Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 311853 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 253 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORTWAVE IS EXITING EAST BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO POP ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A BIT OF DRYING IN THE COLUMN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY MORNING. AFTER PATCHY MORNING FOG EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS UP THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES CLOSEST TO BEST DEEP MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS WEAK TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS WEST WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE SO HAVE GONE WITH A BROAD BRUSH FOR CHANCE SHOWER POPS WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE RIDGES. A DIURNAL TREND FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS VARY GREATLY ON THE IDEA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING ON THURSDAY BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN PORTS WILL MIX OUT TO VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MFVR FOG IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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