Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240946 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 546 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking along the East Coast should result in periodic rain chances mainly east of I 79 early in the week. Dry and warm weather is expected with mid week high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Made minor adjustments to hourly grids based on radar, obs, and near term models for the pre dawn update. Previous...A Southeast CONUS low is progged to begin tracking NE along the East Coast later today. Increasing moisture on the northern periphery of the low, ascent, and an inverted surface should result in likely to categorical rain chances near and S of I 68 today. Included low chance POPs E of PIT late in the day as the nwd track of the low begins, though dry low levels in E flow should help limit this potential. Seasonal highs are expected N-W of PIT where an increase in clouds should occur later in the day, with below average readings S-E where more predominant clouds cover/rain is expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Rain chances are expected to spread nwd east of the I 79 corridor through Tuesday as the low moves up the East Coast. Maintained likely to categorical numbers in the WV/MD ridges where the most favorable moisture and ascent is progged in proximity to the low. Rain chances should end Tuesday night as the low begins to pull away from the coast. Building ridging on Wednesday should result in dry and warm weather, with temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 expected. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ridging is progged to shift east early in the period as a trough advances out of the Midwest, returning rain chances to the forecast. Gradually increasing heights and SW upper flow are expected through the weekend in response to a deepening wrn CONUS trough. Embedded shortwaves in the SW flow should result in periodic shower/thunderstorm chances from late week through the weekend. Temperatures are expected to average 10-20 degrees above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions are forecast for most of the TAF period. Upper level low pressure will track over the Deep South today. Easterly flow will continue to bring moisture along the ridges and areas mainly southeast of PIT. Most rain chances will remain east of a LBE- MGW line through tonight. MVFR ceilings may show up overnight at locations like LBE, DUJ, and FKL. Other terminals will see increasingly lower VFR ceilings. East winds will pick up to 10 to 20 knots by afternoon. .Outlook... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with mid week low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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