Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211821 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 221 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gain control tonight resulting in drier, and more comfortable conditions through the first half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Only a few showers lingering this afternoon, primarily along the higher terrain of the southeast. Edge of mid-level cloud deck is progressing quickly to the east and should push through the bulk of area by this evening. Lower dewpoints are lagging behind the cold front a little, but some western observations are already dipping below the 60 degree mark. This fresher air drawn in from the northwest will allow temperatures to drop to near average overnight. The upper-level trough axis will push through tonight. Northwest flow over the Great Lakes, and modest cold advection, may promote a few isolated showers overnight north of I-80. These will end by sunrise. Expect plenty of sunshine Monday as high pressure regains control of the area. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Nearly zonal flow in the mid levels will transition to ridging, with the 500 mb ridge axis passing through early Wednesday. Surface high pressure will remain in control, keeping the weather dry. Little in the way of cloud cover is expected through Tuesday night, with some high clouds increasing Wednesday behind the ridge. Temperatures will be close to climatology on Tuesday, and then rise a few degrees above on Wednesday. Dewpoints will also start to increase at the end of the period as low level flow turns southwest.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The main weather maker this period is a cold front currently expected to cross on Friday. Humidity will continue to increase ahead of it, with shower and thunderstorm chances returning for Thursday and Thursday night. The situation may be similar to the front which just crossed our region, since the main shortwave will likely remain off to the north like this past system. Dry weather returns Friday night and continues through the weekend with the return of high pressure. Temperatures will remain near or just above seasonal levels through the period.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... With the cold front pushing east of the area and drier air moving in, ceilings are gradually lifting. The back edge of the mid-level cloud deck is moving through eastern Ohio and will creep through western Pennsylvania by this evening. West winds will occasionally gust to near 15kts through the evening before subsiding tonight. Additional restrictions early Monday morning as low-level moisture and a passing upper trough may develop MVFR/IFR stratus. Still some question as to how far south these low clouds are able to reach. Opted to keep a scattered stratus deck in for KZZV/KMGW in the pre-dawn. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Outside of pre-dawn fog possible in the middle of the week. The next chance for restrictions will come with another front Thursday into Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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