Area Forecast Discussion
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715 FXUS61 KPBZ 221743 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 143 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers today will give way to drier and warmer weather through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Deformation precipitation around the mid-level low to our east has made no westward progress at this hour, contrary to virtually all model guidance. Satellite imagery additionally indicates no discernible westward wobble seems to be in the near future. Furthermore, mesoanalysis plots indicate the core of the mid-level cold air is settling over our CWA as we speak, which should be maximizing mid-level lapse rates. However, visible imagery indicates cumulus development across our region is still rather unimpressive. While scattered showers still seem likely to develop, their coverage is unlikely to be what was previously expected and given the weak diurnal rises in temperatures, thunder is seeming less likely in mist locations. The exception to this is likely to be along the Ohio River and Allegheny River, where the sun managed to peek out for a few minutes to add some additional instability. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Residual showers will diminish/shift eastward this eve with stabilization; however, the matured, stacked low is forecast to remain over the Mid-Atlantic Region through Monday. The chance for diurnally supported showers has thus been maintained for counties east and south of Pittsburgh. Building high pressure in the wake of the northeastward exiting low should suppress any regional shower chances by Tuesday, and warm temperature nearly 10 degrees above the average by wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to develop with general southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend approaches. POPS and above average temperature were forecast using superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... IFR conditions will generally erode this morning with the slowest improvements at KLBE and KMGW, where light NW upslope flow will allow for stratus to linger the longest. As a mid-level low drops southward and increases instability as the mid-levels cool, this should allow for better cumulus development again this afternoon. Scattered showers will develop across the area, and a few thunderstorms will be possible. Coverage of thunder will not be sufficient to include in the coded forecasts at this time. Fries .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions are possible through Monday before the upper low exits. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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