Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291859 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 259 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AFTER A WEAK SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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BULK OF CIRRUS SHIELD IS STRADDLING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY COVERED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS. THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT YET ANOTHER MORNING OF VALLEY FOG. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION RECEIVING RAINFALL TOMORROW...BUT STILL THINK THAT CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IN MODEL PROFILES...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INDICATED. THAT BEING SAID...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL NOT CARRY ANY LIKELY POPS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY NEAR OR THROUGH PIT BY 00Z. WITH CONTINUING FROPA...WILL KEEP FADING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE...LIKELY TOO LITTLE TO TAKE MUCH ADVANTAGE OF THE ARRIVAL OF UPPER CLOSED LOW DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE DRY POPS BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD FORM UP DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE INTO PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID TO NUDGE VALUES UP A DEGREE OR TWO. AS HINTED AT BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MINIMAL POP FOR SHRA TO THE EASTERN RIDGES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW ALONG WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE EXITING DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR TO PREVENT SHRA FORMATION FROM PIT ON WEST...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND LBE. TO THE WEST...ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WOULD LIFT INTO SCT CU ONLY. USED NAM H850 TEMPS TO CONSTRUCT MAX TEMP GRID...ENDING UP WITH VALUES CLOSE TO MOS. ONCE UPPER LOW EXITS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND H500 RIDGING BUILD IN...GIVING US DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES THAN THE WEST GIVEN SOME LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. CL
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ECMWF COMING A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ON TIMING OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FROPA ON FRIDAY. GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE...BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY AND ALSO INSERTED A CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME DISAGREEMENT THEREAFTER WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SINKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL RIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON FOR NOW. IN ANY CASE...MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. CL
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST...WITH MVFR/IFR MORNING FOG IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. AFTER MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH GREATER COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. AT THIS POINT...HAVE GONE WITH VCSH AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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