Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261342 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 842 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in today ending the flurries and snow showers. Rain chances return with a weak crossing disturbance Monday, and with a Tuesday warm front. A late Wednesday cold front will return wintry weather for the last half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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First images of visible satellite coming in show clouds blanketing the local forecast area, but little south and west of the area. These mid-deck clouds reside near the base of the snow growth layer. This will keep at least flurries in the forecast through early this afternoon as every bit of moisture is squeezed out. The Laurel and Chestnut Ridges and north of I-80 could still see a quick, light accumulation but little to no accumulation is expected elsewhere. High pressure at the surface is building in from the southwest. This will continue to erode the aforementioned cloud cover and snow shower activity. By late this afternoon, mostly sunny skies should be seen through a majority of the forecast area. Temperatures, held back initially by the pool of cold air keeping the clouds overhead, will increase to near-normal values later this afternoon. Mostly clear skies will carry into the night, but high clouds will begin to increase in advance of the next, weak disturbance arriving Monday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak shortwave is progged to cross the OH and TN Valley regions late tonight and Monday. This wave and warm advection could result in some light rain, or possibly a brief period of light snow at the onset. Maintained chance pops as confidence in precip occurrence is limited. A warm front is progged to lift north across the region late Monday night and Tuesday with better shower chances. Periods of showers are then expected through Wednesday as several shortwaves cross the area in SW flow ahead of a deepening upper trough and surface low across the Midwest. Elevated instability in place Tue night with a crossing shortwave and increasing shear could result in some thunderstorms. The low`s associated cold front is expected to advance across the area by late Wednesday with showers. A few gusty thunderstorms are possible with increasing shear and strong winds aloft. Moderating temperatures are expected each day, with readings around 20 degrees above average by mid week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Broad upper troughing is progged to set up through late week. This along with lake and terrain enhancement should keep snow shower chances in the forecast. A reinforcing trough on Friday could result in a period of steady snow for some areas. The trough is expected to shift E of the area by Saturday with ridging building in. Below average temperatures are expected through the period. Used manually modified Superblend guidance to account for uncertainty and model differences, with a downward adjustment to temperatures late week in cold advection. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Intermittent light snow showers or flurries will continue to fall out of the mid-deck through early afternoon. High pressure building in from the southwest will erode lingering cloud cover through the evening. Winds will back slightly to the southwest through the day, but should generally remain 10kts or less. High clouds will then increase tonight, ahead of a weak disturbance set to arrive Monday. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions will be possible again Tuesday morning as the next weather system impacts the region.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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