Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201017 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 517 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIDGES AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS COME INTO PLAY. WITH WINDS AT 85OH SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... CAA WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND RIDGES TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND UNORGANIZED. INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT WITH SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING THROUGH...THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BE VERY LOW AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL EXPAND POP COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF MY FA...DEPENDING UPON WHERE TONIGHT`S BAND SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH LOWERING INVERSIONS. BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING. AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AND END TO THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. IT WILL TAKE ALL DAY TO EJECT THE COLD POOL ALOFT...SO EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AND THE FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE WAA...WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING DRY AS THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...SO ANY PRECIP THAT IS CREATED WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WARMER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE RISK FOR SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR STRATOCU BETWEEN 4-5KFT. A TROUGH WILL THEN SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN MVFR CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. WINDS WILL FINALLY LESSEN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE AREA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY /... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES BY...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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