Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 050731 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 331 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CLOSE TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MODEL DEVIATIONS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SPLIT FLOW...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW POISED TO SHUNT MOISTURE AND WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. NEAR TERM CHANGES THUS WILL INCLUDE A PRECIP PROBABILITY EXPANSION FOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE RIDGES FOR LATER TODAY...AND INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NUMBERS WILL REMAIN LOW. SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH INCREASED UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MAR THE SKY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO CUTOFF OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY PROCEED UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BOOTS IT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. GFS HAS HANDLED THESE WARM...WEAK LOWS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP BETTER THIS SUMMER...SO WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT WITH TEMPERED...COLLABORATED POPS. MONDAY NUMBERS HAVE THUS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AS THEY HAVE FOR THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MODEL ENSEMBLE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CROSSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OPTED FOR WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS GUIDANCE WERE FOR DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS AND UPWARD TWEAKS TO THE EXPECTED SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER SURFACE RIDGING ARE EXPECTED TO BE INTERRUPTED BY EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE E AND S OF PIT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME IFR. VFR STRATOCU CIGS ARE EXPECTED S OF PIT THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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