Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 250539
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
139 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016
Dry and seasonal under high pressure through Sunday. A cold front
brings rain and scattered thunderstorms on Monday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure will bring clear skies and seasonably cool
temperatures through Sunday. Any patchy valley fog early morning
will quickly burn off after sunrise.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clouds will be on the increase Sunday night in advance of a cold
front that will cross the region Monday afternoon. Continued to inch
pops up in the forecast. Depending on the exact timing that the
front comes through, cannot rule out the potential for some strong
thunderstorms considering the respectable wind shear and instability
that could be present. The bulk of the rainfall should be through
the area after Monday evening, with a reinforcing shot of cold air
arriving Monday night into Tuesday. Although warm advection will
bring warmer temperatures on Monday, the coldest high temperatures
of the season so far are forecast on Tuesday. Widespread highs in
the 60s are expected, and isolated locations could remain in the 50s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Both the 00Z and 12Z runs of the ECMWF kept a trough across
the eastern United States throughout the forecast period, which
was an outlier solution compared to the GFS, Canadian, and
ensembles solutions, and was not used for this part of the
forecast. As an upper trough moves across the region Wednesday
and Thursday, cloud cover will remain across the area. Although
the wind direction is still a bit uncertain those two days, lake
effect rain showers will be possible while northwest flow
develops off Lake Erie. By Friday winds will develop an easterly
component, which will allow sunny skies to return. Slightly below
normal temperatures are expected through the period.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
General VFR can then be expected through Sunday with exception
for some MVFR/IFR fog at southern terminals through sunrise, where
boundary layer moisture is more likely to pool in the wake of the
front. North wind will gradually acquire an easterly component,
but remain light as the surface high settles toward the area.
VFR conditions will return to all sites by Sunday morning as high
pressure holds through the weekend.
.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front.