Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271252 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 852 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID MRNG UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF TEMPS AND OVRALL HIGHS GIVEN BREAKS IN CLD COVER. THOSE READINGS LK TO BE SUFFICIENT TO REACH SFC BASED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS...WHICH CAN ONLY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION ILLUSTRATED BY THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EVIDENT ON THIS MRNGS SOUNDING. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT TRENDS CONT TO FAVORITE A SEVERE EVENT FOR THE REGION WITH EXPECTATIONS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED. SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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