Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271945 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 345 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION A WEAK BOUNDARY OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS...MINIMAL CHANGE TO DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S ACROSS THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WITH HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH WITH A LITTLE RELIEF IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE PA/WV BORDER...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR NORTHERN EXTENT TO ADD PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA. SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. LAMP GUIDANCE BACKED OFF OF IFR FOR ALL PORTS SO MVFR WAS MADE THE PREVAILING VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM PIT NORTHWARD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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