Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 120714 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 314 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Light rain chances are expected today under weakening low pressure. Mainly dry weather is expected Friday and Saturday under a ridge of high pressure.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Low level moisture in place, and a weakening surface low across SW PA, should maintain clouds and light rain/drizzle chances much of the day. The best chance of seeing precip should be along the eastern slopes of the ridges, where upslope SE flow is progged. Temperatures are expected to be near or a few degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Mainly dry weather and a gradual decrease in clouds is expected through the period under shortwave ridging. The exception will be across the higher terrain, where persistent SE flow and low level moisture should result in light rain chances through Friday. Surface winds are expected to veer to the S-SW by Saturday ending this potential. Temperatures are expected to gradually increase, reaching readings around 15 degrees above seasonal levels by Saturday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The ridge is expected to slide E Sunday as a trough advances out of the Upper Midwest. This trough should drive it`s associated cold front through Sunday afternoon or evening, with shower chances returning. Broad upper troughing is then progged to set up across the NE CONUS through early next week. Cool NW flow and the trough should result shower chances and cooler than average temperatures to start the week. Surface high pressure is progged to build across the area Tuesday as the trough exits, resulting in dry weather and seasonal temperatures through late week.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Fairly widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are expected overnight with abundant low level moisture trapped underneath an inversion, with both low ceilings and fog expected. Improvement will be slow during the remainder of the morning, with conditions improving to MVFR by late morning/midday and then VFR during the afternoon. Scattered showers may redevelop along the ridges this afternoon as well. Light winds underneath the inversion will become gusty to between 15 and 25 knots out of the southeast once mixing deepens. .Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions arrives on Sunday as a cold front approaches. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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