Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291645 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1145 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Several crossing disturbances will result in periodic rain chances in the forecast through the mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Clearing seen earlier today has filled in with a weak cu field, paralleling the southwesterly flow into the area. The southwest flow and increased increased solar insolation should further boost already above-normal temperatures to near record levels with readings commonly 15-20 degrees above average. Another surface low originating near Texas will be pulled up the Mississippi Valley and along the Ohio Valley late tonight. This will again bring increasing clouds along with organized rain that will last through Wednesday. The rain will be supported by deep moisture, ascent along the deformation zone, and low level jet support is expected with it`s passage. Location of primary rain band will be dependent on the exact track of the low and the aforementioned deformation zone. Latest NAM/GFS/SREF trend the low further west than the previous forecast, bringing the best rain chances almost directly over Pittsburgh and through the heart of the forecast area. Have adjusted PoPs to account for this trend, but overall, the forecast remains largely the same. Everyone should see at least some rain from late tonight through Wednesday. Temps will remain well above average tonight ahead of the rain. The arrival of the low and associated cold front make Wednesday high temps a little more difficult, but they will remain above average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rain will last through much of the day Wednesday, gradually drying out late Wednesday into Thursday. The main low is progged to move across Eastern Canada by Thursday and Friday, with broad upper troughing expected across the Northeast CONUS. This pattern should result in periodic rain and snow shower chances mainly N of I 80 where the best moisture and upper support is progged. Temperatures are expected to average around 15 degrees above seasonal levels early in the period, but should return to near or just below average by late week after the passage of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper low and trough is expected to exit the region Saturday. NAEFS ensembles depict a less amplified pattern across the Northern CONUS thereafter through early next week, with occasional weak crossing shortwaves. There are significant operational model differences in the handling of a SW CONUS trough and it`s eventual evolution and impact on the Upper Ohio Valley weather. Preferred to maintain a forecast close to the less amplified NAEFS solution, resulting in only low chances for rain and snow showers and seasonal temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR to MVFR cu field developing in the earlier clearing. This should continue to lift through the afternoon and scatter out late this evening. VFR conditions will then begin to deteriorate as another low pressure system approaches from the southwest. Rain will spread reduced visibilities and lower ceilings into the area from southwest to northeast, with at least some restrictions expected everywhere. IFR conditions should exist around daybreak Wednesday, with gradual improvement possible through the afternoon hours. Surface flow generally around 10kts will contain occasional gusts through the evening. Another strong low-level jet will accompany the low tonight, but am less convinced on LLWS being a widespread issue. Will opt to leave this out for the time being. As the low pivots through Wednesday, a windshift to the west will occur. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are again likely, especially over FKL and DUJ as colder air moves back over the region during the latter half of the week.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures for 11/29: Location Temp Year Pittsburgh 67 1927 DuBois 73 2005 Zanesville 67 2006 Morgantown 71 2005 Wheeling 69 2005 New Philadelphia 69 2005 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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