Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240410 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1210 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure should maintain dry weather tonight north of I 68. Low pressure tracking along the East Coast should result in periodic rain chances east of I 79 for the start of the new work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Surface ridging should maintain dry weather overnight north of I 68. A deepening low is progged to track toward the SE CONUS late tonight, with an inverted surface trough extending to WV/MD. Increasing moisture and ascent on the nrn periphery of the low should return rain chances to areas S of I 68 overnight. Lows should be near or a few degrees above the seasonal average. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The cut-off upper-level low will dig further into the southeastern U.S. Monday. As this occurs, very little northwest progression of rain chances will be achieved. Models hinting at weak ascent streaming northward in the form of a deformation band, but activity along this will largely be negated by the presence of low-level dry air re-enforced by downsloping flow. As a result, will keep a tight gradient of PoPs along the Ridges, with only slight chance west. The best chances of rain outside of the higher elevations should come Tuesday as the low turns the corner and begins to fill over the Mid-Atlantic. Strong easterly flow will continue to advect moisture into the eastern facing upslopes, and some rain may be able to creep east to west over the higher elevations. The weakening low will then be pushed away by a building ridge through the upper Ohio Valley late Tuesday, establishing areawide dry conditions by Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ridging and rising heights in response to an approaching Midwestern trough should result in dry and warm weather for mid week. The flow is progged to amplify by late week as broad low pressure develops over the western CONUS. One cold front will stream through Thursday with showers and thunderstorms likely. This system will then open the door to more disturbances keeping the forecast wet through the weekend. Temperatures will be above average through the extended. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will maintain VFR and light northeast to east sfc wind into Monday morning. By Monday afternoon easterly winds will pick up to 10-20 kt and MVFR ceilings will begin to affect southern TAF sites, although widespread rain is expected to remain farther to the southeast. .Outlook... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with mid week low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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