Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271312 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 912 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Areas of crossing low pressure will result in periodic shower chances through early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Made some generally minor changes to PoP grids for the remainder of the morning as a shortwave and weakening MCS continue across the region. Previous discussion follows... Improvement is expected later today as shortwave ridging ensues in the wake of the showers. Areas S of I 70 could see isold/sct aftn showers/storms redevelop in proximity to a a stalled sfc boundary. SPC outlooks have areas S of the PA/WV border in a slight risk for severe storms, though warmth aloft and limited daytime heating should limit this potential. Better chances continue farther S of the boundary. Temperatures should average near or a few degrees above the seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave crossing the upper Midwest and Great Lakes ahead of an approaching surface low is forecast to increase shower/thunderstorm chances again on Sunday. The low`s associated cold front should support further showers/storms into the night, with improvement on Monday as high pressure ridging rapidly slides across the area. Temperatures generally will remain just above the seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad upper troughing is progged across the NE CONUS and Great Lakes region through the period. Shortwaves rotating through the trough will provide occasional shower chances through mid week until surface high pressure builds under the trough by late week. Temperatures should average near to a few degrees below seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An area of showers with a few isolated storms will continue to cross the area and be east of the area by noon. Behind the rain, upstream observations show MVFR/VFR ceilings, and have put in a period of MVFR for most sites through the morning. This afternoon there is a slight chance of shower/storm development at MGW but farther north conditions will be too stable with the ridge axis over the forecast area. .Outlook... Rain and restriction potential will return with Sunday low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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