Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191539 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1139 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonal temperatures with an isolated shower or thunderstorm are expected through Saturday. A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday and eventually much lower humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Shortwave that helped to develop convection over WI/lower MI is progged by some of the model guidance to approach the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon and evening. While it will make an attempt to break down the weak ridging aloft and at the surface, generally think that it`s timing will be rather late. Regardless, diurnal heating should provide for enough instability for some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Went with higher pops in the west based on the approach of the aforementioned shortwave, with low chance pops elsewhere as depicted on the latest hi res model guidance. 850hpa temperatures are slightly warmer today than yesterday, so temperatures were bumped up a degree.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep moisture will increase Saturday in southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid-level trough and cold front. Afternoon chance POPs Saturday along with increasing humidity. Good model agreement on strong mid-level trough and cold front Sunday, but settling on the exact time is still in flux. Boundary will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. Still humid Sunday ahead of the front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will give cooler and less humid conditions through the middle of next week. Low confidence toward the end of the period, as models are still trying to solve the timing and location of the next front. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the day, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon with little in the way of a lifting mechanism. This chance is too low to add to any of the terminals at this time. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The next chance for widespread restrictions will come with a strong cold front Saturday night and Sunday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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