Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230547 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1247 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm weather will continue until the passage of a Saturday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Another mild night across the forecast area in the current warm advection regime. Overnight lows will largely remain above 50F with extensive cloud coverage and no anticipated change to dewpoints. There will be a chance of scattered showers today as a weak frontal boundary sags south towards the forecast area...limited mainly to northern zones as the boundary is progged to stall in in the vicinity of the I-80 corridor before lifting back to the north as a warm front. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Any remaining showers will taper diminish this evening as the warm front lifts north tonight. This process will plant us firmly in the warm sector for much of Friday, and will result in dry weather and a peaking of the warm temperatures. Highs on Friday will soar into the 70s for the majority. The models are continuing the slower trend with the well- advertised frontal passage, which is now slated for Saturday morning or early afternoon. Have slowed PoP progression a bit as a result. The timing of the passage would still not seem to favor much of a severe threat given the expected lack of buoyancy, but with strong flow and plenty of shear to enhance updrafts, any storms may need to be monitored for wind gusts. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Behind the cold front, wraparound showers will drop in coverage Saturday night, with snow showers possible. Sunday will likely be the only completely dry day in the extended forecast. Model guidance is then a little uncertain with timing of a system on Monday before having surprisingly good agreement on Wednesday. Have stuck close to the Superblend through this portion of the forecast. After slightly below normal temperatures on Sunday, high temperatures will increase through the period, with 60s once again a possibility by the first day of March. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Condition deterioration to MVFR and eventual IFR is expected overnight as another disturbance enhances overall ascent and improves the moisture supply. Mainly IFR ceilings and some isolated to scattered showers are expected through the morning. Late day improvement is anticipated with passage of the supporting shortwave, although MVFR, to low end VFR stratocu should continue. .OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions are likely with the approach and passage of a cold front on Friday night and early Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for climate sites: Thu Fri -------- -------- PIT 70 (1922) 70 (1875,1906) ZZV 64 (2000) 70 (1961) MGW 68 (1996) 75 (1975) DUJ 63 (1985) 60 (1985) HLG 62 (2000) 63 (2016) PHD 69 (1975) 66 (1985) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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