Area Forecast Discussion
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948 FXUS61 KPBZ 302155 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 555 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday, followed by much cooler temperatures through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Warm and humid conditions expected overnight in southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Large closed mid level circulation will move toward the Western Great Lakes later Monday, with a strong shortwave moving northeast ahead of the main low. This will help push an occluding front across the region during the afternoon. Have updated the HWO for the slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms from SPC, with impressive wind fields, only question remains exact timing and amount of available CAPE. Outside of thunderstorms increasing pressure gradient with daytime mixing will allow for gusty winds, with cooler temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The front will clear the area Monday evening, with showers diminishing. Strong cold air advection will dive in behind the exiting system, bringing more clouds and the risk for additional showers. The closed circulation aloft will sweep east through Wednesday morning with cooler temperatures and shower chances mainly north of Pittsburgh. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models remain in good agreement that a southern stream trough digging into the Lower Mississippi Valley will begin to spread moisture north toward the region by later Wednesday. Showers will be in the forecast into Sunday as a mean mid level trough or closed low slowly shifts northeast toward New England. Temperatures will trend 5 to 10 degrees below the seasonal average into the weekend. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Isolated showers have developed north and east of Pittsburgh this afternoon, as well as eastern Ohio. Still think that coverage is too low to include precipitation mention in the TAFs except for FKL/DUJ, which is downstream of most showers. Skies should go mostly clear this evening and overnight, with clouds moving in early Monday morning with a cold front later in the day. The cold front will bring restrictions in showers/thunderstorms to all terminals, although timing will be after 18Z Monday at some locations. Strong south-southwesterly winds are expected through the forecast period, with a lull in gusts during the evening hours. This will create crosswind issues at several sites. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible again with Thursday low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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