Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 182204 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 604 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid weather will continue for the rest of the week. A chance of rain will return to the forecast on Thursday, with higher chances over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Isolated convection has again formed along the remnants of the stalled frontal boundary, primarily across Ohio. Likewise, convection has developed across the highest terrain of Tucker County. Weak shear and instability focusing ascent upon the diurnal upslope/upvalley areas in Tucker County should allow convection to continue there until nocturnal terrain-driven flows overwhelm ascent, thus a few more hours at most. Elsewhere, along the frontal remnants, weak development here too will likely only last a couple hours as focusing for ascent is exceedingly weak and instability is much leaner than yesterday given a warming of temperatures around 15 kft relative to yesterday. Thus, convection should fall apart overnight, resulting in generally clearing skies. Fries While yet another day of isolated storms could be possible across the same areas on Wednesday, with the anticipated coverage of any development could not justify a 20% mention at this time, and have left the forecast dry. By Wednesday afternoon an isolated 90 degree reading cannot be ruled out across southern counties, while all other locations should rise well into the 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... While a slight chance of showers can`t be ruled out Wednesday night, a more substantial shortwave should round the upper level ridge on Thursday, bringing a possibility of storms to all locations, especially across Interstate 80. There could be slightly more coverage of 90 degree temperatures on Thursday, but a more likely scenario is that more locations have the heat index rise into the 90s. Any chance of precipitation coverage will be more uniform on Friday with another wave across the ridge, and another degree or two rise in temperatures. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Minimal changes were made to the extended forecast. A series of shortwaves will continue to cross the region, with more coverage indicated on Saturday and Sunday. Tuesday could be the first day with the potential for dry weather areawide, but with the unpredictability in the pattern, this could certainly change. Seasonably warm temperatures will ease off slightly through the period. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR forecast for the most part through the TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, but coverage/duration will not warrant mention in TAFs. Some valley fog will again be possible overnight as well, with LBE/ZZV/HLG most likely to see some modest restrictions. Generally light W/NW winds can be expected. .OUTLOOK... General restrictions are not expected through the remainder of the week, although the chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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