Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 240946
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
546 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
Low pressure tracking along the East Coast should result in
periodic rain chances mainly east of I 79 early in the week.
Dry and warm weather is expected with mid week high pressure.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made minor adjustments to hourly grids based on radar, obs, and
near term models for the pre dawn update. Previous...A
Southeast CONUS low is progged to begin tracking NE along the
East Coast later today. Increasing moisture on the northern
periphery of the low, ascent, and an inverted surface should
result in likely to categorical rain chances near and S of I 68
today. Included low chance POPs E of PIT late in the day as the
nwd track of the low begins, though dry low levels in E flow
should help limit this potential. Seasonal highs are expected
N-W of PIT where an increase in clouds should occur later in the
day, with below average readings S-E where more predominant
clouds cover/rain is expected.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Rain chances are expected to spread nwd east of the I 79
corridor through Tuesday as the low moves up the East Coast.
Maintained likely to categorical numbers in the WV/MD ridges
where the most favorable moisture and ascent is progged in
proximity to the low. Rain chances should end Tuesday night as
the low begins to pull away from the coast.
Building ridging on Wednesday should result in dry and warm
weather, with temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 expected.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging is progged to shift east early in the period as a trough
advances out of the Midwest, returning rain chances to the
forecast. Gradually increasing heights and SW upper flow are
expected through the weekend in response to a deepening wrn
CONUS trough. Embedded shortwaves in the SW flow should result
in periodic shower/thunderstorm chances from late week through
the weekend. Temperatures are expected to average 10-20 degrees
above seasonal levels.
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions are forecast for most of the TAF period. Upper
level low pressure will track over the Deep South today.
Easterly flow will continue to bring moisture along the ridges
and areas mainly southeast of PIT. Most rain chances will
remain east of a LBE- MGW line through tonight. MVFR ceilings
may show up overnight at locations like LBE, DUJ, and FKL.
Other terminals will see increasingly lower VFR ceilings. East
winds will pick up to 10 to 20 knots by afternoon.
The next chance for general restrictions is expected with mid
week low pressure.
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