Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280610 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 210 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY. ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT 09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT. TAX && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED. SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT. TAX OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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