higher probabilities and qpf generally
over the northern half of the area. A non-diurnal temperature
curve will see temperatures decreasing Wednesday evening, then
slowly rising overnight. While the bulk of precipitation will move
east Thursday afternoon, colder air moving into the region will
allow for scattered lake-enhanced showers to develop, although
there may not be a long period as winds become northerly and
inversions quickly lower. Any lingering showers over the north and
east, will end Friday morning. Temperatures will remain below
normal through the period.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Still a bit of model uncertainty with a system moving along the
US-Canadian border through the weekend, so have strayed very
little from previous forecast. High pressure will move across the
eastern United States Monday and Tuesday, yielding dry weather.
Saturday and Tuesday should have temperatures a few degrees above
normal, with seasonal temperatures Sunday and Monday.
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Patchy fog of varying intensity will burn off by mid to late morning.
The afternoon and evening will feature VFR conditions, albeit with
increasing clouds. ESE winds will pick up later today. Showers
will start to develop from the NW as well, likely advancing to the
SE after the end of the TAF period, with MVFR flight conditions
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The next chance for general restrictions will come late Wednesday
with low pressure advancing out of the midwest.