Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 221743
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
143 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016
Showers today will give way to drier and warmer weather through
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Deformation precipitation around the mid-level low to our east has
made no westward progress at this hour, contrary to virtually all
model guidance. Satellite imagery additionally indicates no
discernible westward wobble seems to be in the near future.
Furthermore, mesoanalysis plots indicate the core of the mid-level
cold air is settling over our CWA as we speak, which should be
maximizing mid-level lapse rates. However, visible imagery
indicates cumulus development across our region is still rather
unimpressive. While scattered showers still seem likely to
develop, their coverage is unlikely to be what was previously
expected and given the weak diurnal rises in temperatures, thunder
is seeming less likely in mist locations. The exception to this is
likely to be along the Ohio River and Allegheny River, where the
sun managed to peek out for a few minutes to add some additional
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Residual showers will diminish/shift eastward this eve with
stabilization; however, the matured, stacked low is forecast to
remain over the Mid-Atlantic Region through Monday. The chance for
diurnally supported showers has thus been maintained for counties
east and south of Pittsburgh.
Building high pressure in the wake of the northeastward exiting
low should suppress any regional shower chances by Tuesday, and
warm temperature nearly 10 degrees above the average by wednesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to
develop with general southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for the
latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support
increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend
approaches. POPS and above average temperature were forecast using
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR conditions will generally erode this morning with the slowest
improvements at KLBE and KMGW, where light NW upslope flow will
allow for stratus to linger the longest. As a mid-level low drops
southward and increases instability as the mid-levels cool, this
should allow for better cumulus development again this afternoon.
Scattered showers will develop across the area, and a few
thunderstorms will be possible. Coverage of thunder will not be
sufficient to include in the coded forecasts at this time. Fries
.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Restrictions are possible through Monday before the upper low