Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 101739 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 139 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS...AND WILL SWING INTO CWA TODAY. TOO LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN MOST CASES FOR PRECIP...AS 12Z SOUNDING CONFIRMS LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE 650MB OR SO. RIDGES MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH TO POP A FEW SHRA THOUGH...AND EVEN A TSRA OR TWO. KEPT PREVIOUS POP GRIDS INTACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT AND HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY RISE IN ITS WAKE. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY. AT THIS TIME...MOST OF SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD. MODELS ARE SHOWING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER INDIANA AND NW OHIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RACE EASTWARD AS EVENING APPROACHES. A COUPLE OF FACTORS WILL BE IMPORTANT ON WHERE THIS COMPLEX GOES. FIRST...MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A HUGE DIP IN THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD...KEEPING THE 500MB PATTERN ZONAL. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. SECONDLY...MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. OBVIOUSLY...THIS ENTIRE SETUP IS STILL DAYS AWAY... SO MANY CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP UP ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS BEGIN TO SAG BOUNDARY THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZING. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE LONG TERM WILL END COOLER AND DRIER. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAINLY JUST SCT-BKN CU EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SUPPORT TO FIRE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RIDGES. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH SPOTTY MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR UNDERNEATH A SHOWER. EXPECTING A ROUND OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH SPOTS LIKE MGW...FKL...AND DUJ COULD REACH LIFR. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13-14Z WITH SCT VFR CU ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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