Area Forecast Discussion
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889 FXUS61 KPBZ 180549 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1249 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions are largely expected until the next frontal system crosses the region Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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High clouds cresting the building ridge will continue to push east of the forecast area, leaving little more than clear skies behind. Winds will largely remain light, allowing temperatures to radiate down, but lows are expected to stay well-above normal. The ridge axis crosses later this afternoon, and high clouds will begin to stream in again. These are ahead of a weak, and slow moving system that will approach from the southwest tonight. With the peak of the warm air overhead and ample sunshine through the early afternoon, temperatures will soar into the 60s for many locations. This could approach record warmth for several climate sites (see Climate section below). Although a fair amount of model consistency has been noted with tonight`s system, latest guidance has slowed it`s eastward progression. The 00z GFS is a bit of an outlier, tracking the low further north than it`s brethren. Outside of the GFS, the model consensus is leaning towards more of a southern track, keeping the best rain chances across southern WV. The forecast has been modified towards this trend, cutting back PoPs and clouds through the middle of the forecast area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridging should maintain dry weather through Saturday. An upper low across the Southern Plains is progged to open into a trough and track across the Mid Atlantic region Saturday night and early Sunday. This along with a weak surface trough approaching from the north, should result in an increase in clouds, along with rain chances S of I 70. A strong ridge returns later Sunday and Monday with dry weather expected. Temperatures are expected to average 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The ridge should maintain dry and warm weather through early next week. A weakening trough advancing from the Plains is progged for approach and passage late Tuesday, returning shower chances to the forecast. Weak ridging should maintain dry weather by mid week before another approaching Midwestern returns rain chances for the end of the week. Temperatures are expected to continue to average 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR and light wind can be expected overnight as high pressure slides across the area. A passing low-level jet will necessitate the inclusion of LLWS for the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise, no restrictions are expected through the duration of the TAF period. Cloud coverage will increase later today with the best chance of any precipitation or MVFR CIG restrictions at KMGW. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday cold front.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Record High Temperatures February 18: Pittsburgh, PA 66 (2011) Zanesville, OH 64 (2011/1994) Morgantown, WV 73 (1981) DuBois, PA 57 (1981) Wheeling, WV 60 (2008) New Philadelphia, OH 62 (1961)
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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