Area Forecast Discussion
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781 FXUS61 KPBZ 200556 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 156 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Advancing low pressure will spread more widespread rain over the Upper Ohio Valley Region tonight and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Minor tweaks to PoPs and sky cover as forecast for the remainder of the night is generally on track. Previous discussion... Low pressure developing along the front stretched over the Ohio Valley will dig northeastward as mid level troughing amplifies over the Plains tonight. Current convection over southern Ohio is slowly eroding, while rain showers north of the convection congeal further. Expecting this batch of moderate rain showers to follow the warm front lifting northeastward across eastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. This is serves as the location for categorical PoPs tonight, along with the passage of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Leaned closer to OHRFC guidance for the QPF of this system which projects a general one to just-over-two inches over the next 48 hours. The Storm Prediction Center has included the immediate area in a "marginal/5 % severe risk on Thursday due to the shear levels on the flank of the negatively tilting upper trough. Limitations will be imposed by instability levels, which do not look healthy for the situation depending on model; hence, no hazardous mention will be included for now. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The frontal precipitation will drift eastward Friday morning with additional showers developing behind the boundary in the strong cold air advection and passage of the upper level trough axis. Much colder weather will follow for the weekend as the upper trough develops over the Eastern CONUS. Scattered showers will remain in the forecast through at least Saturday morning, with focus shifting to the north and ridge zones, as cold advection continues and shortwaves in northwest flow traverse the area. By Saturday afternoon, the much drier air aloft, which will work to suppress inversion heights, will eventually make it closer to the surface, bringing and end to any lingering showers. Still expect to see a good deal of cu over the area Saturday with the cold pool aloft remaining anchored over the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry, but seasonably cool conditions will return Sunday as warmer air slowly works back into the area. Ensemble solutions continue to push a weak front through the area sometime on Monday, which may provide another risk for scattered showers. High pressure builds in for the remainder of the long term. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Convective complex in southeast Ohio is moving towards western PA at this time, bringing brief IFR conditions in heavy rain to BVI over the next hour, and possibly PIT soon thereafter if it holds together. FKL may be impacted with IFR in a couple of hours as well as lighter rain develops. Mostly VFR conditions will hold southeast of a PIT/DUJ line. Behind an advancing warm front, conditions will remain VFR in the warm sector today as rain coverage temporarily wanes, although MVFR ceilings may hold on north of I-80. As the cold front advances this afternoon, coverage of showers and storms will increase from west to east, eventually overspreading the region tonight. Flight conditions will deteriorate through MVFR to IFR by the end of the TAF period. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Periodic restrictions are expected through Saturday as low pressure and subsequent upper troughing cross the area.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.