Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 050146 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 946 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE TAKES ON MORE OF A NW/SE ORIENTATION WITH TIME. THUNDER THREAT IS OVER FOR TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHER QPF WILL FALL SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. REDUCED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO NEAR TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE LAMP. UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TOWARDS NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. GOOD MOISTURE FEED SETS UP INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THINK HEAVIEST RAIN TOTALS WILL FALL SOUTH OF CWA...BUT WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR RAIN TOTALS IN LOW FFG PATCH IN MARION/MONONGALIA COUNTIES. LITTLE CHANGE TO THURSDAY FORECAST FOR NOW. CL
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH FOCUS ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHWARD WILL SLOWLY PIVOT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE PREVAILING IFR FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH UPSTREAM TRENDS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE EARLY TOMORROW BUT DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FLOURISH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A COLD FRONT ON SAT NIGHT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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