Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200809 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 409 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough will provide more comfortable conditions through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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No changes to the overnight period. Models are portraying a drier day in accordance with minor height rises aloft, behind an exiting shortwave. The drier airmass will make it feel much more comfortable today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper trough will remain situated across the Great Lakes through Wednesday before departing to the east and being replaced by weak upper ridging/nearly zonal flow for Thursday. With cooling aloft Wednesday, and one last wave digging southward on western flank of exiting main trough, could see a shower or storm develop with daytime heating. Models are still not in complete agreement with the risk for activity on Wednesday, so will keep PoPs in the low chance/slight chance range. Models generally agree on rising heights and dry conditions on Thursday with temperatures moderating to near or above seasonal averages and humidity levels increasing. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The progressive flow will make any long term forecast difficult, and the models resolve the evolution of a potential tropical system differently. With this in consideration, have opted to stay close to a blend of guidance. By Friday, deeper moisture will support higher PoPs and warming temperatures until an upper level trough deepens over the central CONUS late. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... General VFR conditions through the period. The exception will be at FKL and DUJ late tonight and through a portion of the morning hours, as MVFR SC is possible. Wind will strengthen by late morning, with gusts to 20kts possible. .Outlook... Brief restrictions are possible through mid week as an upper trough slides over the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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