Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 200547
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
147 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016
Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, then a cold front will
bring better rain chances tonight into Sunday. Dry weather and
much less humidity is expected next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
No major changes to the overnight period. Minor adjustments to
PoPs, clouds and temperatures.
Moisture will continue to increase today in southerly flow ahead
of an approaching cold front. Lift is not overly impressive and
warm air aloft may be enough to cap convection for much of the
day. Area of low-level convergence would likely place a better
chance for afternoon showers and storms over the ridges, so
highest PoPs will be confined to those locations. Temperatures
should stay close to seasonal values.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main player remains the mid-level trough moving from the
upper Midwest across the Great Lakes, and it`s leading cold front.
Decent model agreement on the depth and timing of the system. Will
continue with categorical PoPs for showers, along the front, but
keeping thunderstorms in chance PoPs due to the best lift
remaining north of the CWA and time of day. A few showers may
linger behind the front on Sunday, but overall a quick end to
post-frontal activity is expected.
Skies will clear and dew points will begin to drop off later
Sunday, signaling a welcome air mass change.
Dry and noticeably less humid air will be in place Monday, along
with plenty of sunshine.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The dry pattern will continue through Wednesday night as the
surface high slowly moves east. Mean troughing aloft will
transition to mean ridging by Wednesday, which suggests a warming
trend. Still, dewpoints should remain in the comfortable range
through then. More humid weather arrives Thursday in southwest
flow. The next front approaches in the Thursday night/Friday
period, with the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Fog will be possible early this morning as latest forecast
soundings show a favorable hydrolapse, upper level cloud coverage
dissipates, and temperatures approach dewpoints.
After any development burns off by mid-morning, VFR is largely
expected with limited shower/storm coverage.
.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The next chance for widespread restrictions will come with a
strong cold front Saturday night into Sunday.
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