Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 130507 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1207 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Colder temperatures will spread across the region overnight into Friday behind a departing cold front. A wintry mix is possible Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Changes for the midnight update included some adjustments to POPs over areas near, and east of Morgantown based on the latest radar trends. Residual showers in that area will continue to diminish as the supporting cold front ploughs east, and southward. Building high pressure and resultant veering and weakening of boundary layer flow should support cloud diminishment today. As cold advection in the wake of the aforementioned front will be compromised via zonal flow aloft, temperature very near the seasonal average is anticipated. Few changes were made to this portion of the forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The next-in-series of shortwaves in zonal flow is projected for a Friday night approach, and Saturday passage. That system is expected to spread a wintry mix, highlighted by freezing rain, along the aforementioned frontal boundary, which will stall, then develop toward the I 70 corridor as a warm front with the advance of the disturbance. Model trends continue to focus precip on areas south of Pittsburgh, especially the I 70 corridor and ridge zones. Ice accumulation through these areas may be problematic and are being monitored for headlines. Passage of that shortwave later on Saturday will diminish any precip and pull the front southward again. Temperature very near the average is again anticipated for Saturday night and Sunday as surface high pressure settles over the region under quasi-zonal flow aloft.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A deeper trough is progged to develop over the plains for the start of the new week. Warmer weather under the resulting rising heights over the Upper Ohio Region may be preceded by some additional freezing rain in the predawn of Monday. That HWO mention was maintained. Warmer weather is then expected to dominate once again until the trough ejects and drags a front toward the area late in the period. Superblend guidance represented this scenario well and was deviated from only in POP timing.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Expecting general mvfr conditions at all ports through dawn. There may be brief periods of ifr cigs, particularly at FKL and DUJ. The low clouds will begin to dissipate during the post-dawn hours of the morning, and all ports should return to vfr conditions by afternoon. The exception will be fkl and duj which will remain under a stratocu deck throughout the day. West-northwest winds will turn to the north-northeast as the day progresses. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are expected through early next week as a series of disturbances cross the region.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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