Area Forecast Discussion
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620 FXUS61 KPBZ 271606 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1206 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper low pressure will maintain cool temperatures and the possibility for an isolated shower or two north of interstate 80 today. Dry Wednesday, before showers, storms, and warmer temperatures return Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Increased cumulus and isolated showers this afternoon as an upper trough axis crosses. Any convection will be mainly north of interstate 80 under the upper cold pool and downstream of Lake Erie where current water temps are in the lower 70s. Overnight temperatures will be below normal again as winds lessen and cloud coverage clears.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Ridging will build in over the region on Wednesday. Temperatures will recover to near normal with mostly sunny skies and increased warm air advection. Cloud coverage will increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching shortwave in increasingly zonal flow. The mid-level disturbance will be over the Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon which will likely lead to the development of showers and storms. Have included PoPs on Thursday, generally north of PIT, with likely PoPs over the far north. Temperatures on Thursday will continue to trend up, and winds will be gusty out of the southwest as the pressure gradient tightens.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Models are in general agreement in development of a Mississippi Valley to Eastern CONUS trough this weekend, although actual amplitude and shortwaves-in-flow continue detail and timing discrepancy. The POPS and temperature forecasts are thus close to climo as per Superblend guidance.
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&& .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR will predominate. A crossing shortwave trough will support scattered showers through the day mainly N of PIT. Otherwise, cumulus and gusty west wind can be expected as low convective thresholds are realized. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely Thursday afternoon into Saturday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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