Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 051600 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1100 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry weather is expected today with building high pressure. Low pressure is expected to result in precipitation across the region Tuesday, with much colder temperatures and snow showers for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Building high pressure should result in dry weather for the rest of the day, though moisture below a temperature inversion observed on morning soundings should maintain mostly cloudy skies. Highs should be near the seasonal averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The next system, currently back near southwest Texas this morning, will lift northeastward with the help of a digging system of the northern Plains. Plenty of moisture will stream northward from the Gulf with this system, but much of the guidance has a secondary low developing along the east coast, which will rob some of this energy from us. Regardless, we are expecting a surge in warm temperatures aloft to support mainly rain across the region with a brief mix at onset possible, especially north of Pittsburgh. This may be another good set-up for some icing in the ridges, much like last evening, as cold air is reinforced with in southeasterly upslope flow. Have mentioned this threat in the hwo and will let the next shift analyze the hi res model data to get a better handle on duration of the event. With the decent model consensus and progged lift, have maintained the categorical PoPs areawide through Tuesday night. A changeover to snow is possible late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning but with westerly flow for much of Wednesday, and subsidence aloft conditions should dry out before the more notable cold air filters southward for the end of the week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The active weather pattern continues as a strong cold front moves across the region on Thursday, bringing the coldest air of the season so far. Virtually all snow is expected with the passage, although there will be little accumulation associated with the boundary itself. Cold advection snow showers are then expected to continue through Friday night, ending as flurries north of Pittsburgh Saturday morning. Best accumulation chances during this period will be along/north of I-80 and along the ridges. Temperatures may recover somewhat thereafter, such that the next system Sunday into Monday may have more rain involved than snow. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Building high pressure this afternoon will lift ceilings back to VFR and allow the wind to diminish to under 10 knots. Condition deterioration can be expected again early on Tuesday as another fast-moving low spreads precip over the region. .OUTLOOK... A strong cold front will bring more restrictions by Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 07/15 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.