Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 022332 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 732 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS WITH ENSEMBLE/RADAR DATA. CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL IS DECREASING AS OVERALL INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE WEAK AND FIGURE TO STAY THAT WAY...BUT STILL DO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP RAINFALL RATES IN CHECK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE WATCH AREA. WILL MAINTAIN FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. CL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY... THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO ALIGN SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY START THE FRONT MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY CLEARING ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN SECONDARILY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR TO START THE PERIOD...BUT A DROP TO MVFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FIGURED FOR TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES ACHIEVING VFR CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP AS WELL IN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. CL .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021- 509>514. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.