Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 160829
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
329 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017
Snow showers will taper down later today. High pressure will
then build in for the beginning of the weekend with drier and
warmer conditions expected.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A nearly stationary upper-level low pressure system will
continue to enhance cold northwest flow across the area. This
will keep snow showers in the forecast through this morning as
the pool of cold air enhances overhead. The 00z sounding showed 850mb
temperatures nearing -12C. Further lowering of the dendritic
snow growth layer will continue to squeeze out high ratio snow,
especially in the high terrain. Will keep the Winter Weather
Advisory intact through the early morning and reassess near
Later today, the center of the upper low will translate eastward
as the surface low intensifies near Nova Scotia. This will allow
drier air to invade and heights to build locally. Inversion
heights will suppress to the point where appreciable snow
production will be choked off. Cold air already in place will
keep temperatures below average.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Broad area of high pressure will build in Friday, bringing much
quieter weather for the weekend. Passing mid-level moisture
could result in some clouds Friday, but otherwise all signs
point to temperatures warming quickly. Strong warm advection
will push Friday highs about 10 degrees above average, and even
warmer for Saturday. By Saturday afternoon a few locations may
be just a few degrees off record highs.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A shortwave crossing the Tennessee Valley will temporarily knock
down the ridging pattern over the eastern U.S., but most of the
precipitation is still expected to fall to the south. Some light
rain is still possible in areas south of Pittsburgh on Saturday
night. High pressure and ridging aloft then return for Sunday and
Monday, with continued well-above normal temperatures.
A shearing shortwave crossing the Great Lakes Monday night and
Tuesday may succeed in dampening the upper ridge and creating more
of a zonal flow pattern. This would lead to more unsettled
conditions from Tuesday on and bring some minor precipitation
chances. Still, temperatures will cool only slightly and remain
well above climatology through Thursday.
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.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Snow showers will continue overnight across the area. Prevailing
conditions will generally fall in the VFR/high-end MVFR range,
but brief drops to IFR will remain possible in the heavier
showers. Coverage of snow showers will begin to drop off after
sunrise as upper level low pressure starts to pull away. Flight
conditions will improve to VFR during the daylight hours, with
clearing occurring by sunset. Winds will continue to gust to
between 15 and 25 knots through the TAF period before subsiding
A weak disturbance may bring restrictions Friday morning,
otherwise the next chance for widespread restrictions will be
with a Tuesday cold front.
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for