Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301559 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1059 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Mild today with showers ahead of an approaching cold front, with much colder temperatures into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Quick update late this morning to make minor adjustments to hourly temperatures and throughout the day and increase PoPs and winds along the cold front as it crosses the region tonight. Prev discussion follows.. Rain beginning to fill in from eastern Ohio and points east a little more as of 6am. Saturation of the low-levels has been slow, as a layer of dry air evident on last night`s sounding has delayed the onset of steadier rain. Warm, moist advection will continue ahead of the center of the surface low that will advance northeast up the Ohio Valley today. This will keep rain in the forecast for most locations through the afternoon, although an abrupt back edge is evident near Zanesville, OH. Hi-res models handling this back edge fairly well, bringing it near Pittsburgh by early this afternoon, before another shortwave trough and associated cold front returns additional rain showers this afternoon/evening. The warm advection will push temperatures more than 15 degrees above average today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Gradually colder though the period as a mid level trough slowly moves across eastern Canada. While 850mb temps will fall toward -7C, low level flow will remain west to southwest into Friday night, keeping bulk of lake effect snow showers well north of I-80. A fairly dry column will keep any accumulations in the ridges and north of I-80 light. Flow may turn a bit northwest Saturday so have maintained low snow shower chances. Temperatures will move to average or just below through the period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry high pressure will end any snow showers saturday night into early Sunday. Next fast moving shortwave looks to arrive with mostly rain showers later Sunday into early Monday. Models then continue to have trouble with timing of shortwaves and cold air moving east into mid week, and a blend of models was used for the latter part of the forecast. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will deteriorate to widespread MVFR/local IFR conditions as low pressure center advances up the Ohio Valley. A low level jet is progged to result in a brief LLWS potential for ports S-E of PIT later this morning also before quickly exiting. Another wave and associated cold front is expected to cross the area this evening, maintaining the MVFR to local IFR conditions. A wind shift from S to W is expected with the frontal passage. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are possible through the weekend especially N of I 70 with broad upper troughing and cold W-NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.