Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250539 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 139 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonal under high pressure through Sunday. A cold front brings rain and scattered thunderstorms on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... High pressure will bring clear skies and seasonably cool temperatures through Sunday. Any patchy valley fog early morning will quickly burn off after sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Clouds will be on the increase Sunday night in advance of a cold front that will cross the region Monday afternoon. Continued to inch pops up in the forecast. Depending on the exact timing that the front comes through, cannot rule out the potential for some strong thunderstorms considering the respectable wind shear and instability that could be present. The bulk of the rainfall should be through the area after Monday evening, with a reinforcing shot of cold air arriving Monday night into Tuesday. Although warm advection will bring warmer temperatures on Monday, the coldest high temperatures of the season so far are forecast on Tuesday. Widespread highs in the 60s are expected, and isolated locations could remain in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Both the 00Z and 12Z runs of the ECMWF kept a trough across the eastern United States throughout the forecast period, which was an outlier solution compared to the GFS, Canadian, and ensembles solutions, and was not used for this part of the forecast. As an upper trough moves across the region Wednesday and Thursday, cloud cover will remain across the area. Although the wind direction is still a bit uncertain those two days, lake effect rain showers will be possible while northwest flow develops off Lake Erie. By Friday winds will develop an easterly component, which will allow sunny skies to return. Slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... General VFR can then be expected through Sunday with exception for some MVFR/IFR fog at southern terminals through sunrise, where boundary layer moisture is more likely to pool in the wake of the front. North wind will gradually acquire an easterly component, but remain light as the surface high settles toward the area. VFR conditions will return to all sites by Sunday morning as high pressure holds through the weekend. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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