Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 140014 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 814 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND COOL WEATHER THOUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE RAPIDLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION UNDER NORTHWESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY POST-FRONTAL FLOW. SOURCE REGION AIR MASS DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THESE SEEM LIKELY TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN THE THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SLACKEN OFF AND TURN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL START TO LIMIT THE LAKE INFLUENCE ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED DISSIPATION OF STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PRIMED FOR STRONG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALLS...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS AROUND THE RIDGES...WHERE THE SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY BECOME MOST EASILY DISSOCIATED FROM THE MORE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. AS SUCH...FALLS TOWARD THE DEWPOINTS AND THEN DEWING/FROSTING OUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD MORNING AS TEMPERATURES TRACK TOWARD THE MID 30S. IT WOULD SEEM GARRETT COUNTY SHOULD BE AT THE MOST RISK FOR FROST GIVEN ITS EARLIER CLEARING THAN TUCKER COUNTY AND EARLIER MIX OUT OF SURFACE MOISTURE. AS SUCH...A FROST ADVISORY WAS HOISTED OVERNIGHT FOR THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE AMONGST THE RIDGES...IT WOULD SEEM THE LOWER ELEVATION OF THE VALLEYS WESTMORELAND/FAYETTE MAY LIMIT THEIR COOLING POTENTIAL...AND IN PRESTON COUNTY...THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE MUCH LESS PROTECTED...THEREFORE LIMITING THEIR COOLING POTENTIAL. FOR THESE REASONS...ONLY GARRETT COUNTY WAS INCLUDED IN THE FROST ADVISORY. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRES WL KEEP DRY AND COOL WEA ACRS THE AREA THRU MON. AN ADVNG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL RTN SHWR CHCS MON NGT. NUDGED POPS UP TO LIKELY N OF I 80 WHERE BEST UPR SPPRT AND MOISTURE IS PROGGED. HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO BLD IN AGAIN TUE. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG 5 TO 10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PD. LONG TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRIER AIR MOVES OVER ALL TERMINALS. SOME LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING IF WIND DROPS OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD PHENOMENON. WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIES OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... AN ADVNG CDFNT WL BRING PSBL RSTRNS MON NGT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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