Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191020 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 620 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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PREDAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF TEMPS AND WEA. PREVIOUS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 3 OR 4KFT INDICATING TOO SHALLOW OF A DEPTH FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RUSHES EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WAA WILL CONTINUE WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +4 TO +7. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL SPREAD MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ALL NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS UNIMPRESSIVE. COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL STREAM NORTHWARD. WITH THE BEST ASCENSION WELL TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE BOUNDARY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MONDAY MORNING DRY. POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. BY TUESDAY MORNING...FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL BE HEADING TOWARD EASTERN PA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER LAKE ERIE. THE BROAD 50H LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON TUESDAY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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RESIDUAL SHWRS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MRNG AS INVERSION LVLS CONT TO LOWER IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID LVL TROF AXIS. OTHERWISE...COLD NW BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WL CONT TO FUEL STRATOCU DVLPMNT THROUGH THE MRNG ALTHOUGH DRY ADVCTN AND WEAKENING FLOW WL SPPRT A RISING CIG BASE. MVFR/LOW END VFR WL THUS GIVE WAY TO GENL VFR BY THIS AFTN WITH RMNG STRATOCU GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS TO THE W BY LATE DAY. .AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS TO PLAGUE THE UPR OH REGION.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/22

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