Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201459 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1059 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN INTO LATE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH TONIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE...ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO DIURNAL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WERE MADE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS... STRATUS IN COLD ADVECTION REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD MIX OUT SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRODUCING LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED CHANCE POPS TO JUST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...AS DOUBTS ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AND USED A BLEND OF MODEL MOS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES WILL EXIT QUICKLY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ON FRIDAY WITH A MOISTURE STARVED REINFORCING COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. RAISED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT IN GRIDS WITH FRONT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. BEHIND FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR SKIES. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...FROST LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN THE RIDGES. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SET UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ADVANCING SHORTWAVES ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINTAINED NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND PLACEMENT OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN QUESTION. USED WPC BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE WITH DOWNWARD TWEAKS TO POPS TO HELP SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERVASIVE STRATO-CU CLOUD DECK IS STUBBORN TO ERODE THIS MORNING. HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH. THAT TROUGH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TO PORTS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT...SO INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION THERE. TAX .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE SUNDAY WARM FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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