Area Forecast Discussion
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761 FXUS61 KPBZ 092227 AAA AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 527 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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530PM UPDATE...UPDATED POPS AND SNOW OVERNIGHT...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ROTATING AROUND THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW...HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO GET THE ACTIVITY GOING. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF SHEAR IN THE LAYER AND THE REAL COLD AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS AND SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE I-80 COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE HIGH POPS IN THE RIDGE COUNTIES AS A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE A GOOD UPSLOPE SETUP AND COLDER AIR ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL RUN DIRECTLY INTO THE RIDGE TOPS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... BAND OF BETTER RETURNS ON RADAR NOW PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN RIDGES AND BEGINNING TO WANE. ELSEWHERE PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AS STILL SHOWN BY LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS. WHILE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH ENOUGH LAKE ENHANCED FLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTO THE RIDGES AND TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MODEL MOS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE USED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT SEEMS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING DETERMINED MORE BY FOG/MIST THAN BY SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY. GENERAL TREND IS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST OF MOST TERMINALS...BUT VISIBILITIES REMAIN IFR. HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEEPING KPIT AND TERMINALS FARTHER SOUTH IN IFR VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING. THINK THERE WILL BE A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW COULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH MIGHT BRING ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD THIS SNOW INTO THE TAFS AS OF THE 18Z TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY...FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AT FKL/DUJ OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING SNOW TOWARDS OTHER TERMINALS BY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049- 050-057>059-068-069. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021- 029-031-073-075. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074- 076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510>514. && $$

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