Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 041130 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 630 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the week, with much colder air arriving for late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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No changes were needed for the predawn update. Previous... As the surface high shifts east later today increasing mid and high level moisture will will keep skies cloudy, as complex northern and southern stream shortwaves approach. Weak warm advection will keep temperatures near the seasonal averages this afternoon. Tonight...shortwaves in the northern and southern stream will quickly move east with a frontal boundary. As precip begins expect some wet bulbing, and this looks to allow for a rain snow mix over much of the area, with a period of freezing rain possible across the higher ridge elevations mainly in the evening. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on how long below freezing temperatures can remain in the ridges, so for now will highlight freezing rain possibility in the HWO. Elsewhere little snow accumulation is expected with weak warm advection helping temperatures to warm a bit overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... System will exit east early monday morning with precipitation ending. By later Monday night and Tuesday a strengthening low pressure area will move toward the lower Ohio Valley with rain spreading northeast across the region. Precip may start as a bit of freezing rain in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday, but strong warm advection will quickly bring plain rain for the daylight hours Tuesday. This system exits by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be near the seasonal averages through much of the period, with the exception of above average temperatures Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next widespread chance for precipitation arriving on Thursday with a potent cold front. Behind the front, the coldest air of the season will move in for Friday and into the weekend. Snow showers will continue in cold advection behind the front. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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With high pressure, albeit moisture laden, sliding over the region, some restricted cigs in stratus north of PIT will persist this morning. Otherwise, VFR and light sfc wind will prevail despite extensive mid/upr cloudiness supported by warm, moist advection in advance of an advancing shortwave. That system will spread precip and deteriorate conditions to low MVFR and IFR for tonight and early Monday. .OUTLOOK... More restrictions are likely with mid week low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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