Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250432 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1232 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weekend warm temperature will be marred by increasing rain chances on Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Changes for the midnight update included upward adjustments to overnight lows given cloud cover and ongoing warm advection. Readings were tweaked toward the much warmer NAM and high res models in conjunction with current trends. Otherwise, shortwave ridging on the van of a cutoff Plains low suppresses will suppress widespread precip for most of the region. The exception may be the I 80 corridor where the encroachment of a front in conjunction with a northern stream shortwave may support some isolated, to scattered showers today. With the Upper Ohio firmly entrenched under the ridge/warm sector, warm high-temperature can be expected with readings about 20 degrees above the average forecast, with only minor moderation projected along the I 80 counties as the aforementioned front sags across that area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As the cutoff low over the Plains digs eastward this weekend, shortwave ridging will suppress widespread rain and maintain warmth for the immediate area. Moist flow and that systems occluded front will degrade that inhibition on Sunday and POPs will be on the increase, albeit with questionable timing given model discrepancy in handling the cutoff low. For now, have continued the ongoing categorical pops, but have adjusted timing and the mention of thunder given instability projections. Renewed shortwave ridging in the wake of that weakening system, and in advance of another midwestern shortwave in timed to provide a break in precip for Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Zonal and split flow is forecast to maintain above average temperature for the remainder of the week. The next, best chance for precip is expected as another cutoff low emerges from the Plains by the end of the period. Tweaked Superblend was used in long-term forecast construction.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected tonight under shortwave ridging. Moisture pooling along a slow SWD moving cold front should result in MVFR ceilings over NW PA by Saturday morning, continuing through the day. Ceilings should lower elsewhere as the front moves further south, though VFR levels should be maintained. A low level jet across nrn OH/nw PA should result in a LLWS potential overnight until the jet diminishes Sat morning. Outlook... Restrictions are possible N of PIT Sat night with a warm front. Widespread restrictions are likely Sunday/Sunday night with crossing low pressure, and again with a Monday night/Tuesday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15/22

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