Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 160829 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 329 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers will taper down later today. High pressure will then build in for the beginning of the weekend with drier and warmer conditions expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A nearly stationary upper-level low pressure system will continue to enhance cold northwest flow across the area. This will keep snow showers in the forecast through this morning as the pool of cold air enhances overhead. The 00z sounding showed 850mb temperatures nearing -12C. Further lowering of the dendritic snow growth layer will continue to squeeze out high ratio snow, especially in the high terrain. Will keep the Winter Weather Advisory intact through the early morning and reassess near daybreak. Later today, the center of the upper low will translate eastward as the surface low intensifies near Nova Scotia. This will allow drier air to invade and heights to build locally. Inversion heights will suppress to the point where appreciable snow production will be choked off. Cold air already in place will keep temperatures below average. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Broad area of high pressure will build in Friday, bringing much quieter weather for the weekend. Passing mid-level moisture could result in some clouds Friday, but otherwise all signs point to temperatures warming quickly. Strong warm advection will push Friday highs about 10 degrees above average, and even warmer for Saturday. By Saturday afternoon a few locations may be just a few degrees off record highs. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A shortwave crossing the Tennessee Valley will temporarily knock down the ridging pattern over the eastern U.S., but most of the precipitation is still expected to fall to the south. Some light rain is still possible in areas south of Pittsburgh on Saturday night. High pressure and ridging aloft then return for Sunday and Monday, with continued well-above normal temperatures. A shearing shortwave crossing the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday may succeed in dampening the upper ridge and creating more of a zonal flow pattern. This would lead to more unsettled conditions from Tuesday on and bring some minor precipitation chances. Still, temperatures will cool only slightly and remain well above climatology through Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Snow showers will continue overnight across the area. Prevailing conditions will generally fall in the VFR/high-end MVFR range, but brief drops to IFR will remain possible in the heavier showers. Coverage of snow showers will begin to drop off after sunrise as upper level low pressure starts to pull away. Flight conditions will improve to VFR during the daylight hours, with clearing occurring by sunset. Winds will continue to gust to between 15 and 25 knots through the TAF period before subsiding after sunset. .OUTLOOK... A weak disturbance may bring restrictions Friday morning, otherwise the next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ001. OH...None. PA...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ511>514. && $$

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