Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 160841 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 341 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered rain and snow showers are expected today with an upper level disturbance. Dry weather should return Friday under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Scattered showers should continue early this morning as a cold front completes it`s passage. Partial clearing behind the front should be brief as as upper trough returns clouds, along with scattered rain and snow showers to the area as it crosses today. Maintained likely POPs N of PIT where some lake/terrain enhancement should result in more numerous shower coverage. Surface temperatures should be too warm for accumulations, though colder temperatures in the WV/MD ridges could result in minor localized accumulations. Gradually falling temperatures are expected today in cold advection. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Building high pressure should end the scattered precip this evening, and maintain dry and cool weather through Friday evening. After some partial clearing Thu night, clouds should increase Fri ahead of low pressure advancing out of the Plains. This low should drag a warm front across the region Friday night as it tracks to the Great Lakes region. Rain and rising temperatures are expected, mainly after midnight with the front. Occasional rain is expected Saturday as a series of shortwaves cross the area in SW flow ahead of an approaching upper trough. The surface low is progged to track into Southern Ontario by Sat evening as it drags a cold front across the region. Strong winds are progged above the surface Sat, though model progged soundings show a capping inversion preventing those stronger winds from reaching the surface. Gusts are possible along and behind the front, though think these should mainly be below advisory levels given momentum transfer values on BUFKIT. Cold advection should change rain showers to snow Sat night as the upper trough approaches. Maintain likely POPs toward morning N of PIT and in the ridges, where lake and terrain enhancement is expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Another shortwave rotating through the main upper trough should maintain snow shower chances through Sunday evening. Maintained the highest POPs N of PIT and in the ridges with the lake/terrain enhancement. Will monitor future mesoscale trends in finer resolution models to better evaluate the snow potential. Ridging should result in dry weather early in the week before upper troughing returns minimal precip chances N of PIT by midweek. Temperatures should average below seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Partial clearing/VFR conditions behind and exiting cold front should quickly deteriorate to MVFR ceilings early this morning as an upper trough crosses the area in cold NW flow. The MVFR is expected through this evening to last through the evening before the trough exits and high pressure builds in returning VFR to the area. Gusty WNW winds are expected today behind the cold front with a tight surface pressure gradient. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely again with a Sat cold front and with Sun upper troughing and cold NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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