Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200547 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 147 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms today, then a cold front will bring better rain chances tonight into Sunday. Dry weather and much less humidity is expected next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... No major changes to the overnight period. Minor adjustments to PoPs, clouds and temperatures. Moisture will continue to increase today in southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Lift is not overly impressive and warm air aloft may be enough to cap convection for much of the day. Area of low-level convergence would likely place a better chance for afternoon showers and storms over the ridges, so highest PoPs will be confined to those locations. Temperatures should stay close to seasonal values. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The main player remains the mid-level trough moving from the upper Midwest across the Great Lakes, and it`s leading cold front. Decent model agreement on the depth and timing of the system. Will continue with categorical PoPs for showers, along the front, but keeping thunderstorms in chance PoPs due to the best lift remaining north of the CWA and time of day. A few showers may linger behind the front on Sunday, but overall a quick end to post-frontal activity is expected. Skies will clear and dew points will begin to drop off later Sunday, signaling a welcome air mass change. Dry and noticeably less humid air will be in place Monday, along with plenty of sunshine. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The dry pattern will continue through Wednesday night as the surface high slowly moves east. Mean troughing aloft will transition to mean ridging by Wednesday, which suggests a warming trend. Still, dewpoints should remain in the comfortable range through then. More humid weather arrives Thursday in southwest flow. The next front approaches in the Thursday night/Friday period, with the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Fog will be possible early this morning as latest forecast soundings show a favorable hydrolapse, upper level cloud coverage dissipates, and temperatures approach dewpoints. After any development burns off by mid-morning, VFR is largely expected with limited shower/storm coverage. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The next chance for widespread restrictions will come with a strong cold front Saturday night into Sunday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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