Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011341 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 941 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MID-MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS UP FOR PORTIONS NORTH OF I-80. RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN SCATTERED IN NATURE AND THE HI-RES MODEL SUITE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. FOLLOWED THIER TREND OF PUSHING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONSIDERABLE DRYING DISSIPATES THEM COMPLETELY. ELSEWHERE...THE LOW STRATUS THAT HAS GRIPPED THE AREA THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DETERIORATION. THIS PROCESS...LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS...WILL TAKE THROUGH MIDDAY...EVENTUALLY MIXING THE STRATUS INTO STRATOCU WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AND A PLEASANT EVENING LOOKS TO BE ON TAP. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW STRATUS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY...BUT TRANSITION FROM IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO MVFR/VFR STRATOCU WILL BE GRADUAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS IMPROVING QUIKER THAN OTHERS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH IN FKL/DUJ TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO FKL/DUJ IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. TAX .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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